MountainGeek

Quite so.....we got 6 inches on Nov 15 last year.....

We got 5 or 6 inches last year on Nov 15, maybe an early start again for this season? Would be really nice to get a little appetizer on the board up front, say a couple inches or even some mood flakes. The years where we're completely shutout with torches or "no chance" patterns until late Feb or March are the worst......

Ah yes, good point that the ensemble washout wouldn't "see" brief warming periods related to return flow, etc....which then start to factor back in closer in time and moderate the original extreme. I think your approach of analyzing the background state and other supporting factors (or lack of)....like the cross-polar flow you mentioned.....is a smart way to evaluate whether the LR might be on to something or if it is just out to lunch (or trying to lure weenies into early reapings).

Would it be reasonable to say that, more often than not, most LR modeled extremes (hot, cold, HL blocking, etc) tend to moderate somewhat as we get closer in time? That has been my general experience. I figure it has something to do with compounding of modeled errors out in time creating a tendency to overdo things a bit.....

Interesting thoughts from Cranky on the upcoming winter: http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e101819.htm Something you've seen me post since the summer and the process continues to reinforce. We just watched two October storm setups born off this very pattern being emulated by our stream flows. We'll watch the next attempt to do the same.Does this persist into winter? If so I continue to say we could see several more classic arctic outbreaks and classic coastal winter storm tracks.I am not talking about a ceaseless onslaught. The overall winter pattern in my opinion likely features the blander milder November, a colder active December, then January/February maybe a little above norms, with March/April possibly featuring another late period colder/active return.Yet within all of that? Expect a few more classic outbreaks and storm tracks.Of course, it is still early, and it will be another 4 to 8 weeks before we truly know if the support we see now is still in play by then.

Got any verification scores for handy for that model? Also early on last year it seems like almost every model in the LR seemed to be predicting a big -NAO that just kept sliding out into the future and never actually materialized. Maybe we'll play opposite again this year to our advantage.

Wow -- just checked in to see if the winter discussions are starting, and was pleased to find quite a lot of solid technical discussion and good data points! Here's to hoping we can keep this "quality post" trend going...and looking forward to another fun winter tracking season. Pleassseeee just once -- it's time we had a low solar + Modoki + neg NAO + warm blob epic winter. On a more serious note, I'm liking what appears to be a more favorable PAC shaping up, since the PAC really hurt us several times last year.

Absolutely ripping heavy fog here --- best rates of the day! I've never seen fog come down so hard.....

Yeah this one was really weird -- I can't remember the last time Charles Town did better than we did. Maybe the angle of the precip or the BR ended up as one of the main battleground areas with the warm nose bleeding through just enough west to ruin the event for us. Normally your reports are a pretty good benchmark for what's incoming our way during events since I'm on the ridge just about due east of you. This time I was thinking you might have had one too many beers when you were posting obs.... Kids are going to be devastated to wake up tomorrow to a pile of slop after being told 4-8".

Huge bust so far out here as well --- all we got was snow TV all morning, then sleet/rain for hours with occasional bursts of heavy snow.....nothing but an icy crust on the ground. I'm starting to think the 1"/hr rates from 3PM-8PM might not be happening after all..... That warm nose was brutal and deadly. Been a long time since we've had one bust this bad out here during the actual event -- LWX had us in WSW for 4-8", models showed 6-10" with none having less than 4".

dumping pretty good here, dime flakes, grass caved 33/31

Moderate steady snow, but flakes have been small so far. 33/27.

First flakes here -- light snow 34/26

35/26

Still off-and-on light flakes here; full rippage has not yet commenced. Hoping we get a solid beatdown out here! Now that we have Chill back, to ensure a proper forum-wide overperformance, I hereby invoke the power of the: THE FEBRUARY “SUPER SNOW” MOON February’s full Moon peaks on Tuesday morning, February 19 but will appear full the night before and after its peak to the casual stargazer. It will also be a so-called “supermoon,” which means the Moon is at its closest point in its orbit to Earth. In fact, the February’s full Moon is the nearest, largest, and brightest full Moon of the year! Technically, it’s the second of three supermoons to occur in 2019 (January, February, March).

First flakes! Blue Ridge mtns between Hillsboro and Berryville. #notvirga

34/9 - Blue Ridge mtns between Hillsboro and Berryville

BUMP!

Still snowing -- very light but still going. That makes 36 hrs since first flakes. Awesome overall storm for duration of falling snow including daytime. I think we'll wrap up with about 8.5" total. @Jebman - my 3 year old son apparently decided it was time to start his Jebwalk training as of tonight. The Mrs was giving him a bath while I went out on the front steps to measure the snow...next thing I know he pops out the front door, runs out into the yard, and opens his mouth to catch the nice big flakes coming down. Very cute.....and then I noticed the ONLY thing he had on was a pair of flip flops. Wasn't it @stormtracker who mentioned something about running in the streets nekkid if this storm verified? He's got to do better -- my 3yo been there done that.

Light snow started here - 32/18 WV Blue Ridge between Berryville and Purcellville

22/16 - WV Blue Ridge between Purcellville and Berryville

If you need to distract yourself from the pain (or support last-ditch weenie hopes) -- a fun read (plus interesting to note the level of uncertainty even 2-3 days out before that one): https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/19/model-live-blog-assessing-late-week-heavy-snow-threat/?utm_term=.443e2154967e

If you guys decide not to ban, I vote for storm mode again.....we couldn't even make it a few hours....SMH

LWX hedging further north than that; keeping us on the northern edge. For a little perspective here -- normally we'd be thrilled at the prospect of getting 2-4" this early in the season, and that would still be a solid outcome even if we have to watch SE jackpot.

You know if we were bullseye right now there'd be just as much worrying about north shift and all kinds of assertions about modeling not being a sure bet at this range, waiting for the rug to be pulled out sub-72 hrs, etc etc. FWIW, LWX still keeping east of Blue Ridge in yellow and west of Blue Ridge orange -- yeah it includes some southern areas but based on AFD as well, clearly they aren't writing this off yet either.