etudiant
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Posts posted by etudiant
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43 minutes ago, blizzard1024 said:
And one more thing, when the price of energy goes sky high because of wind and solar which now dots the landscape and degrades the environment, people resort to burning wood because they can't afford to heat their homes. Deforestation goes up. We have been seeing this in Europe. It's a huge problem in the 3rd world when they don't have access to cheap fossil fuels. So they raze their environment causing massive deforestation and mass extinctions. So yeah the green new deal or anything similar before the technology and cost supports it is the biggest threat to our environment in so many ways. If you are an environmentalist like me don't let the name fool you. It is a disaster for our wildlife and natural habitats.
At least in Europe, the deforestation is not because people cannot afford to heat their homes, it is because the 'green' incentives for 'renewable' energy have made it attractive to use pelletized wood chips instead of coal to fuel the power stations. So vast stretches of old forest have been razed to provide these pellets, which incidentally are a much dirtier fuel.
This kind of senseless policy has been vigorously condemned by conservationists, but is hugely profitable for the recipients of the incentives, so ihe damage continues.
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16 hours ago, forkyfork said:
surprised there isn't a flash flood watch. what an impressive sounding for heavy rain
Very nice call!
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7 hours ago, ldub23 said:
Just goes to show seasonal forecasting has a long way to go. I was reading the NHC disco on little paul and they mentioned how "Parched" the atmosphere is. everything is parched and sheared even though the east pac continues to cool. I still think sept20-oct 10 might offer something interesting but i also think oct 10 is about the end of the season.
Surely that is a divergence worth investigating. We all know that water vapor is the preeminent greenhouse 'gas', so a parched atmosphere just seems curious given the well above average temperatures we've seen. Does it mean the winds off Africa are unusually dry?
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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
The findings in Mann’s paper were largely reaffirmed.
https://ral.ucar.edu/projects/rc4a/millennium/refs/Wahl_ClimChange2007.pdf
The body of evidence behind AGW is robust. There is no compelling alternative, much less one that has even a fraction of support in the literature that exists for AGW.
Actually, I believe the issue isn’t that climate science hasn’t proved its case so to speak, but that those who reject the overwhelming evidence for AGW are demanding a level of certainty not expected from other fields or disciplines.
I would be happy to see a decent analysis of the 'divergence', which should be a piece of cake now that we have another 20+ years worth of tree rings to evaluate.
I have no beef with current climate measures, the sea ice measures alone are pretty strong evidence. What is less convincing to me is the earlier stability claimed, it seems inconsistent with the historical record.
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With no reflections on this paper, the credibility of all 'climate change' related documents is imho tainted at the source.
The initial Mann 'hockeystick' paper in Nature glossed over that the same dendro evidence used to form the stick showed declining ring formation in the most recent era, which had been interpreted as periods of cooler weather. So that information was frog marched out of the paper, with a chart grafting modern temperature measures on the earlier tree ring data to create the 'hockeystick'.
An honest presentation should have highlighted the divergence, which really produces a downward signal rather that the increase shown by the thermometer measures. Perhaps it just means tree ring data is not fit for the purpose of measuring temperatures. That in itself would be a useful, but afaik that analysis has not been done, nor have there been follow on studies to examine whether the 'divergence' has worsened or improved since the Mann Nature paper.
As a former Wall Streeter, I'm pretty attuned to hard marketing. Prof Mann marketed too hard for me.
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1 hour ago, Rjay said:
6z vs 12z
That is rather sobering.
How does anyone separate the wheat from the chaff?
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8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:
kids?!
You know, people to leave your money to.
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17 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:
Vis Sat kind of makes it looks like a bizarre gravity wave effect. Never seen anything quite like that.
That is a very good catch. Almost doesn't look natural. Looks like a plane dumped a bunch of silver iodide in a straight line to seed the clouds... I'm saving the loops and going to talk to the director of the Hurricane Research Division about this.
There was thing called project storm fury years ago where they did stuff like this.
It moved so fast that aircraft dispensing silver iodide can be ruled out imho. Moreover, the track was straight, not wind distorted from what I could see.
Very peculiar indeed.
THIS ONE FROM TURTLE TAKES THE CAKE
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Aircraft are made of aluminum, so they act as flying Faraday cages, they can be struck by lightning with no internal impact. The wings usually have trailing discharge wicks to leak off any excess charge.
The main risk is flying into severe turbulence, so pilots will try to avoid thunderstorms and the associated anvil clouds.
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5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:
Have to give a thumbs up to the Cedar Rapids home builders, the storm snapped pretty big trees but the houses appeared unscathed.
That is pretty impressive for 100+mph sustained winds.
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22 minutes ago, coolio said:
If you look out the window and the ground is moist, it probably DID rain.
Best comment of the day and surely the most useful!
Given the number of small systems crawling around, no regional forecast is really valid.
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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:
It would be great for long range forecasting if this works out.
That seems to leave open the step of ensuring the models reflect reality. I'd have been happier if the paper had linked to actual historical data.
