etudiant

On 5/24/2021 at 9:40 PM, Hoosier said:

Can you elaborate?

My bad, the CDC only tightened the testing rules for people who were vaccinated, but got Covid anyways. They did not change anything for routine testing afaik.

The new rules limit the number of PCR cycles that can be used to 28, well under the broader norm of 35-40. Apparently the results become more dubious as the cycle number rises, at least according to Dr Fauci, who said any result from 35 or more cycles is 'meaningless'.

4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Cases are declining very fast. I think we are just about ready ( maybe even ready now?)to do away with mask

Do note that the CDC criteria for a Covid diagnosis have been tightened, so the comparisons are no longer like for like.

On 5/22/2021 at 7:01 AM, chubbs said:

Its been accelerating since the start of the industrial revolution. Almost no sea level rise from Roman times to 1800. 1" in the 1800s, 6" in the 1900s. 1.5" per decade now.

https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2016/08/what-roman-ruins-reveal

The late John Daly had a website titled: 'Still waiting for Greenhouse', which prominently featured a high tide marker placed in 1841 on an island off Tasmania by British Admiral Napier.

That benchmark is still quite visible and well clear of the water at low tide, as shown in the associated photos.  http://www.john-daly.com/

It does cast some doubt on the claimed sea level rise acceleration.

striking how LGA has so many more 90* days than NYC.  Is that because the NYC temperature is taken in Central Park, where the greenery tempers the heat?

On 5/19/2021 at 9:30 PM, Will - Rutgers said:

oddly enough it's using the same nest it did last year although i didn't see it through most of fall and all of winter.

You're lucky, I've never found a pigeon nest in the wild, although there must be zillions around here in NYC.

But I am surprised the nest survived the winter, must be in a good spot that makes it worth reusing.

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature soared into the middle and upper 80s in most of the region today. Newark was the region's hot spot with a high temperature of 91°. At Chibougamau, QC, the temperature reached 83°. That broke the daily record high temperature of 80°, which was set in 2010. Tomorrow and Friday will be fair and cooler in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas with temperatures holding mainly in the 70s. Lower 80s are possible in central and southern New Jersey southward.

The dominant weather story into at least the closing week of May will be the synoptic impact of a strongly to occasionally severely negative PNA. That development will lead to a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of May. There will likely be additional days where the temperature makes a run at 90° in parts of the region.

Today, the preliminary value of the PNA was -1.662. That was lowest figure since March 31 when the PNA was -1.775. That was also the lowest figure in May since May 31, 2018 when the PNA was -1.767. The PNA is forecast to remain at or below -1.000 until around May 24. During the May 16-31, 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.4° (1.2° above normal).

 

Don, has there been any previous swing of this magnitude in your experience?

We went from the odds for a sub normal May to a well above normal probability in much less than a week.

9 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

there's a rock dove at work who made its nest right above a doorway, i saw this morning one of the eggs had fallen out and cracked, very sad.

Rock doves operate on the Facebook principle, move fast and break things. So they make cursory quick nests and hurry to get the kids out on their own, then go on to the next nest.

There is probably a bestselling business strategy book in there somewhere. 

7 minutes ago, Uniblab said:

Directions

Marinade the cicadas in the Worcestershire sauce for at least 45 minutes.

Beat the eggs. Blend in the wild onion.

Mix the sea salt and black pepper into the flour.

Melt the butter in a frying pan over low heat.

Strain the cicadas from the Worcestershire sauce.

Increase the heat under the frying pan to medium

Drop the cicadas in the egg-wild onion blend. Stir.

Pull the cicadas from the egg-wild onion blend and roll in the flour-sea salt-black pepper mix.

Saute the cicadas gently until they are golden brown. 

Seems like it should be a healthy dish, the cicadas are purely vegan, unlike farmed shrimp that are raised in near cesspools. 

But 17 years between meals is a difficult marketing problem.

1 hour ago, Uniblab said:

Wild Onion Cicada Nibblers

Ingredients

• 1 cup freshly emerged, blanched cicadas
• 1 cup Worcestershire sauce
• 4 eggs, beaten
• 4 tablespoons finely chopped wild onion stalks (scallion stalks may be substituted)
• 3 cups flour
• 2 tablespoons sea salt
• 2 tablespoons black pepper
• 1 cup salted butter

You're a fan of nature in the raw or are the cooking instructions secret?

46 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

You must be single and not have any kids. It would cost considerably more in electricity to run space heaters in a couple of bedrooms than to spend $15 on 5 gallons of diesel. 

Well I just had a new experience. I went to let the dog out and do my morning garden walk with a cup of hot coffee and got attacked by a huge turkey. The thing was feasting on my early lettuce crop  and didn't appreciate my company.

