StormChazer

Yeah, like someone just said. A day ago it abandoned the storm altogether for everyone in TX and OK. So will want to see other models trend that way too before buying it. Still, 16 hours out from the onset of a storm, and these are the trends you want to see.

I do but I can’t post it right now. The 0Z HRRR dumps 4-5 inches in NW AR and SW MO and about 3.5-4 in Tulsa. It’s an uptick across the board.

The NAM just lost its ever loving mind. The high res version drops 6 inches in Tulsa, and the lower res drops close to a foot of snow in Tulsa….

NAM isn’t done yet, but looking to me like a NW shift right now.

12Z NAM vs 18Z NAM. I'll gladly take the 18Z 12Z 18Z

12Z Euro There's that dry slot trying to break my heart in Tulsa. 9:00PM Thursday night

GFS and GEM essentially both look about the same from their previous runs. The only differences are they are defining where that cutoff of the precip shield is going to be. It's looking right now like Stillwater to Bartlesville to just north of Joplin will be the line. But the dry slot is going to really damper someone here. So far, the Canadian and NAM are identifying the dry slot. I'd prefer it stay there and not come any closer. Thanks!

If this dry slot manifests, it will definitely limit amounts during what would be the peak of the storm. So here's to hoping that doesn't happen.

All of the high res models are moving the precip further north, widespread 2-3.5 for most everyone here.

12Z HRRR 12Z NAM I'm noticing a nice trend here.

Beginning to notice a favorable trend. It appears there will be a decent bit of energy on the northern side of this storm that benefits us. Here is some examples. Last frame of the HRRR shows the second bit of precip. About as good of a trend we can ask for under 48 hours out.

Edited to get rid of confusion! Now they are the same.

High res NAM This is midnight. I would say this is probably the best case scenario at this point that we could reasonably expect. This is midnight's totals with precip still falling.

The NAM says, "Sorry about that afternoon run, Idk what got into me".

So far, the 500mb vorticity on the NAM is looking more like the 06Z run than the 12Z run, which is good. But just getting into Wed night atm.

I want to say there's an interesting statistic that when the Canadian and ICON agree with one another, it has a very good track record. But otherwise, it's always too cold or overdoes it. It is the optomist's model, lol.

The 12Z High Res Canadian isn't going with the NAM at all. Canadian NAM

And just like that, the 12Z NAM has ALL the meteorologists biting their nails. The storm just doesn’t manifest. The precip train stays to the south of DFW and the cold air doesn’t catch it. Dry and where there is precip it’s rain. And we don’t even sniff flurries up here on that run. So here’s to hoping the NAM is out to lunch and not onto something…

Latest NAM with more with probably another 3 more hours of snowfall.

Many Mets will tell you to throw out the 06Z and 18Z Euro runs because they don’t have proper data to reflect a successful projection. I’m hoping that’s true because the 18Z euro trended south with the totals giving most of us just 1-2 inches. Crossing fingers for good news in the evening runs tonight!

One thing looks to be apparent, it’ll be a sharp gradient between the have and have-nots. I just want at least 4 in Tulsa. I don’t need 8-12(although I’d love that), just at least 4. Very doable with this setup, but I’d we can shift north a little more over the next 36 hours that’ll make me feel better.

GFS more snow, Canadian MUCH more snow.

Last nights runs did 2 things. 1) All the major models now agree on the idea of a major winter storm impacting Texas/Oklahoma in a broad but relatively same area. Beforehand, there was still some discrepancy on whether it would happen or not in the runs. 2) There was a northward shift in the precip amounts, mostly due to a broad area of snow that is expected to develop and push through most of us. These new runs put most of us in the 2-6 inch range. My rule of thumb is it usually takes at least 4 inches to be a truly memorable, nice blanket of snow on everything worth playing in etc. I’m hoping last night’s runs aren’t the needle swinging in the opposite direction only for it to move back south a little more, and instead it is a trend that the afternoon models will reinforce. I’ll continue to post precip maps etc from my weather bell account. If anyone has any requests, let me know and I’ll post it.

I'm OK with this 5 days out. I obviously want a shift north, but the fact that the EURO is hanging onto a snowstorm in and around our area is a good place to be at this stage. Now we just cross our fingers for a 50 mile shift north and we are COOKING.