CheeselandSkies

I don't even know what to think at this point. I had higher hopes for 2018 because we were supposedly in a La Nina going into the spring, but it didn't help. Was it just the ill-timed SSW event that killed the spring, or was there more to it than that? The winteristas say there is a SSW event ongoing right now which is going to save the season for them, but my only concern is that it's not happening at a point where the effects will still be felt into, you know, May? Number of tornadoes: 1000 No high risk. Going to continue the streak that goes back to after June 2014 (since none of the four in 2017 should really ever have been issued, except maybe the one in January had it not covered so much of peninsular FL where VEERED WINDS were an obvious issue, although they honestly would have been just fine sticking with the MDT risk of the initial outlook) and I don't see anything that is going to flip the table in favor of more higher end events.

Enhanced (30% risk) for ARKLATEX into lower MS valley Friday. Slight risk for Dixie Saturday. Not an ideal setup but wouldn't sleep on an isolated impact event or two. This is the time of year when tornadoes in the South can strike any time of day, often out of a previously innocuous-looking QLCS, and people aren't as aware as they might be in the spring.

Goodness, look at that trough digging into the western US on the 12Z NAM with unfettered southerly flow off the western and central Gulf. Where was that in May?

Why hello there.

I see where he's coming from, in that it seems like a waste of favorable moisture, low-level and deep layer shear if it's not going to produce long-lived, photogenic tornadoes especially given the dearth of setups that have featured all three conditions overlapping at all this year and most of last. I mean, come on, it's late June and not enough cap to prevent a convective mess?

That would be something if the sequence of the year (in terms of duration/coverage/intensity) occurred after the summer solstice, but it would be in keeping with #2018ing. The signs are there, but signs don't mean much when they usually vanish within 36 hours.

Either no one wants to jinx it or no one cares since it's after the summer solstice and everyone's chasecation is over. GFS has actually been pretty consistent with late next week wanting to get frisky over the Midwest.

Had my eye on SD for possibly Friday for a few days now, but much like a similar situation for last Friday it looks to be trending down with time. Low-level shear looks decent at least over a small area but upper-level winds (above 500mb) are quite weak. Could have storms drowning their own updrafts with precip.

I don't MIND chasing the northern Plains (in fact I rather prefer it due to relative proximity to me and less likelihood of crowds), but I'd rather it be south of the international border.

Well, they threw in a little 10% for NE CO at 1630 so maybe today will grow a pair after all. Figures, just in time for my vacation to end action picks up a little bit, although yesterday and today's threats by themselves probably wouldn't be enough to draw me that far out. I think I'm done taking a week off each spring for "chasing." This is the fourth straight year I've booked one based on late May/early June climo and each year it has coincided with the deadest period possible. I'll just try to take off for the significant troughs as they show up on the models and if they go to crap, then just do something else with the PTO day.

He's yelling "Spin, damn you!"

So now the question becomes, how did the weeklies get bamboozled so badly back when things were supposedly looking up for the 3rd and 4th weeks of May? Are they biased towards climo or what?

Yeah. Honestly, after hitting rock bottom over the weekend, things are looking up a bit for the coming weekend into the following week. Should be at least a few opportunities. Saturday in particular has my eye now that the GFS actually forms a surface low.

Mulling over some NAM forecast soundings for Friday over KS/NE (obviously still at the very end of its range so take it for what it's worth). The biggest weakness I see is of course the modest deep layer shear. However low level directional shear and mid-level lapse rates look quite good. Still not sure if I'll bite on it, but based off that Euro run Friday-Saturday would be the only play of my vacation window. If only that 500mb shortwave with the small pockets of 45-50kt southwesterlies could be a little faster (on the GFS, too). It seems to want to lag the warm sector until the cap is filling in after dark, however that could imply a small window of time shortly after 0z when everything lines up. As we saw on the 1st, sometimes that's all it takes.

Sad when New York is getting better action than the Plains/Midwest in mid-May.

CFS still really wants to bring a small area of 50kt SW flow to parts of KS/NE next Saturday. GFS also has it but has been very consistent with an ugly crashing cold front surface pattern and no SLP really able to wrap up. So we go from February in April, to July in early-mid May, back to April in mid-late May? Seems legit.

Meanwhile south of Wichita... Probably won't be anything long-lasting or too photogenic, but the storm's reflectivity presentation looks lovely.

I hear that. Of course, I said the same thing for the days of Dodge City and Chapman that one week in 2016. I was laser-focused on that Thursday and...yeah. The problem for me is that those days, by themselves, looking as they did even 2 days out wouldn't be enough to get me from WI to western KS, even if I had been off that week.

They had that in there yesterday, too (same forecaster IIRC). GFS continues to look at least moderately interesting over NC/NE KS for next Saturday, so I'm surprised they didn't at least throw in a "predictability too low" for that. Yeah there is some 700-500mb VBV in here but decent turning below 700mb and very strong instability.

Next weekend actually doesn't look entirely awful on the GFS, this morning's 12Z run had a 2-day play from KS to the Midwest on Saturday-Sunday. The surface pattern doesn't look stellar but at least there's 500mb flow above 30kt overlapping some instability.

Ah, but therein lies the problem for those of us who just don't have the luxury to chase all of them.

Even reading between the lines of Kerr's last few Day 4-8 convective outlooks, you can detect some degree of "WTF atmosphere, it's May?!" Friday: Yesterday: Today:

GFS at around hour 156 doesn't look too terrible, if that shortwave in KS were a tad faster or the one in Iowa a tad slower. Still, it is frustrating not to see a broad belt of AOA 40kt SW flow overspreading that massive reservoir of instability.

That...is delightful.

Looks like my dart at the calender (May 18-27) might work out. Hard not to sweat each run of the CFS and GFS, even though at 9+ days out most of my vacation is still in model fantasyland. At least the trends are encouraging.