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Vice-Regent

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Everything posted by Vice-Regent

  1. Vice-Regent
    God willing Josh Mogerman did not look at the 0z HMON. I think he's made it through sub 900mb landfalls but the Bahamas are very flat for the most part.
  2. Vice-Regent
    The question is how do you feel about this? I'll take the CMC over the GFS any day of the week.
  3. Vice-Regent
    That would be the weather equivalent of fake news.
  4. Vice-Regent
    No soup for you.
  5. Vice-Regent
    You will be missed.
  6. Vice-Regent
    Give it some time. Here is the high-resolution output for the PRE (Predecessor Rainfall Event) from 18z NAMNEST. Edit: JMA is a double SNE-special from TD6 and Dorian.
  7. Vice-Regent
    TD 6 is your baby. Enjoy it guys. It will probably rapidly intensify and pump the heights over Maritime Canada.
  8. Vice-Regent
    The operational run too in a strange twist. Minus the sea level pressure.
  9. Vice-Regent
    99L goes into the Shredder on the 18z GFS (You just can't make this stuff up).
  10. Vice-Regent
    18z GFS is more less what he's looking for synoptically but there's simply nothing there. I don't believe it. This needs to establish a core soon or it's going to become a significant concern for many.
  11. Vice-Regent
    Hubris can lead you into dire situations including not being prepared and driving a 8 billion population into a hothouse extinction. Nothing is set in stone in regards to this storm. People thought we would be flying around in cars at this point back in the 60s and 70s.
  12. Vice-Regent
    Remember nobody does tropical like the SNE.
  13. Vice-Regent
    New solutions on the table with 12z GFS. Significantly more negative tilt over the Great Lakes.
  14. Vice-Regent
    The GFS has a tendency to sweep these TCs away too quickly and now we are seeing new solutions on the table. Still not very favorable for getting the Bahamas disturbance into the NE but an indication of the uncertainty ahead. However I suspect if the intensity modeling was correct it may have followed the Euro.
  15. Vice-Regent
    You guys know how to do tropical. I miss the roaring 50s and 60s and I long for a 38' repeat.
  16. Vice-Regent
    Late season dirty ridging is so dangerous because it is carrying the momentum from peak insolation. At least that's how I interpret the situation. Here is some perspective.
  17. Vice-Regent
    If it's inevitable then when it happens does not matter. Nobody payed attention to Paul Beckwith's three-legged bar stool.
  18. Vice-Regent
    Hansen Et. al. The meltwater injector.
  19. Vice-Regent
    Is that 100% ice-free? 90% ice-free is regarded as largely the correct definition. Once that happens the rest is not far behind. The Arctic effectively turns into a sub-tropical ocean basin with persistent cloud cover in the winter. It is the primary mechanism for the tipping point.
  20. Vice-Regent
    Deck pics or it didn't happen.
  21. Vice-Regent
    We have the money shot. Storm tracking on the coastal plain is incredible.
  22. Vice-Regent
    Here are some pics from yesterday to keep us occupied while we wait. There was possibly a brief rain-wrapped waterspout. It is difficult to ascertain the peak intensity of this particular storm. Winds gusted to about 45mph on shore with visibility dropping to 1/8 mile. (Looking west towards Delaware 5/29/19)
  23. Vice-Regent
  24. Vice-Regent
    Our climo is turning into an Inland Gulf Coast type. Maybe Arkansas or Eastern Oklahoma where the main show shifts towards the warm season.
  25. Vice-Regent
    It's always the blob. Looking for a June 2012 derecho but it never happens.
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