George BM

In my personal experience, and emphasis on MY personal experience , yesterday had some loose similarities to May 26, 2021 (last year) and May 14, 2018.

Similar to May 26, 2021 in the sense that there were two rounds of storms round one being more isolated during the mid/late afternoon and round two pushing in from an additional line of storms from the west that rolled through more areas during the evening.

Similar to May 14, 2018 in the sense that the first round of storms yesterday (yes I know that May 14, 2018 had only round of storms) made for a small temp/dewpt depression resulting in a low and dark photogenic shelf cloud through much of northern VA (like on 5/14/2018).

Update: Make that 51kts (59mph) for IAD.

19 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Should be warning that line

Yeap. That actually appears to be what motivated the warning.

IAD just gusted to 50kts (58mph).

1 minute ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Just realized today is the 11th anniversary of the Joplin EF5. I think that was a Sunday too.

Yeap. Dates and days of 2022 match 2011.

...

Watching the line along the Blue Ridge right now.

 Mesoscale Discussion 0869
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of northern/central VA into the eastern WV
   Panhandle...MD...PA...NY...NJ...DC...and a small part of New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 221620Z - 221845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and hail should increase as
   thunderstorms develop by early this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly clear skies ahead of a front will
   allow the airmass to quickly destabilize into early this afternoon
   across parts of VA/MD/PA/NY and vicinity. A rather moist low-level
   airmass is in place across this region, with generally 60s to low
   70s surface dewpoints. Fairly cool mid-level temperatures are also
   present, which coupled with continued diurnal heating will likely
   support MLCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Locally
   greater instability is possible across PA, MD, and VA where better
   low-level moisture is present. The stronger mid-level flow
   associated with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern
   Canada should remain displaced mostly to the west of the surface
   warm sector. Still, around 25-35 kt of southwesterly winds at 500 mb
   (weaker with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic) should foster
   similar values of effective bulk shear and some updraft
   organization. Mainly multicell clusters are expected to develop
   early this afternoon, initially over the higher terrain of
   VA/MD/PA/NY. As this activity strengthens and spreads eastward, it
   should be capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps isolated hail. Most guidance suggests that initial
   thunderstorm development will occur by 17-18Z (1-2 PM EDT). A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued around that time frame to
   address the increasing threat through the rest of the afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/22/2022

IAD at 92/68 as of 2:32pm.

12 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

88/72

Ditto at IAD currently.

3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Folks - would some of you, if you have the time, be able to come to my Ted talk? I've been doing some research and my topic is going to involve a discussion regarding how July will likely be hotter than June.

Sure thing, friend! When it is? Where is it? Or are you holding it on Zoom?

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

43. But at this time of year by the time you head out the sun is pretty warm.

Oh wait I got you.

It got down to 43F this morning at your location but w/ the 6am or earlier sunrises the sun is high and radiant by the time most people head out.

Thought you meant it was 43F where you were right now and assumed that you had traveled somewhere.

...

Also, why did I write all of this out?... For no reason at all. Happy Wednesday! 

70/49 at IAD currently.

19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Large Day 3 Slight Risk from SPC for our region. Also runs south and way north into the northeast.

... And shear actually looks quite decent (EBWD >= 40kts). Could certainly be some decent storms in spots if we manage > 1000J/kg mlcape to go along with the shear. The later the front moves through the better.

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Thunder!

Snow!

...well a few miles up anyways.

Ummm... 

SEL8

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 208
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   325 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northwest Iowa
     Southwest Minnesota
     Northeast Nebraska
     Southeast South Dakota

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105
       mph expected
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible
     A couple tornadoes possible

   
   ...Guyer

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You rang?

Your favorite time of year approaches and a certain model is drunk of its rear end south of the US. 

Paging @WxWatcher007

3 minutes ago, RDM said:

That was it.   Just far enough away the rain and low cloud deck obscured the flash.  The "bang" was pretty intense.  What app are you using?  I check this one and it didn't show any lightening strike IVO our area at that time.  http://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en    

 

 

I use https://weather.us/lightning

Good for getting lightning data over the past 24 hours.

1 hour ago, Mrs.J said:

Even in that deluge last night the oldest Miss J had her senior prom. The rain did let up when I dropped her and her friends off. And we used our vestibule for photos in stead of any full outside shots. It worked well as she is non conventional anyways and one not to do what everyone else does. She had a wonderful time. 

