etudiant

8 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

my theory is that we are few years behind in arctic ice melt. 

So what is your implication, that we will see rising arctic ice levels from here on out?

Just wish there was a little more humility all around.

With a reliable instrument record dating back two centuries at most, we have no real experience in the inherent variability of the environment.

It would help if there were longer term records of first frosts and such, but afaik, nobody thought that was important until recently.

Hence we get excited whenever our short experience base gets exceeded. Great for papers, not necessarily so for actual understanding.

icne

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah this is what happens when you dont abide by federal regulations, they are there for a reason.

 

Texas decided to stay off the federal infrastructure, so there is no meaningful power transfer possible between Texas and the rest of the USA.

 Someone would need to pay for the needed gigawatt power links from the rest of the country, if that was indeed available.

That said, I think it disgustingly irresponsible to sell power without some minimal reliability standard. In Texas, that apparently was the norm.

On 2/26/2021 at 3:30 PM, blue sky said:

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

A small segment of the NASA report....

"However, carbon dioxide fertilization isn’t the only cause of increased plant growth—nitrogen, land cover change and climate change by way of global temperature, precipitation and sunlight changes all contribute to the greening effect. To determine the extent of carbon dioxide’s contribution, researchers ran the data for carbon dioxide and each of the other variables in isolation through several computer models that mimic the plant growth observed in the satellite data.

 

Results showed that carbon dioxide fertilization explains 70 percent of the greening effect, said co-author Ranga Myneni, a professor in the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University. “The second most important driver is nitrogen, at 9 percent. So we see what an outsized role CO₂ plays in this process.”

Way to go Co2.  The Sahara desert is shrinking!  Food production soaring.

 

In Texas...During the crisis wind power disappeared(froze)...normally high in February.  Carbon powered surged.  But even that could not make up for the incredible demand.  Were some plants offline?  Yes...but the online ones provided amazing amount of power.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-spins-into-the-wind-11613605698

 

Excerpts

While millions of Texans remain without power for a third day, the wind industry and its advocates are spinning a fable that gas, coal and nuclear plants—not their frozen turbines—are to blame. PolitiFact proclaims “Natural gas, not wind turbines, main driver of Texas power shortage.” Climate-change conformity is hard for the media to resist, but we don’t mind. So here are the facts to cut through the spin.

Texas energy regulators were already warning of rolling blackouts late last week as temperatures in western Texas plunged into the 20s, causing wind turbines to freeze. Natural gas and coal-fired plants ramped up to cover the wind power shortfall as demand for electricity increased with falling temperatures.

 

While millions of Texans remain without power for a third day, the wind industry and its advocates are spinning a fable that gas, coal and nuclear plants—not their frozen turbines—are to blame. PolitiFact proclaims “Natural gas, not wind turbines, main driver of Texas power shortage.” Climate-change conformity is hard for the media to resist, but we don’t mind. So here are the facts to cut through the spin.

Texas energy regulators were already warning of rolling blackouts late last week as temperatures in western Texas plunged into the 20s, causing wind turbines to freeze. Natural gas and coal-fired plants ramped up to cover the wind power shortfall as demand for electricity increased with falling temperatures.

Yea old fashioned energy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Texas outages were largely the result of there being no legal disincentive for providing unreliable power, just so long as it was cheaper.

So no one winterized their turbines, feed water pumps or gas extraction stations, not cost effective.

Result was gas powered capacity shut down for lack of gas, nuclear plant offline because the feed water pump sensors froze, coal plants shut because the coal was frozen in and wind turbines dead because they were frozen. Bad regulations caused this debacle, not 'green energy'.

On 2/26/2021 at 9:42 AM, Dan76 said:

TWC   https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2020-10-14-winter-2020-2021-temperature-outlook-united-states They kinda switched FEB

TWC is an IBM company and IBM was loudly advertising their powerful AI based forecasting prowess.

So this forecast is perhaps a reality check, there is still lots of room for improvement in this space.

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Last threat of the season

 

A bold assertion indeed. Not a projection that I can put much stock in.

Given how erratic this winter has been, we'll probably wind up with a blizzard in May.

On 2/22/2021 at 9:29 AM, bdgwx said:

We cannot eliminate the possibility that we've seen the winter max for 2021.

The updated NSIDC trend lines support your supposition. Also the Arctic is considerably warmer than usual this year.. https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

11 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I usually just go to NSIDC directly. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

I did see that glitch on that site earlier today. I was assuming the glitch was isolated to that site. The data on the NSIDC site looks good.

The data on that link also stop at Feb 19th and the scan map shows that one sector was unscanned, which was the cause of the sudden downturn.

