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Henry's Weather

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    February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

    in New England

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

    Maybe.  And “worse” is obviously subjective, so maybe not.  
    From my experience, the further north you went the worse it got.  Not a lot of difference between here and Holden I guess.   

    Could have been from June 2011?

    As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

    Haven’t looked at a model all day, been moving my mother in-laws house…. Still feeling good about 3-5” here? Always thought storm was moving too fast and not developed enough for bigger numbers. 

    Did Euro score a coup and things shift southeast? What’s the story? Asking for a guy who doesn’t want to scroll back 30 pages or look for himself.

    Consensus 4-8”+ albany to the coast, euro caved to gfs, Nashua (where I think you are?) is in a prime location. 
     

    Contentious about NW extend of the goods and the r/s line (NW of Plymouth or not, and duration)

    • Like 2

    Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

    in New England

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    gotta go back to elementary physics on that one.  

    everything in nature happens because A ≠ B    ... if A = B  nothing happens.

    when A ≠ B then either A --> B      or       B --> A   ...    the strength in which "-->"  occurs, for the purpose of this context, is dictated by the thermodynamic gradient - or the steepness between heat source and sink

    the gradient between the polar regions, and the equator. 

     ... the polar regions are warming faster than the equatorial region... but, they have a long way to go - below a threshold ( of sorts) still.  because they have such a deep hole in the total global thermal budget to begin with, the gradient - for now - is steepened by the regions outside of the polar regions.   there's compendium of examples of how this manifests in global pattern and wind behaviors -

    And even though the poles heat faster, as temp increases, the same delta T is a larger delta kinetic energy increase? Which means that delta Kinetic energy is higher, which means that the motive force for redistributing kinetic energy is higher -> faster circulation?

    Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

    in New England

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    what is meant by awful Pacific, tho -

    we just agreed that apparent compression/shearing/velocity soaking is taking place in both neg and pos pnas and regardless of epos.  

    look, it's not the pacific.

    its the planetary medium.  that's just it - sorry

    Mechanistically, how would CC cause a faster flow? Simply more kinetic energy available due to higher temps globally?

    Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

    in New England

    Posted

    1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Who the hell is that guy and why would he issue a blizzard watch almost a week out?

    I’m not necessarily opposed to issuing alerts about high-potential systems far in advance. I’m sure it wasn’t intended to be similar in kind to the NWS’s old blizzard watches. 
     

    No clue if this guy sucks or whatever, but I feel like the idea is fine

    Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

    in New England

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Honestly, the only reason I didn't start the thread at the precise hour that he did is because it slipped my mind...if you look, I made my "its coming" blog post on Monday night right as he was starting the thread. What can I say....it didn't work out. 9/10 when you get a unanimous trend like that among guidance at day 4, it doesn't reverse, but in this case it did. The added bonus was the N steam also shit the bed, so we don't have to deal with the near miss, 3 " on the s shore BS.

    The solution to these terrible disappointments is to literally mot care about OP runs outside of 100 hrs. If those depictions had no emotional resonance, we wouldn’t be experiencing this disappointment, bc the ens means were always potentially promising but not honking “storm!!”

    Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

    in New England

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

    Getting back to the euro vis a vis January 2015.   I remember guidance kind of hinted at a DC storm about 5-6 days out and scooter through his famous tantrum.   I was on a work  trip in Pittsburgh and was enjoying the 1” they had on the ground thinking it was nice to see snow again.  This was a Friday and I returned home that night with a progged slop storm coming Saturday.  I wake up Saturday and checked the overnight euro and see the hook and a snow pummeling coming in 60 hours-with no other guidance on board.  The slop system over performed and 2 days later we were off to the races.  How long must we pay for that?

    That slop system was pretty good in its own right iirc, nice 4-8”

    Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    6Nua8FK.png
     

    From that, to this.

    wY42SNd.png


    As our sinking ship fades into the night, I’m not too proud to make one last plea. 

     

    Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

    I’m begging of you

    Please don’t take my snow

     

    Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

    Please don’t take it 

    Just because you can

     

    We fell in love with your night run

    Of feet and feet for everyone

    With crashing temps

    Dildos for none

     

    Now Scooter’s out

    And Ray is done

    You’ve turned our snow 

    To clouds and sun

    You’ve porked us all

    Atlanta’s won

    Euro

     

    I dream about it in my sleep

    Awake, I read the thread and weep

    I’m praying

    For a little snow

    Euro

     

    The long range ghosts appear again 

    My back is broken as a man

    Please let me go

    I’ve taken all I can

     

    Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

    I’m begging of you

    Please don’t take my snow

     

    Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

    Please have mercy

    Halt your fatal blow


    New England winters are a loss

    Regression’s here 

    The rats are boss

    And I cannot endure this hell

    Euro


    I had to plead my case to you

    My winter hopes depend on you

    And whatever you decide to do

    Euro

     

    Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

    I’m begging of you 

    Please don’t take my snow

     

    Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

    Please don’t take it 

    Even though you can

     

    Euro 

     

    Eurooooo…

    This must be the Yonce version

    • Haha 1
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