JoMo

Some big ice storms showing up on the 00z GFS and 00z Euro tonight.

9 hours ago, rockchalk83 said:

The storm system sliding down the Front Range of the Rockies had dumped 12-20" in a narrow band from west central Kansas into northeast Colorado. 

Euro & GFS show the possibility of snow showers in OK tomorrow into Thursday, not much accumulation though. 

Looking farther abroad, the models seem to be honing in on a busy period (anything would be considered "busy" after the winter we've had so far) beginning around next Monday. At least one storm shown on the main 12z model suite. 

Perhaps JoMo or some of the others can elaborate on the broader strokes behind the pattern change, but it looked to me that the MJO gets into phase 8 as the AO trends negative.

Yeah, looks like some chances for flurries/snow showers wed night/thurs and then maybe a couple of bigger storms the first week of Feb, location uncertain at this time though. After that, things get kind of questionable as the ensembles vary on what happens next.

6 hours ago, NWAflizzard said:

Its been hard watching these storms look like they may come together over our area but then wait until they cross into Tennessee and the southeast to blow up.  We have had some decent snows this winter but it just feels like we had the potential for so much more so far.

Unfortunately, that's pretty typical of La Nina. Every now and then one will come together far enough west though.

5 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

Can you educate me (us) on what’s missing for the 24th storm?  The wave digs deep into Baja and ejects east nicely but seems to be too open.   Do we just need it to be more closed off, negative tilt, etc?    
 

I also see the northern wave of energy that looks to phase as it moves into the northeast.  Does that need to happen faster? 
 

Thanks for teaching us, Yoda! 

Overall, just poor timing and energy in the northern stream kind of squashing everything. If you view the 500 MB vorticity image on the 18z GFS at 96 hours (18z Mon) you can see the closed system across the Texas Panhandle. You can also see another piece of energy across SW Montana. If we wanted a bigger storm, we'd want to see that piece of energy over Montana phase into the back of the system in the Texas PH. It doesn't. Also the northern stream kind of shreds the system. It's all about having the correct timing and pieces in place. 

The timing of the system on the 24-25th is interesting on the GFS. There's a system opening up and lifting out of the SW as energy digs into the backside. If there's a phase, there would be a much larger storm. 

EDIT: And the 12z Euro must have read my post........

Definitely going to have to watch N AR and S MO Wed night for a quick burst of wintry weather. Decent 850mb frontogenic forcing is going to try to force some mixed precip and a band of snowfall somewhere in that area. 

1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

Since there’s nothing much to talk about take a look at hr 84 of the 18z NAM.   Significant snow moving into Western KS and the OK panhandle. 

EDIT: No other models show this.  CMC has a minor something.  Other models are zilch.  

Not much model support, I think the 12z GFS individual ensemble members had 1-2 members that had something. Going to be tough for the models to key in on anything with the way the flow is. 

1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Wound up with just under 4" here in Monett... temps never did get above freezing, but did get to 31. Models were just off enough to keep us under that magic number. 

Looks like the pattern flips cold again -- hope we get a few more clippers that sneak up on us in the next couple of weeks. There seem to be some signals for that. 

-EPO looks to persist. In time, it may shift more to the NW, which would cause the eastern trough to retrograde back west. Tough to time any individual systems that may form though.

43 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Thanks Jomo, was wondering what was causing that. What did you wind up getting for totals? 

Not sure, it was all melty and wet but probably like 1-2" on the grassy/elevated areas. 

Temp rise is from the inverted trough. Temps should start falling again.

Back to a flizzard here. Cold, Snowy, with playoff football on TV. Beautiful day.

It's snowing lightly and there's a white dusting on everything except the roads which are just wet. 

27 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

May not matter in the long run, but the HRRR is a bit off with the timing of the colder air... it is actually too slow. Temps are falling faster by a couple of degrees out across E KS than modeled. This could have big implications "IF" this trend continues. 

The 02z is indeed colder here, from about 32 on the 00z to 29 now for much of the morning, but man, that inverted trough is a pain. 

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
827 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

ARZ002-011-151030-
/O.UPG.KTSA.WW.Y.0002.220115T0900Z-220116T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.W.0001.220115T0900Z-220115T2300Z/
Carroll-Madison-
Including the cities of Berryville, Eureka Springs,
and Huntsville
827 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Snow accumulations of 3
  to 5 inches....with 5 to 7 inches in the higher terrain.

* WHERE...Carroll and Madison Counties.

00z 3KM NAM pretty crazy over NW AR as well. 

And from 1.7" to 5.7" 6 hours later on the 00z NAM. Granted only 1-2" of that will probably actually stick, but it'll be nice seeing some snow coming down. From 10.4" to 1.7" to 5.7" in 12 hours. 

N AR just getting hammered on the 00z HRRR. 

13 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It's almost like somebody photshopped this map such that Joplin has rain. Weird one, huh?

 

Stupid inverted trough. 

Never change NAM, never change. From 10.4" to 1.7" in 6 hours. lol

52 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Thanks to you both! I am sticking with the HRRR. It looks better for us over here. 

lol at that 37 degrees and rain right over 3-4 counties in SW MO on the 18z HRRR. That little bubble of surface warm air sucks.

1 minute ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Where do you all see the RAP beyond hour 21? It is only out through 7 a.m. tomorrow on the sites I use. 

Pivotalweather but it's only specific hours that run longer than 21 hours. 

2 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

JoMo will like the 12z NAM!!!

Looks good, lock it in! Must be on the pivot point. Too bad it's the NAM. 

19 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

HRRR showed under an inch for much of NW AR and NE OK, it will need to be watched closely but myself and my colleague at the TV Station I chase with is considering it a fluke ATTM. This low still has a lot of potential still to overperform.

Yeah, I agree that it could end up overperforming. Strange things happen under strong upper lows. We'll have to see. 

11 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Will be interested to see what SGF does in the overnight package. 

Also wondering why St Louis was doing their afternoon updates. Wondering if COVID has hit the office.

Are Monett schools still in session? They closed a bunch around here today and tomorrow. 

25 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

A word of caution. Some of the data is showing a nose of warm air filtering northwestward from the I-40 corridor which could kill totals for much of NW AR and E OK. This could be our Lucy for those in this area. Shouldn't be an Ice Storm threat but could still be 33 and rain.

Yeah, it's the NAM anyway, not like it's going to be right, lol.