MountainGeek

Wouldn't be the first time that HP and blocking are overdone at this range and end up easing off as we get closer in time.

Yup although the NAM looks like it hangs on a few more hrs than the GFS. My understanding is that the known GFS cold bias mostly affects the med and long range, so maybe the NAM will be better at sniffing out the cold......hug the model that gives you what you want!

Could be just noise, but looks like we lose the 850s a smidge earlier on the 18z GFS.

Wouldn't we be better off strip-mining between Pittsburgh/Cumberland/Chambersburg and putting in another great lake? Keep the CAD when needed, plus we get legit lake-effect going on with those cold dry NW winds that we do so well around here. Agree that it's going to come down to the column and how long we can hang on.....do you think timing may help out as well? If we could get an early onset with a good juicy slug going before the sun hits that can't be a bad thing.

Check the accumulated positive snow depth change.....much less impressive. Verbatim most of the "snow" would be sleet or FZR....but IMO any form of frozen slop/mix is more interesting than just plain rain. Gotta hope we can keep "trending" colder as we get closer....

There's always extrapolation of the 3K NAM.....

Better than our chance of hitting the Dec 22 "storm".....I like it that we're getting something reasonably possible within the 72 hr window, and trends seem to be going the right way for once. It's pretty much a lock that it's going to get washed away regardless, so expectations can't be all that high.

You're always welcome up here on the mountain.

Maybe we can back into a light/modest event in under 72 hrs.....wouldn't be the first time. IIRC the "best" event of last winter for DC proper didn't look all that great right up until game time. Let's take a ride on the Baby Bump Thump Train!

Not good enough for @Ji...you trying to convince him to jump early?

Dec 9/10 last year right? But this time around hopefully we're not dealing with a brick wall of confluence.

Didn't we have a similar situation in 13-14 where people would fret over a crappy pattern in the LR and just around the corner, but the bad looks frequently fell apart once we got closer in time? Last year was the inverse, where the good looks stayed 10-15 days out most of the winter. Not saying this year will play out the same, just interesting.....

Not to mention that it seems equally likely that the strat can actually HURT us instead of helping - if I'm understanding him correctly, @Isotherm tags last year's much-anticipated SSW event as significantly contributing to the MJO hanging out in warm phases. https://www.lightinthestorm.com/page/3 Along that vein, I actually think this winter was too UNSTABLE in a number of ways. The MJO simply did not cease: constant propagation from amplified phase to phase, obviating any stable PNA or cold pattern from becoming locked in, compared to winters in which we stabilize in the colder MJO Nino phases. The negative 50mb QBO and thereafter the massive SSW only aided further to augment the incessant MJO signal.

Ummm...weather will do what weather wants to do? Given the GFS cold bias I'd like to see a couple other models get on board pretty soon.....otherwise cold rain is the better bet.

Absolutely ripping heavy fog here --- best rates of the day! I've never seen fog come down so hard.....

Yeah this one was really weird -- I can't remember the last time Charles Town did better than we did. Maybe the angle of the precip or the BR ended up as one of the main battleground areas with the warm nose bleeding through just enough west to ruin the event for us. Normally your reports are a pretty good benchmark for what's incoming our way during events since I'm on the ridge just about due east of you. This time I was thinking you might have had one too many beers when you were posting obs.... Kids are going to be devastated to wake up tomorrow to a pile of slop after being told 4-8".

Huge bust so far out here as well --- all we got was snow TV all morning, then sleet/rain for hours with occasional bursts of heavy snow.....nothing but an icy crust on the ground. I'm starting to think the 1"/hr rates from 3PM-8PM might not be happening after all..... That warm nose was brutal and deadly. Been a long time since we've had one bust this bad out here during the actual event -- LWX had us in WSW for 4-8", models showed 6-10" with none having less than 4".

dumping pretty good here, dime flakes, grass caved 33/31

Moderate steady snow, but flakes have been small so far. 33/27.

First flakes here -- light snow 34/26

35/26

BUMP!

Still snowing -- very light but still going. That makes 36 hrs since first flakes. Awesome overall storm for duration of falling snow including daytime. I think we'll wrap up with about 8.5" total. @Jebman - my 3 year old son apparently decided it was time to start his Jebwalk training as of tonight. The Mrs was giving him a bath while I went out on the front steps to measure the snow...next thing I know he pops out the front door, runs out into the yard, and opens his mouth to catch the nice big flakes coming down. Very cute.....and then I noticed the ONLY thing he had on was a pair of flip flops. Wasn't it @stormtracker who mentioned something about running in the streets nekkid if this storm verified? He's got to do better -- my 3yo been there done that.

Light snow started here - 32/18 WV Blue Ridge between Berryville and Purcellville

22/16 - WV Blue Ridge between Purcellville and Berryville