Henry's Weather

2 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Ditto... was in that same exact traffic jam as you and Weathafella on 112 "Lost River Road" to get onto 93

North Woodstock NH 10:30pm... you Jerry and I'm sure others were in this:

Backed out of our parking spot in Newport 4pm

Finally exited Newport 5:30pm

Arrived in Boston 2am, (non-stop... empty bottles in car)

I don't remember hearing a single honk the entire drive.

As Powderfreak and others said, I'd do it all again in a heartbeat.

I think compounding things was that Google / Apple Maps really struggled to update anything and gave some ridiculous suggestions even with cell phone service (I had downloaded offline maps before trip).

Some media attention to this:

https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2024/04/10/eclipse-traffic-new-hampshire/

I call it “biblical traffic”. Yeah, that was one hell of a commute back. We got through 5 episodes of the S-Town podcast during the latter half of the commute, for some perspective. Some of my friends opted to perch out the window and smoke cigarettes during the crawl. Was a pretty all-American day for us, and one that I won’t forget ever.

12 hours ago, weathafella said:

We ended up driving around the car blocking exit 38 and took the alternate route anyway.   We weren’t alone either.  When 112 hit 93 we had clear sailing all the way home   We were in that cluster described above on 93 South for 3 hours and arrived home at 4AM.  Exit 39 was legit blocked.  Exit 38 seemed an ad hoc decision and we took the chance and at least got home before dawn.

I was almost certainly in the same exact traffic jam - we left Groveton NH at around 4:30 and arrived in Cambridge at 2 AM

Woah… how did we start arguing about the senate?

13 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

def felt the dew on my run 

Off topic, but what benefits do you get from running? 

48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's close ( all hating and despising aside...) re April 3rd-ish

Henry's chart above is remarkably consistent, as well ..shared with only irrelevant differences between the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble means. In all -->  a deep coupled response to that western limb -NAO you see over the D. Straight, should evolve nearby our lat/lon - that is the teleconnector incarnate.

That's just a 101 interpretation that cannot really be argued.

The problems with it are obviously A... the lateness and climate but excusing  that obviousness for moment ( we've have blizzards in early April before, anyway - ) ...the heights in the west and how they transiently balance against the heights between the GOM and off the SE U.S. coast, are preventative.

The GEFs mean for dailies is actually a very good fit on the 06z, taking a strong primary up the ST Seaway to about Watertown NY ..then, forcing a secondary E of PWM ... because it compromises the -NAO forcing a storm S, while also negotiating those heigher heights underneath/foundation of all that scaffolding down in the deep S/SE.  

It can change... a little more western ridging would help. But, I also suspect the entire 35N band around the entire hemisphere/planet on both sides of the Equator, being some 3 to 7 dm higher than they were 50 years ago ... would continue to impose resistance even if those mid latitude features became better aligned.  The flow would compress, not "yield" in that sense... and compression speeds up the flow - it's basically just that the lower latitudes are destructively interfering.   Complex... 

For now, we need the Pac --> N/A flow structure not be going into a -PNA mode, while these other inhibitors are going on, before we can be more confident in a finale bomb.

I will say though that the 2nd week of April, the seasonal 'flash' is now showing up on the guidance across the board.  It's probable any 1st week system would be the season's mortality gasp in the models.

Atlantic optimal, pacific suboptimal, especially considering CC decrease in baroclinicity. Accurate summary?

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What you are engaging is drizzle

I’d be a fool to expect otherwise, but there does exist some opportunity for an event somewhere. Obvious caveat: it is April, chances of something appreciable in SNE are sub 5%

Big neg NAO reducing, PNA pumping. There’s a shot at something for sure

30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

This Afternoon

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 27. Windy, with a southwest wind around 50 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 16. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind 55 to 60 mph decreasing to 49 to 54 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 48 to 54 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. Steady temperature around 18. Wind chill values as low as -6. Windy, with a west southwest wind 34 to 39 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 17. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a west southwest wind 37 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible

 

 

insane!

Ho lee shit

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is a dumb tweet

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon

Pulling for ya

58 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i do think that this is also sorta cyclical. the western US and northern Plains have been cashing in over the last several years. it's not like the entire US has just blowtorched every single year since 2015-16. the cold has just been focused somewhere else

Valid point, but if you had used 1950-2011 data, this would be all red.

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just adding to your philosophy ...  anyone that opposes anything in reality ( really), is not "right"   if/when they do not provide logic to support their basis - which seldom happens. That's a red flag - insufficient corroborative evidence to frame lucidity.

If/when they are providing proofs that at minimum ...withstand basic arithmetic of clad meteorological concepts and application, others would be more accepting of their position. 

Somewhere in the pessimists of this red flag ilk, there may be a semblance of persistence based reasoning - but it's a default that fails if that's the case.  We just had two 10-15" snow events:  Jan 7 ... Feb 13.  Collectively, those of fair/objective outlook correctly ferreted those events out of the various guidance and techniques therein.  I don't recall any other storms this year that failed as badly as the pessimists failed to correctly claim they would not happen. 

The score is 2-0.

...  So they are not righteous, out of box.  

It's obvious that they have some spectrum related problem relating to other's and group modes of thinking- and this unfortunatley provides them some sandbox within which they can constantly experiment with their own dysfunctionality.

