MountainGeek

Same here -- we were forecast to hit 45 and will only make it to 38, and it has been cloudy almost the entire time other than a couple of brief peeks of sun.

So what you're really saying is, expect a juiced wave 1 and amped wave 2?

It did lead the way sniffing out the extent of the warm air intrusion for the Dec storm, so I don't like seeing it come in warmer than the globals....but weenie handbook sez it's just NAM being NAM at this range so nothing to worry about!

Looks tasty -- we're dumping pretty good now, so I think maybe this lasts a bit longer if you're still getting the goods further west.

Yup -- a pretty good win for Winchester. I'm hoping to get one more good pasting out of that outer band, maybe make it to 5". Regardless, snow on snow and a beautiful Sunday morning out there.

30, back to mod/heavy SN, about 3.5" so far....absolutely gorgeous out there

I'm on the Blue Ridge directly east of you, and yes -- never changed over to sleet or FZR here, it's been alternating between mod/heavy and light needles since around 9AM. Currently mod SN, around 8 inches storm total so far.

Does this mean you are staying up for the most important Euro run of the year?

Well it seems to have our Jan 9 MECS a touch slower with the Maine hammer a bit more east....a few dozen more adjustments and we're in bizness.....we have PLENTY of time....

That depends --- does it show blue over you?

Models are constantly being upgraded/improved for overall accuracy, which results in less accumulated error out in time. There have been major improvements in the 4-7 day range vs say 10 or 20 years ago. So in many cases the error isn't "off" as much as it used to be, which means less adjustment as we get closer to game time. That said, different patterns can be more or less likely to shift (the super-gurus here track the known biases of the models and can tell us generally whether the scenario is one that is likely to adjust one way or another). Edit -- and ninjaed by @CAPE.....with the specific pattern analysis....

Of course --- NWP never verifies when it shows good for us, but modeled bad setups always verify 100%! IIRC, this time last year we had exactly that: no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. NWP and most outlooks were calling for a great winter with lots of potential. Signs looked great going into last winter, and that turned into a disaster. So maybe things look terrible going into this winter, but there's still plenty of time and luck for the reality to turn out at least mediocre (which would surpass last year) or get us somewhat close to median.

Going straight for the kill shot I see.......not even giving @WxWatcher007 a chance to have fun baiting the poor weenies for a couple of months before they succumb to the final plunge of despair.

Here's a pretty cool ENSO - snowfall chart from Josh Timlin; this clearly illustrates many of the ongoing discussion points, especially in terms of setting general expectations for the upcoming winter: https://www.joshtimlin.com/enso-charts-winter

Posting for historical reference when the winter ends up giving us "decent" median amounts -- let's go ahead and get rock bottom out of the way now! Although @Maestrobjwa might just get his wish of widespread pain and suffering along the entire east coast. Ben Noll put together a "blend" of global winter snowfall anomalies from the ECMWF+UKMET: https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf

I would also think it makes sense to weight the EPS more heavily since the GEFS has already blinked, and EPS seems to be holding steady atm.

I love how quiet it gets in here when we actually have a legit snow event underway.

I think you're missing the caveat that PSU was talking about the -NAO being mandatory to counteract the -PNA and huge central PAC ridge if they remained locked in place. However, get the pig ridge out of the way and then there are other paths to success that don't mandate a -NAO.

The point was to try some reverse psychology on the snow gods....if you can't find it, maybe they can't either. Although I suppose I could change it to "Cleveland Park PUMMELED".....

Done.

For those who are interested, some good background from the ECMWF. Also notable is the fact that winter forecasts tend to be more reliable due to longer wavelengths. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/153/meteorology/25-years-ensemble-forecasting-ecmwf Evolution of ensemble forecast quality Thanks to model upgrades, improvements in the data assimilation system, the use of more observations, and the ENS configuration changes discussed above, the ENS performance has increased substantially during the past 25 years. Figure 7 Time evolution, from 1 January 1995 to today, of the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) of ENS forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height over the northern hemisphere, for lead times of 24 hours, 72 hours, 120 hours, 168 hours and 240 hours. Forecasts are verified against operational analyses. The more or less regular pattern of peaks and troughs in each line stems from differences in predictability related to the seasons: winter weather tends to be more predictable than summer weather.

Can you imagine a world with guaranteed backyard Jebwalks every time the temp drops below 29F? You even get to choose whether you want falling snow during the Jebwalk or just want to admire all the snow that "fell" overnight in the ripping-fatties-all-night-long-personal-blizzard.

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PSU sez this is a lock!

Weenies DO NOT JUMP due to shutout period coming up, and don't let long-range NWP drive you to despair.... May I suggest an additional elective: Guru Mashups: How to cherry-pick expert commentary to support your desired outcome