etudiant

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

wrong. the brown marmorated stink bug is from asia

Agree that that is a new one to join the throng, apparently first found in PA around the turn of the century, but spreading since across most of the US.

We do have plenty of native stink bugs to keep it company though.

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

you didn't read it

Just the non paywalled section.   

The punch line:  These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.

Sounds like a plausible hobgoblin to me.

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Stink bugs too I think?  I had never seen one before a few years ago and now I even see these alien looking creatures in my house, let alone outside.  Is this another one of those cheap imports?

 

Nope, 100% American. Maybe climate change has expanded their range a bit.

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i guess it's easier to cut and paste mark twain instead of read the paper

I actually did read the paper and was tempted but refrained from quoting HL Menken:  The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

I believe it to be quite apposite in this case, grant seeking researchers are no different from politicians, they make their case on the 'if it bleeds, it leads' principle.

21 hours ago, forkyfork said:

here's a new paper on the subject: link

As Mark Twain said: "That's the wonderful thing about science, you get such a wholesale return in conjecture on such a trifling investment of facts'.

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Where did these come from?  Maybe a chemical treatment will be developed, although I'm not very fond of pesticide use, especially with what we learn about them years later.

 

Afaik, the Spotted Lantern Fly is a gift from Asia, coming in courtesy of poorly vetted imports.. Not sure if cutting down on our purchases of cheap Chinese junk such as IPhones would help much at this point, although perhaps it might prevent the Barred Lantern Fly and equivalent in the future..

Frankly, with the Asian Ash Borer and the Asian Long Horned beetle also both now well established here, I hear the sound of barn doors getting slammed shut somewhat belatedly....

4 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Lantern flies are ridiculous out this way. I’ve cut down the large ailanthus trees, but the new shoots are loaded with the bugs. I despise that plant to begin with due to its stink and proliferous seeding.
 

But, the bugs are now into my black walnut trees more extensively than last year. Other than “stomping them out”, any other successful methods?

Afaik, there is no effective treatment currently. Ideally, there would be a specialized predatory wasp or something, but it has not been found as yet.

Guess that stomping them is at least modestly satisfying, even though it is quite futile.

Seems we have lots to be humble about, judging by the forecast performance to date.

Admittedly, we are just at the start of the real hurricane season, but the reduced forecast by JB at least suggests that.

7 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good afternoon Irish. Your far from clueless. I remember 70 years ago,  if there was limited meat to be had it was for my father. My sister and I were filled with vegetables and pasta starches. If your family was having chicken on Sunday, you had bragging rights. The dog was given any available leftovers. I still remember my dog eating spaghetti. Today that would have been viral material. We all did very well. I still have to finish everything given to me on my plate. The stigma of wasting food never left me. As always ….

Amen to that!

Wasting is a sin, although I'm not sure Fluffy ever considered that aspect.

On 7/29/2021 at 4:46 PM, rclab said:

I only heard what sounded like a mournful lonely one in the sycamores, this past Tuesday. For that little ones sad song, cicada and celibacy will have to rhyme. As always …

Afaik, they do actually eat, unlike some other adult insects, so they can last longer than you might think

Still, appreciate the mental image of a lonely cicada belting out its courtship song into an empty void....

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Brazil has been unusually cold and old people are talking about the first snowfall they've ever seen there in their entire lives.  Large amounts of crops frozen.  Part of the same pattern?

 

Buy coffee, the cold in Brazil will really impact supply.

Maybe switch to Red Bull?

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

well the cicadas have been here for a few days now.  Not a lot of them, seems like the normal amount and around the time when they arrive (they used to get here in early July but it's been late July the past few years.)

 

Interesting to hear, they have likewise just really begun to be heard here in NYC Central Park. I've only seen one thus far on my daily walks, but there are scattered individuals audible as well.

There is nothing like the 'brood of the century' hype that was widely posted in the media. In fact, thus far it is a pretty spotty performance, even compared to last year.

2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It tried to clear over me but the really thin clouds were to my east. The light under and across that part of the cloud deck turned yellow/green for a few minutes and some storms fired up and moved off to the NE quickly. It's rumbling and breezy with the occasional windblown raindrop and very muggy. My garden beds are  dry 2" down and parched at 4" (again). One the upside I pulled over 5 pounds of potatoes today Gonna plant more now.

