NEG NAO

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No one is using those maps

Check out the SNE thread. 

 

Those maps don't tell the whole story right now - I am still going with the 2 slushy inches NYC immediate metro and more inland which I have been saying for days now BUT the metro is still sitting right on the fence and  can still fall off on either side - situation is too close for comfort in either direction IMO relying on some guidance that can be unreliable at times IMO...........especially 2 days out

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a coating to 2 inches seems like a safe bet.

Honestly I would be happy with 1 inch.

 

Only way this is more is if the storm slows down and passes off the Del Marva and is stronger - like some of the solutions from a couple days ago....along with the current NAM

Euro not much different in the metro then 12Z a couple slushy inches immediate NYC metro

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

So now at 0Z so far its the Ukie/Nam/Canadian VS. GFS/ICON/EURO  didn't look at Ensembles

I am still going with slushy couple of inches near the coast more inland - I would expect winter weather advisories having a chance to be issued late Monday for Tuesday in NYC metro

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I woke up to see the ukie. Now I'm done.

So now at 0Z so far its the Ukie/Nam/Canadian VS. GFS/ICON didn't look at Ensembles

If the Euro comes south at 0Z we still have a chance - but starting tomorrow at 12Z mesoscale models should be used.......

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Losing a lot of respect for the CMC with this one. It's either going to pull off a major coup or it's been just absolutely awful with this one. 

its holding hands right now with the NAM

Just now, MJO812 said:

Frustrating man

Every friggin storm

not surprising for several reasons - main one being no established cold air in front of the storm

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Plenty of time for this to cut through BGM

 

 

Players on the field are not lining up correctly to produce an east coast storm on this output - LP in in southeast Canada can't be there and no cold air again before the storm

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

0z will be big

Promise ?

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone is getting watches except the City

This stinks

eastern NJ and other counties in NJ don't have watches

Just now, SI Mailman said:

I’m holding off on buying tickets to the Rangers game at MetLife next Sunday because they won’t play if it’s a blizzard or if there are p-type issues

confidence is growing for a storm next weekend - start a Presidents Day Weekend Storm thread.....

Just now, MJO812 said:

Now ?

yes - definite storm with cold air in front of it this time

45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs brought back PD3

Start a Thread

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why don't we have a blocking high to the north-- wouldn't that be climo for early February?

I also saw that the AO is negative, doesn't that mean there's blocking present?

Because the pattern change will just be developing next week nothing is in place yet eventually blocking will take hold especially after next weekend storm passes

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yea and you are talking about the GFS 190 hours out. These models are still trying to figure out this upcoming event less than 72 hours out. 

yes I know

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

We don't know that at all.

well at least by Tuesday all eyes will be on next weekends coastal storm threat

looking down the road to next weekend there will be no suppression and the rain/snow line uncomfortably close

Just now, jm1220 said:

I have to think the GFS/Euro idea is right here but that CMC run is a huge forehead scratcher this close in. Maybe these south outliers mean GFS/Euro are too amped, I can hope anyway. But it can easily rampage north at 0z. 

whatever happens its obvious its another no big deal event with NYC measuring less then 2 inches snow...

1 minute ago, Northof78 said:

NAM/RGEM/CMC south/surpressed, EURO/GFS middle ground, ICON far north

CMC is not suppressed at 12Z with the rain/snow line just weak no dynamics in mild airmass

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Obviously I weigh the GFS higher than the Canadian, however there is no clear trend yet between the three major models.

All depends on EURO. If it moves north than yes concerning.

Trend is not our friend

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs more north 

Not good

just like I predicted a few minutes ago

Just now, MJO812 said:

Compromise maybe between the models 

yes - snow/rain line in Monmouth County NJ southwest towards Philly

Just now, MJO812 said:

You might be right but going with the icon is a dangerous thing. It's a horrible model that no one uses.

not going with the ICON that is way too north