etudiant

Imho this is more reassuring.

If the oceans can absorb this massive input of heat without substantial disruption, we are home free. All these effects are logarithmic, the most rapid impacts are early on.

So if the oceans can buffer several decades of warming, we will never have abrupt change, just stuff that has a generational lead time.

On 1/16/2021 at 10:53 AM, rclab said:

I wonder if our species will ever come to a realization that we do not have a monopoly on sentience..... As always. 

Judging by some of our own demonstrators, it may be argued whether our species is in fact sentient....

Who was it who said that people go mad in crowds and return to sanity one by one?

People are expecting too much. Forecasts have many dimensions. Not all of them eventuate.

Here in Manhattan, we had a forecast of a potential Nor'easter for this time about 10 days ago, did not get the snow and precip, but a lovely sunny day with healthy north winds.

I'd call that a solid B forecast, the direction was good, the details less so, but we all know the devil is in the details.

About an hour's worth of mix in Central Park, started between 10 and 11 am as slight graupel with rain, gradually shifted to more snow flakes, all sucked into the wet ground, just a bit of white on some of the dead leaves and the grass. MInimal precipitation. as of noontime a tenth of an inch at the outside, nothing like the half inch of rain predicted.

Very interesting comment about the Three Gorges, it is at such an important locus of Chinese history that I had thought of it as a more social rather than economic project.

What I don't know is the consideration of the downstream effects of the various water storage/diversion projects.

In the US, the Columbia river dams destroyed  a salmon fishery that was more valuable than the irrigated land produced. I've no idea whether the Chinese dam and diversion projects factor in the impacts on the outflow areas or their fisheries.

2 hours ago, cocoland said:

Here is another sketch map of "annual average maximum snow depth"(not snowfall) made by us. The snowfall of the western parts of China is too difficult to estimate so we haven't done it yet.

* the contour was mistakenly drawn around Hulun Buir (overestimated).

** in centimeters

*** shown all claimed territory.

Some famous snowy attractions and towns in China (honestly not comparable with Japan, Russia, Northern Europe, Canada, and USA) :

Kanas Lake, Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang - estimated 150 inches (4 meters) of snowfall annually

Altay City, Xinjiang - estimated 70 inches (1.8 meters) of snowfall

Nyalam County, Xigaze, Tibet - estimated 70 inches (1.8 meters) of snowfall annually, with record maximum snow depth of 2.30 meters which made of two snow events. - snowiest national observation station (WMO ID: 55655).

Xuexiang("snow town") National Forest Park, Changting township, Heilongjiang - estimated 80 inches (2 meters) of snowfall

Heaven Lake of Changbai Mountain, Jilin - estimated 100 inches (2.5 meters) of snowfall 

 

This map is just super to illustrate the China water problem, an arid cold season and an irregularly wet warm season.

No one cares about the peripheral regions, the key is redistributing the  surplus during the rainy season in the south.

We now know that the Three Gorges dam was too small, but the local geography was a constraint. Does anyone have better suggestions?

On 12/23/2020 at 2:49 PM, Brian5671 said:

Who cares?  it's all garbage

Deeply wrong. The ancient Greeks considered politics the highest of the civilized arts, they were not wrong imho.

Politics is the art of managing our country. If it does not benefit the people who live there, they have the right to change it

15 hours ago, cocoland said:

I just drew sketch maps of snowfall in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar, not as high-quality as the annual map though.

Thank you very much for these excellent supplemental maps.

They make it clear that water is crucial in northern China.

With Beijing located in a semi desert region, I can see the logic behind some of China's massive diversion projects  The often unexpected consequences are no surprise to American readers of Mark Reisner's 'Cadillac Desert', which looks at the political and economic drivers and consequences of the comparably massive projects in the western US.

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

did you get to see it later?  it was supposed to be clear tonight, no idea where these nonsense clouds came from, there isn't even a storm nearby

Jupiter sets around 6.30-6.45 pm here, so when I came back at 7.00 pm, the sky was clear of both clouds and the conjunction.

Now pretty reconciled to a long wait, unless Elon sets up some low cost 'Astronomy in Space' tourism.

Hi cocoland,

Your map shows the heaviest snows in the north of China, past around Harbin. The Harbin ice festival is famous, so it is obviously cold, but where does the moisture come from?

The prevailing winds seem to be coming from the Gobi in Mongolia, a pretty dry area afaik. What am I missing?

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2080 actually

or you can just look tonight they'll be almost as close as they were last night and it should be clear

 

Tried again this evening, one brief glimpse thanks to a break in the clouds, no time for a scope view, but they are already well apart.

