etudiant

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

To be honest I've been talking to a lot of people who wish climate change would accelerate lol. They don't want the crap weather we are having right now, they want 60s-70s and sunny.  The bad thing is this kind of weather we're having actually makes the deniers think they are right, they've been saying, if climate change was a serious problem we wouldn't be getting this kind of weather anymore.

Paradoxically, I think climate change acceleration is the only way to get more people angry and involved.  It has to become a serious life and death situation where it's warm enough to cause disruption to their life. And a large percentage of people actually don't want abnormally cold weather anymore, that's another issue.

 

 

Given the lags involved, I can't see much benefit from 'people getting angry and involved' once it has become warm enough to cause disruption.

Afaik, the satellite data shows a persistent energy imbalance, Earth gets more coming in than it radiates away. How long that has been the case is unknown, the data only goes back a few years.

I've no idea how to fix that and the proposals floating about, such as repolluting the atmosphere with more sulfur dioxide, just seem amateurish.

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

By the way, when you do a deep dive into the greatest NYC area winter events, you learn that the top one isn't March 1888 or December 1947 or even January 2016 (which is my personal favorite snowstorm of all time), the real number one is February 1920.  Based on your charts and the total LE over three days of over 4.5" LE and 1"+ LE every day for three days (the only winter storm to do this), this has to be the greatest winter storm this area has seen in recorded history.  It's too bad it was a mixed event so the snowfall total was *only* 17 inches (or is that 17 inches of sleet, heh).  What was the highest temperature during this storm and what percentage of it was snow?

 

LE is an unambiguous measure of precipitation, unlike snowfall depths. Is there any good rationale for using the latter as a standard of comparison?

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes I'm worried about it right now as we're getting more frequent rains.  I had my entire roof and drainage system replaced a few years ago, but it's still happening.

 

Your gutters need realignement so they drain properly. That is not a big job, but should have been done when your roof was replaced.

You just have to make sure they slope down towards the downspouts, just a little is all it takes.

Usually the gutters have supports that screw into the fascia below the roof. Bending those appropriately will normally be enough to fix the problem.

Note that the problem often arises when snow and ice accumulate in the gutters. That adds considerable weight, which distorts the initial installation.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

These are prehistoric creatures, one of the first to walk on land (after amphibians.)  In ancient times these were even larger-- what a horror show.  I think animals were much larger back then because the oxygen content of the air was higher.

What do they eat?

Anything that they can catch, mostly other insects and spiders, but also worms and small lizards. Their poison helps dissolve the tissues of their prey, so it is easy to ingest.

I'd guess the big ones will take small mammals as well, although shrews predate them.

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I'm glad I haven't seen one of those!

They are harmless, plus they don't make noise.

Still, you might worry if you have some rare tapestries stored in a damp basement, these guys will eat anything.

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

those tropical ones, OMG

I hope those don't come inside, I've seen them on my trips, but they were always outside and look like snakes.

I only see maybe one every 2-3 years but when I do, it's usually at night and don't get much sleep that night.

 

Afaik, they are not attracted to household life, too little food.

But they do like trees, often find good sized meals there. I know people who had scolopenders drop on them, very unpleasant experience even disregarding the pain. 

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

omg this is horrible.  I noticed these are solitary bees or they exist in pairs.  They first come to drink water from my gutters and somehow make it inside.  They're not attracted to any particular flower that I need to get rid of, are they?

 

They don't do pairs, the females do all the work, the males are off duty once they have mated.

If you have standing water in your gutters, that is a problem, free water and nearby nest space, just takes a bit of digging. Food wise, they are not particular, think tree blossoms are preferred, more of them than the garden plants.

44 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I seem to have too many in my house for being a solitary predator.

Right around now or April I start to see them again and they peak in September before they pretty much disappear again around late October. 

They're also hideous looking. 

Agree that they are really off putting to most of us. But they have their place, hopefully not in the kitchen or dining room.

They like dark spaces and they prey on other arthropods, spiders, roaches etc. If you get a surge of them in spring, it may be because your house is the best place for finding food, they may be getting rid of creepy crawlies you do not know about. However, if your garden and basement are damp, your house may simply be their lifeboat. They do not flourish when things are wet. 

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

 

How do you feel about those 3 inch centipedes that like to live in the home?

They are a nuisance, but they do eat the various smaller creatures often found around the house, such as silverfish.

They are otherwise harmless, unlike their 8" plus tropical counterparts, which have a nasty bite.