1 hour ago, toolsheds said:

Happy that she had a great time.  My daughter has hers this evening, then I have 6 girls sleeping over.  We will see how that goes.

And what neither of you mentioned but both thought about after these posts is something along the lines of: "Where has the time gone? Our daughters were babies just learning to walk seemingly the other day! It would be great if time could slow down just a wee bit!" 

@Mrs.J Hope your daughter had a great time!

@toolsheds Hope your daughter has a great time!

7 hours ago, RDM said:

Had an extremely loud crack of thunder IVO our house NW of Vienna about 5 mins ago.  Much louder than a normal "crack" of thunder associated with a nearby lightening strike.  Wonder if there's a temp inversion aloft with the inbound cell that amplified the sound?  The stranger thing was we didn't detect any flash.  Wasn't a transformer breaker popping - had a long echo to it.  Really odd.  

I gots you fam! 

You heard this.

Note: Times are in CDT so this would be at 12:10am EDT.

@wxdude64

2 hours ago, mdhokie said:

Can one of the smart weather people explain why the low that ruins our weekend sits off the coast and appears to reverse and bring even more rain/clouds for the rest of next week?

1 hour ago, WeatherShak said:

Looks like high pressure parks off the coast for a few days- leaving the low no escape.

Also, a much stronger than normal ridge will develop behind the weekend low over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and northeastward into southeastern Canada resulting in a NE flow over us going around the ridge than could be strong enough to retrograde the low back to the southwest. 

Side-note: While it's still early and SSTs are generally in the low 20sC off of the SE coast, save for the Gulf Stream with ~25C SSTs, I'd watch for signs of the low acquiring sub-tropical characteristics should the pattern play out as advertised.

Forecast Discussion

Thursday, August 11, 2022, 12:04PM EDT

An arc of heavy rain and embedded tornadic supercells associated with the warm front continues to lift northwards across northern MD. Lots of areas picked up a quick 2 to 4, even locally 5 inches of rain as it this wave of rain pushed through the region. There’s also already been a number of confirmed tornadoes with this activity. However, this is only an appetizer to what will transpire during the afternoon.

The surface low associated with the remnants of Earl is currently located near Roanoke, VA w/ a min SLP of 994mb. The arc of heavy rain and embedded tornadic supercells associated with the warm front continues to lift northwards across northern MD as the mid-level dry slot moves over the region. This dry slot is allowing for more breaks in the clouds and as a result temperatures will continue to rise into the mid to perhaps even upper 80s in spots through the afternoon. With the very high moisture content of the low-levels of the atmosphere (dewpts 77-80+F and PW near 2.25”) coupled w/ the drier and slightly cooler mid-level airmass moving in overhead this will result in MLCAPE of up to around 2500J/kg. As the surface low interacts with the strong SWT approaching from the west in will deepen through the afternoon as it moves NE through the region resulting in strong to extreme low-level shear in ahead of it across the region (effective SRH 450-650 m2/s2). The very high low-level moisture content combined with the added sunshine will result in high 0-3km CAPE of 175-225+J/kg. All of these conditions, along with 50-60kt effective bulk shear, will combine to make for an environment that is very conducive for supercells producing long-track and significant tornadoes, particularly between 1pm and 6pm. Significantly severe wind gusts are possible as well given the 70+kt 800-600mb flow. Despite the fairly warm mid-level temps (500mb temps of around -4C) ample shear aloft will allow for large hail to be a threat with these supercells.

Even outside of any storms the synoptic winds will be quite impressive w/ 35-45mph gusts. While this is just below Wind Advisory criteria, given how wet it’s been in recent days a few weak trees may still come down.

By late this evening the winds switch to westerly as the low-pressure center moves northeast allowing drier and cooler air to filter in… allowing for better conditions for cleanup to get underway.

"Forecaster": George BM

Wet to start.

34F for the low at IAD.

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Afternoon AFD suggests next Tuesday may be our first chance at severe again

Yeah. I've been keeping one eye on early next week myself. We're also getting into better CAPE season.

2022 Max Temps:

DCA: 88F

IAD: 89F

BWI: 87F

RIC: 90F