 

Turkeys are fussy eaters, so compliments on your lettuce.

I'd not sound the 'All Clear' as yet,  the case load in Asia is surging, not just in India, after having been back down to relatively low numbers.

Research studies suggest the virus could potentially be 100x more infectious, although that may also influence its health impact in some unpredictable way.

So there is a real risk that this will be a long drawn out affair.

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How about we bring the predators back and human beings stop interfering with nature?

Afaik, coyotes can take a deer, but pumas and wolves are really much more suitable. Good luck getting their return accepted by suburban America.

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s possible, but some of these are young deer. There’s an area at which they used to graze that is now fenced off and is being turned into garden on the adjacent plot of land. At the same time, the deer population has increased over that of last year. 

Deer populations in the East are way above normal carrying capacity, thanks to the absence of predators and the proliferation of edge habitat due to suburban sprawl.

Lyme disease is likely to have a great time this year, not too dry a winter for the ticks and plenty of deer to feed on.

Iirc, Greenwich Audubon had about 600 deer on their roughly 1 square mile property, they tried to cull the herd with bow hunters over a salt lick, with no real effect.

So the ground cover and low nesting birds are toast.

Eventually there will be a disease that culls the herd, most likely something such as Chronic Wasting Disease, which is as ugly as it sounds.

On 5/4/2021 at 9:31 PM, hardypalmguy said:

What?

As with the temperature record, the past data once disappeared can be 'adjusted' freely to enhance desired trends.

Absent some plausible motive, one should always be suspicious when original data is removed.


.

Life on earth began about as soon as the surface cooled enough to allow liquid water, so it seems a pretty quick process.

Intelligent life on the other hand took a little longer, many would say it still not yet here.

5 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Been using this site for years (over a decade?) and I see its being decommissioned.  Any other comparable sites that tabulate all the GFS data out to 15 days? 

As now displayed on wxweb.meteostar.com/sample

Attention: On 19 April 2021, this web site ( wxweb ) will be decommissioned.
If you wish to continue using similar features for a fee, contact [email protected].
We have appreciated your use of wxweb and your feedback over the years.

As of 4 May 2021 data on this site may become old or unavailable.

Think Orwell had something to say about those who control the past...

Frankly, storage these days is so cheap that there is no excuse for deleting data. Anyone who does so should be suspected of ulterior motives.

35 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I don't know why the peark is casting swine but in jan 2022 we will know if it's still El Nino or going into La Nina. 

Maybe a link to a site that explains these charts, pretty please?

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Can't wait for the city to reopen fully by July 1

Not sure I'd put much weight on a deBlasio promise. If India is any guide, I'd keep my mask on well beyond that date.

Would someone please post a link to site where this spaghetti chart is explained?

As is, it is possibly casting pearls before swine. I at least will admit that I'm baffled, but where can I get less so?
 

Seems short sighted to let the virus evolve in the poorer countries, the vaccines we have are not magic bullets, they protect against some variants, not against all.

It just seems that neither common sense nor charity are getting much traction in the official reaction to the epidemic.

20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Compulsory. Not a chance in hell.

Think it will be like a drivers license, you'll need it if you want to use air transport and and maybe also rail and bus transport, as well as attending mass performances like concerts.

So not  'compulsory', but pretty close.

Honestly I'd not hesitate to act.

The country is going to be swimming in vaccines by the end of the month, multiple suppliers all revving up production.

I'd expect vaccination to be compulsory by the end of May, in order to help restore normal activity.

16 hours ago, David T said:

Having had a brush with an F4 in the the third grade, I've spent the last 40 plus years as an "amateur meteorologist" for family and friends with regard to extreme weather events.

It's been amazing over the years having a weather radar that demonstrated vibrant greens and reds reflecting rotation and precipitation, in addition to geometric shapes that reflected different types of active warnings.  Overlaid on a map with interstates, rivers, and highways, I could comfortably sit in my home while feeding a baby in a high chair as a major tornado moved 10 or 15 miles to the south.

The flash issue aside, I strongly suspect this new radar was designed by somebody who enjoys checking the weather on a screen that is just a few inches in width and diameter. In my opinion, that should be a last resort when out and about or after the power goes out.

Unless they can provide explicit instructions on how to make the new product more like the flash product, people are going to die. I would welcome a tutorial that made that happen, and I don't mean the nonsense contained under FAQ.

Agree fully, a useful product has been eliminated for no good reason.

Does no one at the NWS care?

2 hours ago, rclab said:

When I was working, a major celebration took place when ever one of the duffers broke 100. As always .....

My handicap was 2, as in 'factor of'. Breaking 100  was just out of the question. I'd even have paid for the celebration, had the concept been current.

8 hours ago, Cfa said:

Great time to walk with your lady friend. Don't miss it!!