NEG NAO

7 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

gfs bombs away nj

Such pretty colors

12Z Euro clown map still will equal next to nothing NYC and points south and east

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

interesting

18 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Pathetic.

5 minutes ago, snobal said:

does  anyone  have  snowmaps from the  12z   runs  today ?

lol big south jersey snowstorm on GFS

Can't make this stuff up

4 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

The GFS continues to show less phasing and less favorable northern and southern stream spacing to lift the low further north like earlier runs. We should not be looking at snow clown maps now as they are just not good but rather what is going on aloft. Will see what the other guidance has, but the GFS may not be completely wrong with the scraper for us. Again i would not put stock in its ptype or snow amount at all. It has a cold bias 

you talking about the 13th system or the Presidents Day system ?

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next one to watch

GFS has it blocked and Canadian up to 240 hours has no storm down there not even worth speculating at this point

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

CMC is a lot weaker with the low and with the mild prior airmass, looks like a lot of white rain or just rain. We’d need a dynamic setup like the GFS to really snow and accumulate unless you’re inland and probably elevated. 

the biggest obstacle to snowfall in the metro with this system is there is no established cold air in place prior to arrival of the storm and you have to be far inland and higher elevation

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is further north but came south 

This is closer to reality

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the confluence is real and we can develop the low quickly as it goes to our south it should snow. Question would be how much is wasted on the front end due to the marginal airmass or otherwise if we struggle to get to 32. But I wouldn’t jump on any snowy solution unless other models jump on board and we hold that solution for at least 24 hours. We’ve seen time and again these lows especially southern stream trend north at the end and confluence weaken. 

GFS is total nonsense

24 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

16th/17th and beyond have more of my interest. Cold air will finally be funneling in with the 16th/17th possible event which could give us some minor accumulations, but really sets us up for something to tap into should something develop in the longer run. With our luck it'll just be wasted cold air

that makes sense since minor accumulations is the norm in NYC the last 2 years so maybe they can make it to 4 or 5 inches total for the season so far....

30 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I don’ think we’ll have clarity 4 days out on this one.  I think model runs will be all over until gametime.  We have to careful not to bite on any particular one, but we are getting three or four runs per day that are closer.  Maybe there will be something later to latch onto if this one doesn't’ work out.

like this

or like this one

Only the 0Z and 12Z runs should be taken seriously since they contain new Radiosonde Data which is a very important data input into these models 6Z and 18Z contain old stale data

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We don't know which model is correct yet 

do you actually think its going to be raining near Scranton and the Hudson Valley and snowing in NYC Metro ?

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Why is the enthusiasm so low though?

Is everyone taking a wait and see approach?

Looking to see how much multimodel support there is for this.

because when we see this not much to get enthused about because it isn't correct and other models at 0Z were wet

Even the cold is not impressive on the EURO 2/18 most of it locked up in Canada

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

GFS hit

Ukie just north

euro way north

talking nyc proper.

when the worst model is the only hit - time to start looking down the road for other possibilities which there are none as of now - Presidents Day is too far away and the EURO the day before 2/18 does not look impressive

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

 

Forget about snow early next week Euro says NO

I think the 0Z GFS should be tossed after seeing that MECS on it for next week and now this

Just now, MJO812 said:

And it will change again. Ensembles have alot of blocking. 

agreed

Just now, MJO812 said:

That's way out there and the ensembles are different . You are also talking about 384. 

I know but when you see this suppression is less likely

18Z GFS clown map 

Another Rainstorm 23rd - obviously this is an indication that maybe the pattern will not be suppressed

Presidents Day Soaker - went from suppresed 12Z to cutter 

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

THIS is a much better look

NIce - but what do you see happening here in regards to sensible weather ? Down here on the ground