Love gardeners.

They are the truth squad in the climate wars. Can't claim cooling if the beans fill in a couple of weeks earlier than previously.

Here in NYC our first Day Lilies blossomed around June 20th, they usually are an Independence Day phenomenon.

12 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

This trend won't persist if we keep increasing the GHG forcing. We will turn the global climate system into an equable state as existed during the late Miocene and prior.

There are reasons to be optimistic and none of those reasons involve geoengineering.

Surely true, but I'd really like some modeling explanation why there is a 40 year cooling trend in both East as well as West Antarctica.

It just seems a weird anomaly that needs to be understood.

53 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

I am not seeing anything remarkable there are much cloudiness to accurately gauge sea ice area and extent is unremarkably low and normal as of late.

The evidence is piling on for warming elsewhere cooling the Arctic during the summer by tightening the 500mb layer in the atmosphere. Eventually the system will reach hysteresis it's already happening.

Would note that the Antarctic appears to be mostly cooling. See:  https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/2/217/htm

Punch line in the summary discussion: ' The temperature trend from ERA5 is consistent with that from observations, in which a cooling trend dominates East Antarctica and West Antarctica, while a warming trend exists in the Antarctic Peninsula except during austral summer.'

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

the solution that sounds simple but might work is plant trees and stop raping the rain forests...

Estimates are that it could work, but only on a huge scale, such as adding a trillion trees.

Iirc, the North Eastern US has reforested pretty substantially in the last century, so we just have to get India, China and Brazil on board....

Think Rclab has a clearer understanding of the Central Park situation, it needs giraffes and elephants both, although goats are always welcome.

On 7/14/2021 at 9:50 AM, gravitylover said:

My potatoes were doing better than I've ever had and then the wet... I can't even dig them up to try and save them, it's so wet the skins will just rip. I'm so bummed. So far the tomatoes are ok but my expectations for that to continue are pretty low. Lettuce is gone, peppers are pretty much useless and not producing, beans are slooow and brassiccas are also on their way out prematurely. 

I hope we get a chance at a second season.

Not a real gardener, but I'd thought that raised beds were developed just for these kind of conditions.

Admittedly, not that easy to put up raised beds and there are probably downsides I don't know about.

Deer are probably the best reason to be driving a full sized F-150 truck or similar in the NE suburbs.

Iirc, deer collisions are the most common cause of death or injury from wildlife. Bringing back wolves and cougars would be a life saving measure, as well as ecologically very desirable.

Is the Furnace Creek temperature still measured at the same location as was the 1913 record?

Iirc, there was a discussion about the location a few years back, with skeptics claiming that the site had been shifted to a hotter location, hotter because it was less exposed, sort of NYC Central Park in reverse..

I've no idea whether that is in fact valid in this case, but it does point to one of the difficulties encountered in maintaining consistent records.

Was the Siberian heatwave last year not similarly beyond prior model estimates?

It covered a larger area, afaik and the deviations from the norm were at least as great.

Should that be seen as supporting evidence for a qualitative shift?

24 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

I'll allow these posts since all sides can't stand him lol. 

Thank you!

Merkel without the charm, amazing he got reelected.

1 minute ago, rclab said:

Probably being shared by our NYC Mayor Big Bird. As always……

Too bad he is stuffed.  It would have been nice to have had a live one.

52 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

the availability of fresh water is going to f everything up.

i don't see how the desert southwest is going to sustain the kind of population it has over the long term.  there's adjustments that can be made, and desalination can be installed, but the area is just so far over its natural carrying capacity.

Afaik, the desert has ample water for the people, what really drains the aquifers is large scale agriculture of very water intensive crops such as alfalfa.

Underground resources are not usually communally regulated (oil is an important exception, all sorts of regulations there), so abusive practices are the norm.

Tragedy of the Commons, in modern dress, imho.

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

7.09 million sq km is the NSIDC area today....usually I want to see something around 6.60 million sq km or lower by tomorrow to have a plausible shot at a new record. Preferably lower than 6.5 million sqkm.....2012 was 6.42 on the 7/1 data (which isn't reported until 7/2)

Given the excursions we've just had on the West coast, I'd not be overly confident in historic trends. Clearly things can and do change on a dime