RVASnowLover
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Everything posted by RVASnowLover
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Next weekend looks promising but we’ll see. Tomorrow will be dicey for several hours but we’ll warm up and things will get better
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If the NAM is right then we’re looking at a good ice event here
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A little early to be looking at the mesos but the 18z NAM gives us a decent amount of freezing rain. Something to watch
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I would think the Winter Storm Watch will be come an advisory here. Maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think Sunday will meet winter storm warning criteria.
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I could see where we get some snow and lots of sleet before a little rain and then dry slot. CAD tends to stick around longer than models predict.
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I would actually take that
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The mountains should do very well. Parts of the piedmont should do well too. Just not our storm. Hopefully we cash in on the next one
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Overall pattern still looks good but we’ll see. So hard to get good snowstorms here. Even just a couple of small details can make the difference between rain and snow
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Yeah…this will be a miss for us. Maybe we get 1-3 before we changeover. Not excited about this one at all.
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Euro ensembles appear to be slightly more west but a larger spread.
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18z gfs op and ensembles were improved. See if this is a trend.
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Gfs ensembles were better than 6z. Onto euro
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12z gfs doesn’t change much. Snow, to mix, to rain. At this point I’m just hoping we get snow, some mix and then dry slot
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Flash freeze is possible. Hard to say at this time
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As of now looks like measurable snow and then rain will come wash it away. See if any changes today
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18z ensembles looked good
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Still way to early to get excited about it. Things will continue to change. As of now though both the gfs and euro ensembles look good. And as always here with coastal storms you have to worry about warm air aloft and the dreaded dry slot. We’ll see.
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As I thought they would be, euro ensembles are much better for us. Neither euro or gfs ensembles support the OP
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Euro OP is pretty similar to the GFS. Low is too far inland. We start out as snow then go to a cold rain. Seems about right honestly. See what the ensembles say
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Right now I’m focusing more on the ensembles. The OPS are all over the place. GFS is drunk. Now is over-amplified and gets rain inland. At this stage the ensembles are the way to go. GFS ensembles were good
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Guess that’s why no one in the SE board is posting the Euro. Suppressed!
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00z euro is a big miss. Suppressed. Doesn’t even get snow into NC. As of now the GFS is by itself. Time for things to change but as of now this weekend isn’t looking like much, if anything
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Of course the GFS ensembles did not support the OP at all
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would take the 00z gfs and run with it.
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18z gfs is NC special which may be a good thing at this time. Gfs does tend to have a southern bias. We’ll see