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Meanwhile I'm trying to figure out ways to keep these giant carpenter bees out that enter my house every Spring.

I don't hurt them or anything. I just close the door and leave for an hour or two; when I come back, they're always gone.  They must be smart enough to know how to leave on their own.

 

Check your soffits, these bees were boring holes there and building their homes around my eaves. They are not colony minded, so each bee has its own hole. 

Al the end of a season, there are many holes.

On 3/7/2025 at 6:34 AM, chubbs said:

 

Another news article on the Antarctic Current study. Found this write-up, by the study authors, more insightful. Not good news, study predicts we are on the verge of a slowdown in Antarctic overturning. Also linked the study journal article.

We’ve long known the North Atlantic overturning currents are vulnerable, with observations suggesting a slowdown is already well underway, and projections of a tipping point coming soon. Our results suggest Antarctica looks poised to match its northern hemisphere counterpart – and then some.

https://theconversation.com/torrents-of-antarctic-meltwater-are-slowing-the-currents-that-drive-our-vital-ocean-overturning-and-threaten-its-collapse-202108

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05762-w

Am I correct that there is absolutely no current evidence of the projected decline? The chart here has a huge change between 2030 and 2050, but nothing before then.

6 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

If it hasn’t already happened for you, you’ll know when the front is moving through. 

How come weather maps don't routinely show the fronts any more?

They used to be a fixture on the daily forecasts, not so much any more.

On 2/13/2025 at 12:19 PM, LibertyBell said:

This has been my thinking for a decade I think we had a conversation about it on the old forum.  Evolution paves the way for the destruction of the evolving species, devolution as you say (and as I wrote back then.)

Humanity actually peaked in intelligence about 3000 years ago according to a study I read.  The Ancient Greeks, Egyptians, Sumerians, were far more capable of thinking on their feet than people in our society are and the scientific method and math they created form the basis of the society we have today.

Have you ever read about the Antikythera device? It was the world's first ancient computer, made entirely of stone and able to predict eclipses and occultations years in advance. Created by the great Archimedes.

That machine is on display in Athens, along with some really fine computer imagery of how it worked. It is truly a marvel, both conceptually as well as practically it is a marvel.

Note that it had multiple gear trains, precision crafted to replicate the movements of the planets. The instructions were on the box, they were only discovered in the last couple of decades.

Northern California has been getting sustained rain for the last three days, if the radar maps are to be trusted.

Has anyone any insight as to whether that is materially more than usual?

37 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Is it on pavement and roads?

Both

A dusting to maybe an half inch of very fine snow on the UES in Manhattan. Snow is continuing at a slow rate at 9.00PM..

The memory hole concept is alive and well, especially in DC.

Don,

Was January 2925 precipitation in NYC the lowest on record or was the drizzle yesterday enough to prevent that?

16 hours ago, dseagull said:

What can we expect to happen now that the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement? 

 

More of the same?   World ends in 10 years?   Think people will stop buying Teslas, now that everyone thinks Elon musk is a Nazi?   What about the pause on offshore wind?

 

Are we doomed? 

Seems to me that the Paris Climate Agreement was mainly eyewash, hence there will be no effect.

Reality is that China and India, the largest coal users by far, got a free pass for promises to get better sometime in the 2030s.

Now that the US is out, it will be business as usual, with perhaps less need to pretend to be green.

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yep. I noticed that and was just going to leave it out, but its an official OB so i included it but im sure its too low

Walking through the Park showed snow cover pretty thin, consistent with the official 1.6" estimate.

However, the ground had been wet and it is possible that the initial snowfall was melted, Certainly there was a lot of ice patches where snow had been cleared.

The most accumulation was definitely on the rustic wooden fences, they had easily half again as much snow depth as the ground, probably because their surface was pretty dry when the snow began. 

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

1.6 central park complete bust..

Seems legit, I don't know where they measure, but walking around in the Park it's about 2" all over.

Maybe 2" tops here in Manhattan's UES. 

My hopes for 4-8" were dashed. But it's better than nothing and it should stay around for a little while.

Now steady snow on the UES, roads with about an inch of snow/snizzle.

Still seems well short of expectations for me, but hopefully I'll be delighted tomorrow morning.

7 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Stop trolling, it’s been sticking for a while now, even on the streets. Coming down hard. 

Perhaps you're getting a jackpot, but I'm not.

Here on the UES near 90th St, it's thin snow and at most a half inch on snizzle on the roads.

Nothing on the ground and no precip currently at 6.45 PM here in Manhattan. Seems a bust.