George BM

Just past 10:42pm. The sun has gotten as far north from the equator as it will ever be this year over the western Pacific Ocean!

@CAPE Your worry about your lawn being incinerated will soon be on borrowed time as the solar noon sun angle eventually lowers behind your trees.

Hot summer weather lovers rejoice for your time of celebration has come!

Cold weather lovers you all rejoice as well for the days will get shorter with the sun angle lowering from here on out until the winter solstice, ensuring that the heat and humid will also eventually abate.

5.21" for the month o June so far following 7.62" for May.

12.83" since May 1st.

Was in the eastern part of that destructive tagged severe thunderstorm warning earlier (Herndon, VA).

As lots of others also experience, it was briefly fairly intense (by MBY standards) for a couple of minutes with sheets of rain and 40-50 mph wind gusts. The rain and wind arrived simultaneously. I also saw a small jet abort a landing on runway 19L and scale the leading edge of the rain curtain.

Certainly no 80 mph wind gusts here. But it was my best storm in years.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

RIP 

Yes I know it's probably just wonky in that location... hopefully...

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Mentions isolated significant gusts to 75mph

I'm guessing 70/30 wind probs based on the watch wording?

415   
ACUS11 KWNS 191722  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 191722   
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-191915-  
  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1222 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 191722Z - 191915Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE  
BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD,  
THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS LIKELY.  
  
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION GRADUALLY DEEPENING  
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THIS  
ACTIVITY, THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON. 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIKELY MEAN BROKEN  
LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS A FEW SUPERCELLS.  
  
THE PRIMARY HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS,  
PARTICULARLY WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP. ISOLATED LARGE  
HAIL IS POSSIBLE, BUT WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS AND POOR MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES (SAMPLE BY MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION) SHOULD  
LIMIT THAT THREAT. MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO THE 850 MB WINDS WILL  
PROMOTE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR THE THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO  
OR TWO.  
  
..WENDT/HART.. 06/19/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
  
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...  
  
LAT...LON   37618051 38657993 40287794 40817698 40697497 40177473  
            37627670 36947781 36707996 37018057 37618051   
  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  

41 minutes ago, yoda said:

Kind of surprised we are almost at 1pm and no MCD.  There has been initiation out in WV for a bit

Finally MCD'd.

Oh okay...

IAD w/ a tropical hourly ob of 84F w/a 78F dewpoint.

High Pwats + decent CAPE = torrential lightning w/ those currently warned storms.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch out until 7pm from roughly US-15 east.

Unusually warm mist here.

75/75 currently at IAD.

Some windows are fogged up.

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

The volcano eruption will save us

That's right Aldie man. Use your power to get us another major volcanic eruption... preferably at least a high-end VEI 6/ low-end VEI 7.  

I'll be checking the news throughout the evening.

Midnight thunderstorm dumped over 1.5" of rain here. 

2.05" for the weekend.

3.65" for June so far.

Really noticed the hazy smoke on the drive from Burtonsville, MD back to Herndon, VA this evening.

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

FWIW, this is what is looked like just to the N of College Park at 5pm today.  It tried for a brief time.  Define supercell with a long inflow band to the E.

I had to take this pix through a window.  
 

Yeah. That cell definitely has a little bit of a supercell appearance on radar.

On 6/11/2025 at 1:09 PM, Kmlwx said:

June 2008 is still showing on the 12z updates to the CIPS guidance. Interestingly, if you sort solely by 500mb rather than all fields, it is the top analog with a score of 0.918. While I doubt we realize that high end of a threat - it's definitely got my attention. Worth noting that some of the neighboring domains on there also have June 4-5 2008 showing up as well.

Obvious questions remain in regards to day-of factors like instability - but my interest level has risen a bit. 

The end of the 18z HRRR for Saturday afternoon DOES look a little interesting (yes fantasy range HRRR, I know... plus, verbatim, weak MLLRs and a saturated atmosphere in general limiting DCAPE).

ETA: Others CAMs show hints of us being backdoored by a cool front by late Saturday.

21 minutes ago, 87storms said:

The 270 split precip magnet is at it again.

Yeap. Line just developed from just north of the Capitol Beltway WSW into The Plains, VA along I-66.

17/8/4

ACE: 140

30 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Stephens City is on a heater!  Great storm.  .80"

It's funny. Since the summer of 2023 I've had three months where I measured 7 or more inches of rain in a month (September 2023, August 2024 and May 2025)…. You of all posters beat my monthly rainfall totals for every one of those 3 months! 

DCA: 100F

IAD: 99F

BWI: 101F

RIC: 101F

On 6/4/2024 at 2:44 PM, George BM said:

Fun times 16 years ago this moment.

Let's do this again soon.

17 years ago.

I didn't see this posted but the recent cool period had some cool stats (no pun intended).

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Now this is the weather I need.

Lol. I'm out of the summer touch at the moment. 84/62 is kicking my butt for some reason... probably due to the extended cool period. I'm screwed aren't I. 

Third morning in a row that IAD gets down into the 40s.

47F for the low this AM.