Maybe a data processing issue with the satellite or the ground station?

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC has 38.6” and BOS has 38.4”.

Slant sticking again in Central Park?

2 hours ago, bdgwx said:

We've seen a pretty substantial decline in the NSIDC sea ice extent the last few days.

The last time the winter max occurred in February was 2015. So there is recent precedent.

 

No expert, but the data at :  https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRT2.html  show some sort of glitch since Feb 19th. Is there a better source?

Separately, I do agree that the recent ice trends have been suggestive of an early peak, but we do need a better confirm.

1 hour ago, bkviking said:

I posted this in NYC banter forum 

but figured lots of  us love the old weatherchannel graphics local forecast scroll 

 

this provides it now! Freaking awesome. Just missing music - but for a lot of us, a nice addition to our forecasts but with a giant swath of nostalgia 
 

https://battaglia.ddns.net/twc/

Thank you for this helpful link.

I'm obviously a dinosaur, but I thought it a mistake to ditch the old style weather maps with the fronts indicated.

I don't find the maps with colored blobs of hi and lo pressure as informative.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

A photo from this afternoon:

 

Is it just me, seeing leak paths all over the place here?

Guess I was too long at the fair in suburbia...

21 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

NO POLITICS. 

Agree entirely, but this is just stupid, not politics.

A f***g nuclear plant going off stream because the cooling water pumps were frozen??? Just brain dead greed imho.

2 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

ERCOT just said that Texas’s power grid was a mere MOMENTS AWAY FROM CATASTROPHIC FAILURE:

 

 

 

Sadly it is only after such catastrophes that we learn to set serious standards.

Shipping is safer because of the Titanic, buildings are safer because of the Triangle Shirt Waist fire, Texas had lots of warning that cold spells could be a problem,  but no one hit the mule over the head with a 2x4 to help it see reason. 

Imho this is just another lesson that will soon be forgotten.

4 hours ago, TexMexWx said:

I only got another 1.2" of snow from overnight, so my total is 4.6" over these two events. I am considering myself very fortunate, as my power hasn't gone out at any point over these past few days. I'm not sure what's sparing me, as friends living only a mile away have been having their power going on and off.

Afaik, the grid managers are prioritizing locations with hospitals and similar sensitive facilities, at the expense of residential and industrial sectors.

Not sure how easily that is actually implemented though...

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember seeing images from the north with snow looking like mountain ranges with cars driving in the "valleys"

I wonder what the highest annual average snowfall total is from a location at sea level?

 

Well, I've only been there in winter along the eastern coast, so can attest robust deep snow cover. But don't have any idea of seasonal averages.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

do they get coastal storms more intense than ours?  I wonder why Tokyo doesn't get more snow lol

 

Hokkaido is considerably (about 500 miles) further north than is Tokyo, so it gets snow where Tokyo gets rain.

The liquid equivalents may even be in the same ballpark.

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Hope she heals fast.  Ice is so damn dangerous.  Give me a rainstorm any day over a ZR storm. 

Two storms?  Another one next week? 

Does no one make rubber shoes with some sort of spiked sole?

They don't need to be huge spikes, just enough to give some grip on slick surfaces.

48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

find a way to get rid of allergens and bugs and I'm fine with spring

 

That's nature coming back. Sneeze and be grateful!

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Just so you all know, 90% of our new posters are socks that sign up with untraceable IPs.  They are impossible to ban bc they just sign right back up with a new IP.   I feel like its only fair you all know this.  

Is it feasible to show the first sign in date for the posters?

That would perhaps allow us to filter the socks.

Whatever happened to the record cold NYC was supposed to experience this weekend?

Very wet snow falling in Manhattan UES since about 9.30 AM, mostly melting on contact.

Actual accumulation is modest, perhaps an inch as of 1PM.

Would guess it might be a more substantial event further north.

12 hours ago, rclab said:

Karma for the Uber rich? As always ......

The super premium super tall apartments are mostly empty, owned by absent individuals to serve as a pied a terre on visits and as a safe stash of funds.

Not so many actually live there, so NYC gets eyesores that don't even give much back economically to the community. 

Now that this is in the books, did JB's expectation of 40"+ in the Poconos verify?

I've always respected his meteorological chops and he did get it right that this would be a big one, but he does get very enthusiastic when in the chase.

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah, forgot. The Conservancy Conservators were taking one shot per inch I guess.

Have to say, the details of how the Central Park site is run are murky, so I've low confidence that the numbers produced are truly representative.

The site is split afaik between the Castle, a high point in the Park and the remaining sensor array, surrounded by shrubbery and perhaps 30 feet lower.

Snow fall measurements are manual iirc, so not automated and consequently less uniform.