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10 hours ago, rclab said:
I would enjoy seeing that again. The last time I saw a swarm of fireflies was in Dardanelles Arkansas over a half century ago. Seeing that Again was on my bucket list. It seems that kicking is likely to occur well before filling. The postage stamp is dark and silent again. The family of raccoons has been safely relocated and the bushy tailed tree rodents have filled the void. The entitled felines, mine and other are above it all. Butterfly’s are a rare sight. The other morning my adopted clipped ear feline Honey was in the postage stamp and started meowing. From what I understand a cat only meows to get a humans attention. I opened the back window and she comes jumping up with something dark on her face. I thought she was hurt. As she jumped into the kitchen something dropped to the floor. It was a large blue/ black butterfly with, I believe, color dots in its wings. I was horrified. I quickly picked it up, righted it and brought it to the window, It flew off seeming miraculously unhurt. Honey is young with good teeth. She carried that beautiful winged creature without hurting it, was it luck, an accident, a present for me? I’ll never know. At least it ended well and I haven’t seen one since. As always ....
Sounds like she caught a Pipevine Swallowtail, they are still reasonably abundant, although disappointing as prey.
I'm sure your cat would have much preferred a more substantial prey to offer to you, poor thing is probably mortified.
Frankly, no brilliant thoughts, cats are predatory pets, they are born to hunt and kill things. Absent rats and mice, something else will do, squirrels, warblers, whatever.... Other than keeping the poor things in all the time, there is no solution afaik.
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3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:
Had fireflies in my yard last night.
Lucky you, they are magical for a soft night!
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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:
I've got plenty of cicadas but almost no fireflies.
Think we are late in the season for fireflies, they are more a late spring early summer phenomenon. I'm still hoping for stragglers here in NYC though.
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8 hours ago, CAPE said:
I didn't think this would go well.
Sources: MLB commissioner warns of shutdown if coronavirus isn't better managed
I still don't think the NFL has a clue what they are doing, and imo there is zero chance the season is completed- if it even gets started. There is a reason players are opting out. The NFL "plan" is destined to fail. It was always going to be difficult to pull off given the large rosters and nature of the sport, but they had plenty of time to figure this out, unlimited funds to really get creative, and it appears they have done the minimum.
Hope I am wrong. Only sport I enjoy watching.
How can one reasonably expect the sports business managers to 'figure this out', when that has not been achieved by any other US entity, whether business or government?
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18 hours ago, Juliancolton said:
Kinda nerdy, but I'm excited about the likelihood that I'll see fireflies in my yard during four consecutive calendar months. By far the longest season for them that I've witnessed.
You're so lucky to have them.
The Parks Dept here in NYC sprays religiously, which ensures that the biting bugs are nearly zilch in Central Park, but of course that chops the fireflies and other insects as well. Even the cicadas are by appointment only this year, I've heard maybe a couple in Central Park.
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20 minutes ago, rclab said:
I imagine the implications may become personal for many when the task of pumping and sandbagging become every day tasks. As always ....
I'll know that the Federal Government accepts the reality of global warming when they refuse flood insurance for anyone not at least 10 feet above sea level.
Looking at the beach front mega mansions on Long Island, that day has not yet come.
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Note that as of July 27. 2020, area is only 3.959MM km **2, the lowest on record for the date and the earliest date ever for sub 4MM km**2..
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Arctic ice area is lowest ever for the date, 4.082MM km**2. Area is probably a somewhat better measure of the ice level than extent..
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It would be useful to show a growth zone map from 1950 vs the same today.
Certainly NYC has become Virginia climate wise, although I have no idea whether places further north such as Watertown or Syracuse have warmed comparably. Has Virginia become more like Florida during this same interval?
We commonly see birds in NYC today that would have been very unusual in 1950, obvious birds such as Cardinals. So nature is reacting to the changes, perhaps faster than the academicians.
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5 hours ago, skierinvermont said:
I pay taxes the feds spend billions on disaster relief.
Spot on!
The Federal blank check for 'disaster relief' allows people to just ignore basic science and risk, building on unstable barrier islands as well as shore areas which should be kept free from development. Any sea level increase compounds the risk.
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It is surprising how difficult it is to make even very short term forecasts for these thunderstorms.
The various NYC weather forecasts had fraction of an inch precipitation and modest probabilities through the afternoon, only adjusted upward after 6 pm.
Clearly there is still a lot of room for learning here, we're now talking possibly up to 2" for Manhattan.
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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:
This has an amazing map showing where Neowise is:
Lovely map, albeit centered on Greenwich, England. The NYC scene is captured much less artistically but pretty well here:
It is quite possible to see the comet from Manhattan, with the Central Park Reservoir track a good location, as it has a clear view. The comet was up perhaps 25*, less bright each night as it recedes from the sun, despite its being closest to earth on the 22nd. Incidentally, Saturn is showing beautifully as well currently, at opposition and with wide open rings.
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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
When considering the validity of conspiracy theories, Bismarck's axiom, 'Never believe anything until it has been officially denied', would be worth keeping in mind.