NEG NAO

Also difference in timing of second later weekend wave

CMC Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

in fact GFS says snow here earlier later in weekend and CMC is later then GFS with liquid 

ICON has 3 events into early next week - first is liquid the next 2 frozen

Like Walt mentioned earlier individual model solutions will continue to change next few days

12Z GEFS has snow starting later Saturday into Sunday

Then you have the ICON which has a stronger LP that cuts into Northern New England from the midwest

Models: ICON — Pivotal Weather

this is still a system to monitor because if the colder air sets up further south and the storm is blocked as suggested by the Canadian especially  with a little more moisture there still is potential for a light to moderate event near the metro - also as Walt mentioned a clipper type system need to be monitored later in the weekend which could give us snow

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc is suppressed and has nothing Friday at least not until at night

Models: GDPS — Pivotal Weather

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is north. Has light rain/freezing rain Friday morning

But then the LP hits the block and is forced south with little dynamic support or moisture and then moves offshore on the GFS with little frozen here

Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

This may end up being a Friday night-Saturday morning event, followed by another late Sunday. No strong consensus yet.  

There will are model corrections but I think it unlikely this is north trending.  First one probably starts as rain coast, mix inland high terrain... how it tapers Sat?  The colder one later Sunday seems destined to be our LI snow producer.  

Plenty of time to adjust. 

any idea when the Euro's will correct south ?

Agree with Walt - plus the GFS is showing some consistency and looks reasonable but the controlling factor is how the HP is positioned - timing of it moving into a favorable position and the strength - track and timing of LP  - this is a thread the needle deal IMO

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025012706&fh=126

Euro is north still as HP in Canada not moving southeast fast enough to block storm

Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather

But then the HP pushes southeast and the storm moves offshore and this event is over by early Saturday

Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather

Also Feb looks to start with normal temps and then the middle of the first week we are back to lows in single digits and teens

Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs is weak and further south than 18z.

Because the HP in southeast Canada is moving faster to the southeast then previous runs but still steady precip makes it into LI and Central NJ

Models: GEFS — Pivotal Weather

0Z Icon is way north - the reason being is the HP in Canada is way west still the HP is the controlling factor here

Models: ICON — Pivotal Weather

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The fact that the situation is trending colder obviously is good news though if we're rooting for snow. CMC has light snow missing us to the south. Not a big storm but maybe we have a shot at seeing a little accumulating snow. 

The Euro's and the ensembles should be interesting - but we are still over 5 days away

Canadian suppresses storm - actually this is a good signal this far out IMO 

Models: GDPS — Pivotal Weather

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc and gfs way south

Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather 

Because HP moving faster to the southeast blocking storm

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Should be a great storm north of 84

this comes down to the positioning and strength of the cold HP to the north - impossible to predict this far out

next weekends event still shows up on the 12Z GFS - forget about above avg temps to start the month

The 06 GFS was a weenies dream run - any bets on how the 12Z will compare ?

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

February will start off above average as the MJO travels along in the warm phases. After that the pattern will get colder.

you must agree with the EURO AI warmer solution - the GFS shows a snow/Ice threat here next weekend - no above normal temps plus Walt seems to also believe the GFS solution - he started a winter storm thread for next weekend

No January thaw this year .............

The 0Z Euro only has 1 above normal temp day the first week or 7 days of Feb, the above normal temps stay below the Mason Dixon line for the most part as the arctic air is close by to the north - individual storm chances to be determined - too far out for those details....

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Next month will start off warm and then go back to a colder pattern. February should end up a cold month .

This is warm ?

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'll go +2 with 2 to 3" of precip

Good Luck getting the temperature 2 degrees above avg this winter in Feb.........I agree with your precip totals maybe 3- 4 inches though but temps closer to normal

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I highly doubt it. Feb will be warmer, wetter and perhaps snowier than January if we can time the precip during periods of colder temps

considering how cold January has been and avg temps in February usually rise - it won't be difficult for it to be warmer - timing of storms in cold or warm periods is impossible to predict in advance.....

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I don't think we're going to suddenly get 5-6" of precipitation like that February 

thats why I said its a BIG IF - but on the other hand extreme events seem to be common these last few years so I wouldn't close the door on the possibility....

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

That was an el nino

it doesn't matter in my opinion if 2 winters temperature and snowfall patterns are similar they can be analogs for one another IMO . Plus how long have we actually been categorizing El Nino and LaNina events since record keeping began ?