Hoping for clearer skies later tonight.

Skunked by a wall of clouds over the south western horizon, looking from the Central Park Reservoir.

Guess I have to wait another 800 years.

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Yes, i wasn't even paying attention. I just bought two snowblowers and they were a steal. Since I ordered them they are flying off the stockroom floor....

Business opportunity!!

You were smart and early, time to cash in is now.

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

First snow of the year at CP? 

Central Park climate data base (entire back to 1869), the mean first date of measurable there is December 7. 

 

There was snow in Central Park this morning, although admittedly just individual flakes, so nothing measurable.

Field hospital in NE in January does not sound like fun. What does RI know that we don't?

Am at a loss as to  why we remain so ignorant about the virus transmission. Do masks help or are they a delusion. No real answers, just CDC  bafflegab, they may help we think..

We know that minks are pretty susceptible, so surely there could be tests on transmission using these test animals. Does anyone know what has been done?.

Think the problem is the larvae chew out the trees from the inside, so they are hard to reach.

I don't think the adults do much eating, they focus on reproduction, so killing them requires a species specific virus or a very selective contact poison. Those are hard to come by.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Not to mention the cars that have been crashing into these outdoor seating areas.

These seating structures dramatically narrow the road, so most drivers slow down a lot. If the virus is ever healed, the congestion will be impressive.

Maybe it's all a plot to promote mass transit??

Is there any value to the case numbers other than the obvious, to show that the virus is still here?

It does seem that public policy needs to focus on things such as hospitalizations, where there is a possibly reasonable response. I'm baffled as to what the logical response is to a rising infection case number. Shut down the various public venues, restaurants, airports, train stations? Is the remedy not worse than the disease in these cases?

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The students of mine who are failing are failing because they won’t do shit and turn nothing in. They are treating this as some sort of vacation. At least for me, it’s not the virtual aspect of this but rather the attitude of some students and the hands off don’t have a care in the world attitude of their parents. Just needed to get that in there LOL.

Think that is the secondary but more damaging effect of the virus. Kids lose the sense of personal obligation when there is no personal contact. Once lost, not so sure it is easily recaptured...

3 hours ago, griteater said:

Griteater's Winter Outlook (20-21)

 

Link to PDF: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S-f_HQdrNYZkrRw_6YhkFCkASa0WAZpa/view

 

Also posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1326893718536859649?s=20

 

Top Pattern Analog: Winter of 1893-1894

This is a very fine piece of work, reasoned and supported by historical evidence.

It is work like this that gives hope that longer term weather forecasts can be achieved.

23 minutes ago, Brian D said:

My daughter-in-law shot her deer already as opener was this past weekend. My son still waiting to get his chance.

Tasty critters. I have quite a few racks on my wall from years of hunting.

I thought the does were better eating, meat less rangy than that of the bucks. 

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

My thing is since we know we have a vaccine why not just lockdown until it becomes widely available in a couple of months

Careful, we have a candidate vaccine, tested thus far only on healthy people 18-55. How well it is accepted by the older or more infirm who are most at risk remains tbd.

5 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

I have ties to the Medical Industrial Complex you would die to have. I never mentioned it before or what I worked in exactly for this reason. The trial's control group is a total fraud. Both the infected and non infected were the same in each group or 80-100 people in 20000. Meaning they shot a bunch of junk into noninfected subjects and said it was 90% effective. What a fraud.

fwiw, China already has what Moderna is working on and will begin mass immunizations soon. Probably need it every year until the infection is gone. If it weren't for old people straining the medical system, this strain of Covid would already be 5th page news. Better hope a highly infectious Avian MERS strain never redevelops........................brrr to the young.

 

Agree that the hype about the Pfizer offering is silly, the testing was done on healthy adults (most of whom reported pain, chills and fevers, some severe, from the vaccine). who developed substantial antibody titers quite reliably with the vaccine.

No tests as yet on the old or the infirm, nor how long the protection lasts. There is a good road ahead before this is ready for general use.

6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There should be a pinned thread at the end of the year and awards given out for posts that aged the worst. Some of the ones from August complaining that the long range GFS not showing development meant 2020 was going to be a dud of a tropical season belong there as well 

Let him who is without mistakes lead the posting.

We learn a whole lot more from the edge forecasts, as long as they are well articulated, not just plopped on the boards. If they fail miserably, we can learn what  was mistaken. By contrast, we don't learn much from a sort of OK forecast, even if it seems closer to what actually happened.