etudiant

Honestly, you guys should take a victory lap, you did good.

That said, I think we did not look beyond landfall enough. This storm killed way more people up here than down there, because people here got surprised.

I know the mets were screaming, but the leaders were not listening, they could not tell the difference.

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

and the 18z NAM

 

Seems the bulk of the system will bypass the metro area to the north.

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I'll take the under.  Central Park doesn't count.  

Does too, us Manhattanites build our world around it.

2 minutes ago, AChilders said:

They have a $50B flood wall. New Orleans will not flood. A few roofs may get ripped off. But no surge. And we all know that is what causes loss of life. I apologize if this should be in banter thread. 

A $50B flood wall built in New Orleans is a $5B project elsewhere. The graft is impressive, superbly organized and pervasive throughout.

I'd have very little confidence that anything has really changed since Katrina, so I hope we will not see.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Insane rain amounts here in NYC and inland areas.

Think that reflects the poor track forecast for this storm, which has  just kept chugging along rather than make the sharp right turn to the east that the models all agreed on.

I've no idea what that was based on and the models did correctly call for the shift from mostly west to mostly north earlier, but in this instance, they were badly caught out. None forecast Henri would meander around CT and the Hudson Valley. Frankly not a great advertisement for our meteorological forecasting skills.

Cab someone more expert in meteorology help us understand this egregious modeling failure to predict the record precipitation generated by this storm?

It seems to me that the focus on the exact landfall and the peak intensity caused everyone to lose sight of the real issue, but honestly the models did not handle the moisture element well.

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Complete model failure with the rainfall half of them don’t even have nyc getting this rain today let alone what happened last night 

The rain band that impacted NYC and NJ last night sort of reached way out from the storm.

It seemed unusual, but it is still surprising that the models did not recognize the precipitation potential. Wonder what lessons will be learned from this.  

6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Ahh, thanx for asking  I spent an hour or so staking and tying the tomato plants up a little better because a bunch of them had flopped over. I should know if the kinks in the stems and stalks affect things but as of now they look pretty good. I did manage to pull a half dozen nice ones today so that's good. The peppers are mostly ok but one shed all of it's blooms and the small peppers that had already set  I think the melons are in love with all the water and the warmth, the bees are totally enjoying it! Strawberries are happy (and tasty) and the raspberries set another whole round of berries  

Looks like I hit 2", highest total in a few months. 

Amazed the raccoons have not found your garden yet.

They were on the case in short order when I was gardening in CT. Early ripeness evaluators for corn, berries and tomatoes. Not so much for asparagus.

Surprising errors for a system in our back yard.

Helps understand the Ukie failure to initialize Henry correctly.

7 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Flooding - check

Tornado warned - check

1.5" so far, gutters overflowed, street was a river that completely overwhelmed the storm drains and ran over into the downhill side yards. I'm afraid to look at the garden...

So how did the garden fare? We're all now invested in its health.

On 8/17/2021 at 11:17 PM, LibertyBell said:

looks like we'll have a new supersonic jet next year to replace the Concorde, but this time it will use 100% sustainable fuel.  I'll have to read up more on it to see how it works.

 

These are projects fueled by supersonic cash courtesy of the Fed.

There is zero real world utility for these fantasies, the time saved flying is used up by the airport vaccine checkin.

Too much money chasing too few ideas.

Just astounding flooding from what had been seen as a second grade storm. Stay safe!

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Very nice shot of a Carolina Wren family.

They are astonishingly loud for such a small bird.

2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

That just means Brazilian coffee will be almost as expensive as the Hawaiian shit my wife orders. 

Just switch to the African Robusta coffees, they are more potent as well as cheaper.

The Hawaiian Konas are sinfully expensive, but if you can afford the Peaberry, go for it, you only live once.

21 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said:

If we see several degrees C of temperature rise then civilization would collapse with the eventual extinction of any remnant populations on a planet to hot to adapt to.

Why do you think that is the case?

India is much hotter than the expected median global temperature after the most extreme Global Warming, yet seems civilized to me.

I've no argument that things will not get very messy, but find the 'we'll all collapse' scenario deeply implausible.

6 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:

Yeap headed for extinction on a soon to be uninhabitable planet.

Think that is over the top, extinction is not in the cards even with the outlier scenarios.

Huge losses and major disruptions though are pretty much baked in the cake.

We could help keep the damage to a minimum, but would need to convince China and India that climate change has greater risks than dire poverty.

Thus far, that has been a ' no sale'.

Ideally, there would to be an alternative, ideally a cheap and reliable nuclear power design, fusion, fission or whatever. so no greenhouse emissions and the capacity to power an electric surface transportation system. Nothing has materialized as yet though.

1 hour ago, jburns said:

We won’t do shit about climate change. Oh, the government might try to implement some changes but I have zero faith that a population that can not even agree to wear a mask during a pandemic will make major changes in their way of life to save the planet.

The trade press is reporting surging Asian coal shipments and notes parenthetically that China is building more coal power plants than currently exist in the rest of the world outside of the US and India.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/asia-coal-demand-surge-in-stark-contrast-with-u-n-climate-warning/

I guess they are skeptical about the seriousness of climate change.

7 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Am I the only one that doesn't understand 99% of AmpedVort's posts?

I don't either, but as that is true for many other well regarded posters, it surely reflects my ignorance.

Frankly, this stuff just is not easy, so kudos to those who catch a glimmer!

14 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

fun fact, if you find a mantis, it's very likely to be one of two invasives, most probably the Chinese mantis Tenodera sinensis but also perhaps the European mantis Mantis religiosa.  seems from what i've read that the native Carolina mantis Stagmomantis carolina is a bronze medalist in its own backyard.

cats are the ultimate invasives though.  keep your cats inside please.

Nobody keeps bobcats any more apparently, even though they are efficient and non discriminatory predators that eat cats and rats both as available.

Agree on the mantis part, our home grown variant seems to be doing about as well as the native humans did, not so good.

Have to wonder whether there is some genetic difference that makes the locals more vulnerable.

5 hours ago, bdgwx said:

If 8/6 ends up being the minimum that would be epic indeed.

Have to say that extent never seemed like a useful measure to me, but perhaps specialists could clarify that aspect.

Area is where it is at imho, while also recognizing that PIOMAS is really the ground truth.

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's 8 pages and includes a bunch of graphs and maps, so it's plenty.

Is there access outside of the paywall? I could not find it.

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If there's going to be a paste, might as well paste from the summary of the paper itself

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain. Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced. Significant early-warning signals are found in eight independent AMOC indices, based on observational sea-surface temperature and salinity data from across the Atlantic Ocean basin. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.

I did just that, quoting the last sentence of the summary, which you've helpfully added in full.

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

wrong. the brown marmorated stink bug is from asia

Agree that that is a new one to join the throng, apparently first found in PA around the turn of the century, but spreading since across most of the US.

We do have plenty of native stink bugs to keep it company though.

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

you didn't read it

Just the non paywalled section.   

The punch line:  These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.

Sounds like a plausible hobgoblin to me.

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Stink bugs too I think?  I had never seen one before a few years ago and now I even see these alien looking creatures in my house, let alone outside.  Is this another one of those cheap imports?

 

Nope, 100% American. Maybe climate change has expanded their range a bit.

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i guess it's easier to cut and paste mark twain instead of read the paper

I actually did read the paper and was tempted but refrained from quoting HL Menken:  The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

I believe it to be quite apposite in this case, grant seeking researchers are no different from politicians, they make their case on the 'if it bleeds, it leads' principle.