lilj4425

I think it’s beautiful.

WSW for Myrtle Beach, Florence and Wilmington: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 332 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059- 192100- /O.NEW.KILM.WS.A.0002.220121T0500Z-220122T1700Z/ Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender- Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick- Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion- Williamsburg-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown- Central Horry-Northern Horry- Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro, Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro, Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport, Sunset Beach, Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville, Darlington, North Hartsville, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins, Kingstree, Myrtle Beach, Socastee, North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews, Georgetown, Murrells Inlet, Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris, Green Sea, and Aynor 332 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Freezing rain will be the primary wintry precipitation occurring throughout the watch period. Widespread significant ice accumulations are possible with early estimates at 0.20 to 0.40 inches, except around one tenth of an inch along the immediate coast. * WHERE...Portions of Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina. * WHEN...From Midnight Friday through Noon Saturday. * IMPACTS...The forecasted ice accumulations will make traveling extremely hazardous if not impossible. Power outages and tree damage will likely occur with these potential ice amounts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this evolving and potentially extremely hazardous winter storm. && $$ dch

GSP: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM EST Wednesday: Precipitation now appears to evenly transition from primarily isentropically-lifted air over a developing in-situ CAD wedge in the near-term, to synoptically- driven by late Thursday. A sharpening, positively-tilted 500mb trough will cross the Ohio Valley on Friday, generating a slew of forcing, basically from the start of the forecast period, along the remnant frontal boundary east of the forecast area and strengthening a surface cold layer via evaporative cooling. As noted by the previous forecaster, none of the deterministic models depict the development of a cutoff low any longer, in favor of simply deepening the trough as it enters the forecast area Friday evening. A 250mb jet will simultaneously develop over Tennessee, which should serve to enhance coastal cyclogenesis should it align well with midlevel features. The GFS and CMC, for example, have consistently toned down the strength of the surface lows they develop as the best upper forcing sets up south and east of the midlevel baroclinic zone; the latest ECMWF, by contrast, aligns 250mb divergence, 500mb DPVA, and the location of the developing surface low quite well, such that the cyclone becomes much deeper than the other models depict. At the very least, models have improved in their timing of events - with the latest runs of all three global models indicating that activity will peak from 00Z to 06Z Saturday. Which of these solutions plays out will be crucial in determining what sensible weather is produced for the western Carolinas. A stronger low translates to better moisture flux as the low travels up the coast, and also more pronounced 850mb WAA. Consequently, the GFS and CMC both depict comparatively small QPF totals vs. the ECMWF; but because the ECMWF depicts the strongest low-level WAA Friday night, it also brings a warm nose farther inland and depicts a greater likelihood of frozen p-types compared to the basically rain-snow solutions of the GFS and CMC. All things considered, however, uncertainty still looms large in this forecast. Even a cursory look at ensemble guidance indicates considerable question over the ultimate location of the developing surface low, and the timing of dry air arriving in the Carolinas on the tail end of the system, which would impact the duration of any precipitation.

How does the NAM look? Guess I’m the only one who is awake right now. Third shift life.

Models are nowhere near in agreement. NAM gives me almost a foot while Euro is bone dry.

I guess it looked bad for everybody else. Lol.

Almost. Lol. NAM dumps almost nine inches here while the GFS is still zero. RGEM threads the middle of the two. However, the GFS was an improvement compared to earlier runs.

The NAM just caused me to open a beer.

I wonder if GSP is ripping their hair out yet. Lol.

It wasn’t Chris who posted it. One of the other mets at WYFF did. Maybe he had to approve it though first due to being chief met. Not sure.

Just a “slight” difference between the Euro and GFS:

I have no idea what’s happening anymore with this weekend’s threat. The posts on that thread are all over the place. Send hel…beer.

I wouldn’t be surprised and fully expect the Euro to come in line with the Ukie on its next model run. They usually follow in tandem with each other.

He’s viewing this thread right now.

The sun is coming out. WTF?

Everybody just stay calm and relax. I will bring you the mojo. Weather models love Bloo Q Kazoo.

And like a light switch, back to all snow.

The deform band appears to be weakening.

That qpf back out west in Alabama will be snow when it gets here thankfully. I believe it’s the deform band.

December flowers bring January snow showers?

And we’re not done yet. Chris at WYFF says we should switch back to snow at 1pm. I’m not exactly sure what GSP was looking at to cut totals so much when the RAP and HRRR were showing much higher totals along with being consistent run to run.

Sun starting to come up:

Changed over to sleet. 28 degrees. The roads are a mess and are about to get worse. Winds are getting stronger also.