Simply stop engaging with the red-flaggers.  You don't even have to set them on ignore.  Just do that anyway...

problem solved.   You'll know when you are encountering worth-while con, or pro... either way.  That's what you engage with.

I realize there are some post adolescence maturation types in here... but a lot of this garbage back and forth is coming from middle age and elder users that seem to have trouble with this. 

 

Right, it’s not that people can’t want outcomes. It’s that logical discourse allows us to find which outcomes are actually most likely. Argumentation needs to have primary salience for why someone thinks something is going to happen. Otherwise, the scientific enterprise is not happening, for better or for worse.

God, this conversation makes me want to start a blog a la @weatherwizand others. Just some sort of objective metric.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree....there is more skill involved in that. The snowfall rages, as fun as they are, is largely luck.

From an intellectual basis, sure, but calling a winter storm window and receiving a KU during that window must also be immensely gratifying. But sure, ideally you would nest the correct sensible weather prediction in an accurate assessment of the long-wave pattern and its flux

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The high of being right coupled with the joy of the experience of the snow is awesome. Right....but its frustrating when you miss.

I personally think it’s better to make predictions and see how they fare against reality than to never make predictions because of the inevitability of being wrong in some way. I think more is learned from trial and error than no trial at all. I think it’s a trait related to psychological conscientiousness, if I had to speculate

There’s hardly any satisfaction in predicting an index mean, when it doesn’t pertain to sensible weather outcomes

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

To be perfectly honest, the snowfall stuff has a lot of luck involved.....I honestly feel like my past couple of efforts have been better than some of my "hits" in terms of snowfall earlier in my "career". I think I hit just about every index for the DM period wintin .30.....but since it didn't snow, its viewed as a bust. Will need to wait for the end to know, but this year is along the same lines, though admittedly it will be much warmer than I had. However, its been much warmer than every issued outlook I have seen...even raindance. Sure, you will have people claiming to have "nailed" it pulling up a randomn quote from October, but I only count published efforts. Its difficult to forecast an extreme anomaly on a seasonal scale that I usually derived form a composite of analogs. This is why you don't normally see exceedingly low pressures on a day 10 ensemble mean.

There is so much that gets lost along the chain of large-scale synoptic facts -> small-scale sensible weather impact. I think what is keeping you making these outcome-specific forecasts is the high from predicting the specifics pretty accurately for 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2017-18. That sort of intellectual satisfaction is highly appealing.

People hate on pessimists not because they’re wrong (since a lack of significant wintry weather is always more likely than significant wintry weather), but because their bias is clear, and because it is also clear that they relish the negative response from the hopefuls.

Two facts: people who post here hope for snow. And, snow events are becoming more infrequent. Therefore, performative, inert pessimism is more accurate than naive optimism over the long run. 
 

However, since the realities I mentioned above are already implicit in this endeavor, dispositional pessimists, though they end up being right more often, are “raining on this particular parade”. To extend the analogy, you don’t have to go to a Red Sox bar with a Yankees cap on, even if the reality of the game is independent of what clothes you wear. The truth is: recreational weather discussion is motivated by hope for certain outcomes, and doomers will frequently “wear the hat” of the objective observer to rile up the subjective hopefuls, but often these people, like @jbenedet, make woeful predictions to serve the God of pessimism. The motivation becomes to frustrate the hopefuls, not to make correct forecasts.

It is possible to be a pessimist and also hold yourself to an objective standard of truth. The same is true for optimists or hopefuls. The reason why @40/70 Benchmark gets more respect on this board than someone like Omega or the Pope is because he releases outlooks and then grades himself on how accurate they were, even if it is clear that he wants a specific outcome.

17 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

fyp

14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Last night I drove by the Market Basket at The Loop in Methuen.....people had the world is ending look in their eyes...lol...

The lord giveth fresh produce and terrible iced tea, amen. Lord, may your boughs be plentiful, may your aisles be bursting, may your pimply grocers be paid no more than minimum wage. In Demoulas’ name, amen

7 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Grass is coated at the office in Waltham 

What an honor it must be to work so close to a market basket… all praise Demoulas

42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I remember it. And I was looking/hoping for it to change, cold air never made it.   But imo, this is way worse…2024, and we are under 24 hrs out, and the modeling fails so badly…it’s abysmal.  

Yeah, this one is pretty rough

Nothing will match the pain of the first March storm in 2018. I truly believed we’d flip to snow a la 1997, we got nothing. That expectation was particularly stupid on my part, not sure if any of you folks remember that storm

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t blame Ray…he spends hrs and hrs on these long range outlooks…he needs to reconsider the endeavor next year imo. Especially when you have a young family and all.  Just take what comes…nothing more one can do anyway.  Forget all the research and analogs, way too much time for very little return.  Atmosphere just sits back and laughs at us. 
 

And to be honest…this is worse than Feb of 89. I remember that still like it was yesterday. That sucked bad.  But being we are 35 yrs later, and all the supposed improvements, this is way worse.  I think we should go back to not starting threads to quite close in.  Everything up until(well 18 hrs now it seems), is just BS anyway.  

Part of me is happy that even with our advances in tech, nothing is guaranteed. Not sure we’d like perfect forecasts, it,d put us out of a fun hobby

This is the worst bust since March 22 2018, but maybe even that one was lower expectation

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This site is so obnoxious with certain images...it won't let me post h7.

Do you know you can delete past images to free up upload space?

We can average the ICON and the CMC to get the prevailing model consensus.