Decreasing wind shear and hot gulf waters=bad combo. I expect it be at least a weak category 4 by landfall. Nothing preventing it from strengthening rapidly. Just look at what happened with Hurricane Ian last year.
Exhaust the cold source? What the heck? Is there some sort of allowance or something for how much cold weather an area can receive during Winter? That cold weather snap in December has nothing to do with what happens the rest of the season.