NEG NAO

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

ICON is def a northerly outlier wow. Today's runs will be quite telling. 

I think the north trend will start at 12Z

12Z NAM

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

All of that would be overcome by the heavy precip like the euro is showing. Not saying it's right of course but it's on the table

so you agree with the 0Z EURO amounts ? We should have a forum snow amount contest - we used to do that back in the old days...

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

wondering why this thread is so pessimistic  despite the models. Hoping to scrape out a small plowing event like the other 3 we had

because of the warm conditions still in place upon the storms arrival and warm ground conditions and time of day this will be falling and progressive nature of this system

24 minutes ago, keno19 said:

Every person on this community is a weenie including myself. lol  The workers of the NWS don't come into forums like this.  Bernie Rayno  probably one of the best experienced meteorologists i know.  Todays weather channel meteorologists are all kids.  Seems they almost just give atmospheric science degrees now like water.  They dummy down the physics and calculus.  Its sad everything now is ensembles and looking at models from run to run.   I look at 75% of todays news weather men or women and they have backgrounds as journalism, earth science, environmental science lol.  Those degrees don't go through the  tough math and physics calculus differential equations, multi variable calculus, thermodynamics etc.  probably why forecasts are horrible today.  Don't want to be negative.  I just like the real science behind the forecast.

You just insulted a few METS on this forum............regardless I am still going with a couple slushy inches at the coast more inland where it will be colder - the coast is defined as NYC - Long Island - and the most eastern counties of NJ - the0Z EURO must have had steroids added to it......... almost a foot for NYC ???

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Most of us haven't been impressed with the setup, but who knows. Maybe we're due to get lucky with one after a lousy couple years. I'm still not getting my hopes up too high, but the models did look better tonight. We need a nice snowstorm around here, so let's hope this keeps trending better tomorrow. 

I myself don't care for heavy wet snow at my advanced age - I still think it will only end up being a couple slushy inches near the coast .........

Some will be excited about this - jackpot close to a foot around NYC

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

So storm cancel because he isn't saying anything ?

where did I say storm cancel ? I posted my prediction a few posts back " a slushy couple inches at the coast with more inland.".....

Just now, cleetussnow said:

ICON scores a coup?  Cuz thats what your saying

 

here go hump it

you have such a way with words.........

4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Bro ain’t no seasonal trend on that map and thats what we are talking about.  

we are over 3 days away - watch and see....Walt isn't saying much - enough said...

Just now, MJO812 said:

It's warm almost everywhere. We have seen storms in the past with rain to accumulating snow.

Too many people are dismissing this threat but do what you want .

It's a bombing low near the Benchmark. 

ok fair enough - time will tell...........

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Beauty

and it is wrong 

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I have to say, one thing that does perplex me are the official forecasts (NWS, TWC, and the cable weather news networks) calling for almost nothing here in NYC. Over the last 24-36 hours, almost every model run has shown 5+ for NYC. I wonder what their rationale is. Maybe the north trend will continue, or lack of cold air leading up to the storm? Seems to be a big disconnect between the model data and the humans that are making the forecast. 

because its too warm at the start and the seasonal trend so far this year

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

GFS is a beaut. 975 at the BM.

if you are inland - coast will have a slushy couple inches at most

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

It's illegal to not get NAM'd at least once a winter.

you can say that again.........

7 minutes ago, David-LI said:

NAM is not to be trusted within 24 hour range let alone 84. 

You can say that again

6 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

This is usually a red flag because this can be very thread the needle when your airmass is marginal at best. Dynamics can only do so much. Case in point a few weeks back when even the interior struggled to get any snow. 

shows you how bad this winter has been if you like cold and snow with marginal airmasses during historic prime time in February - this is more like a late March - Early April scenario

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Technically, the GFS uses a different initialization scheme from the GGEM, ECMWF, and UKMET. The latter three use the 4dVAR scheme, which is the leading one. Initialization differences aside, there could be other reasons why the different models handle things differently. If, for example, the GGEM and ECMWF are diverging, other issues could be involved. Overall, all the models are still searching for the solution and it may take another day or so for there to be good consensus.

the Canadian solution at 12Z is the weirdest one

16 minutes ago, snobal said:

i  can  guarantee  you the  CMC  will not  be  correct

I don't think any model is correct with the precip type and amounts at this point for obvious reasons total disagreement

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Well, the GFS has moved the southern extent of 6"+ snow (at 10:1 ratios - maybe not a good assumption) north about 75 miles since 0Z, such that the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC is now much closer to the "it gonna rain" line vs. 6Z and 0Z last night.  However, If folks want to know what a trend looks like, I give you the CMC, lol, as it's come hundreds of miles south over the last 36 hours.  But at the end of the day both the 12Z GFS and CMC are at least much closer to each other than they've been, so there's that.  

 

weird to say the least..........these models are not receiving the same data

24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

If the 6Z GFS is correct for Trenton to NYC along 95, for example (and we have no clue), it's showing 7-8" of 10:1 snow falling from the sky from 10 am to 4 pm with good looking DGZ snow crystal formation/growth, column temps well below 32F until very close to the surface and surface temps around 33F.  Verbatim, that snow is ;likely going to accumulate easily at over 1" per hour rates and will likely do better than the Kuchera algorithm, which treats a 1500 foot deep 33F layer aloft the same as it does a shallow 300 foot 33F layer right at the surface (it only takes max column temp into consideration, not depth=time at that max temp) and those aren't the same, as less partial melting will occur in the latter case, meaning less compaction and loss of good ratios.  If the GFS is correct.

Interestingly, the GEFS shows warmer surface temps of 35-37F during the event, but since it's showing a smoothed mean of many members, the ~6" of snow it shows falls over 9-12 hours, so at maybe 0.5" per hour, which is not nearly as dynamic and that could be why there is less cooling at the surface; at those temps during the day and at lower intensity, though, one would expect a fair amount less snow to accumulate.  One would think the Op is more likely to show dynamics better than the ensemble mean, though.  

Intensity is going to be so important for this storm if the GFS is close to right, especially during the day...

is this all your idea ?

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's good to see both the GFS and Euro show a south of benchmark track, however we will need some cold air, because a good track with not enough cold air is just cold rain or a cold rain changing to snow showers at the end.

 

need a lower pressure more dynamic system passing across the Del Marva at a less progressive pace to give the colder air a chance to infiltrate the storm circulation......

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

What is wrong with you people?  Just kidding, but normally, when I'm away from the internet (poker night) for many hours during the run-up to an event, I judge whether things went well in the model suite by how many new pages there are in the thread and there was only one new page, so I assumed the GFS and CMC were both terrible, but then I check and the GFS looks great while the CMC was just way south with most of the precip, much earlier.  So at least it's not all bad - neither model really budged much I guess from previous runs.  

this thread was not started by Walt because he is not confident about any significant snow with this "event" and I agree with him so far.....but there is nothing else to track in this boring winter so we might as well track it IMO.....

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

confluence keeps increasing

Confusion keeps increasing too - GFS is obviously on its own regarding snowfall amounts - but it makes you wonder since it has been so consistent the last couple of days.....

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs going to be slightly south 

 

Looks good for president day storm

Presidents Day storm is too far out to even speculate on IMO