MountainGeek

Exactly -- I kept refreshing thinking maybe the site was messed up. Maybe the weenie LR thread sucked everyone in....

Arlington not McHenry I assume?

I hope the 5" lolli on the GFS verifies north - right on top of DT's house.

Weenie handbook also says GFS better with northern stream

Yeah but notice that the HP is basically in the same spot across runs - it's just a weaker HP each time. Shows how much this is going to depend on getting strong enough HP to hold on and could still easily go either way. Edit: GFS comes in with 1039 HP vs 1032 on the ICON

Not when you hit 50 on Monday

LWX went with high confidence this afternoon NW of 95

Yesssss -- right on schedule, come on up to where you belong!

He's in the emergency room -- tripped over the shut out line on the way to the fridge.

This is better for our chances than any NAMming we could get.

Does the old GFS just go away entirely when that happens? Sometimes it has been nice to have as a data point with its known biases. I've seen comments to the effect that the FV3 has a bias towards keeping heights lower than they should be, which can make it tend to favor snow. Last thing we need for the MA is more fantasy digital snow in the med/long range.

The shut up line -- does that run through Chuck's house?

Still sporting a good .3-.5" of ice on the trees.....never got above 33, was forecast to go to 38. Not looking forward to the wind -- going to be a mess if we can't dump the ice before it really kicks in. Interesting to note how the icing in this case was EXTREMELY elevation dependent....drove down the road a bit and just a 100' drop in elevation and there's very little ice on anything.

Not bad at this range - under 100 hrs and not playing Dr No. for once. I'd prefer a Euro hit over Icon and FV3 combined. You have precip maps?

Really hoping temps rise quickly so the rain can melt the ice before the wind kicks in....33 degrees with .3 to .5 of ice on the trees.

1" so far, 29 and SN

Interesting -- we're going to bust low out here, forecast was supposed to drop to 17 but it's 15 right now. NAM is wrong already from onset, it's showing temps 4-5 degrees warmer than it is right now. Not sure how much that is going to help later on, but certainly not a bad sign.

I'd say this could be considered an official NAMming...probably mostly mix/sleet/ice but would still be fun. ANYTHING other than plain rain!

After all the fretting --- watch you blow past climo with one storm and not even into the great pattern yet.

Or sleet --- wouldn't be a bad thing to get a nice thick glacier of snow and sleet topped with ice crust as a base for the upcoming epicness later in Feb. No snowflake shall be wasted!

I do think this has been somewhat of "it wants to snow" year during our limited windows of opportunity. Since Miller A's or even B's seem to be elusive, the weather is going to figure out how to get us a MECS anyway. Remember our best snow so far has come when you/Showme and/or PSU take a break/throw in the towel. Granted we haven't seen the promised epic looks materialize, which has been a letdown, but let's not forget the frustration of the past two years (reference PSU's epic meltdown/rant from last year)....we've been doing really well compared to that.

Yeah this one just doesn't seem to want to quit. Still going strong -- nice SN with decent flakes.

Agree -- 20:1 was intentionally weenieish.....but given the setup it it's likely a lot of us do better than 10:1 for whatever we can eke out, right?

Yeah I've noticed that several times. Sometimes the expected snowfall is MORE than the top 10% high end......guessing that it's just in between update cycles when that happens.

Yup -- cold/temps are not a problem for this event.