JoMo

3 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Think there's hope for tonight in my neck of the woods JoMo? We have about an inch, just very light off and on snow all day

Yeah, you should get a couple of inches at least. 

Just now, MUWX said:

It’s just a vastly different forecast than surrounding offices. I don’t see how places in SE Kansas who already have ~3” on the ground and as of 1, ICT was calling for an additional 5-8”, yet here, were only supposed to get 4-6” total? Maybe SGF is right with their forecast, but I still think it warrants an upgrade. I don’t think it’s a set rule that under certain circumstances you can’t upgrade for less than 6”. Given temps, wind chill, blowing snow, and at a minimum 4-6” totals, I don’t see any justification for not upgrading. 

Well, the heavier band is supposed to weaken with time. You can see it's much narrower than it was this morning. With that being said, Wichita has had to add some counties farther northward to the winter storm warning that they had this morning due to high snow ratios. Those ratios would theoretically be less towards us. 

10 minutes ago, MUWX said:

SGF is just trolling us at this point. The warnings now extend well north of us to the east and west, but SGF appears to not be willing to give in. 

Just looks like solid advisory criteria snow totals? We got between 1-2" this morning? Plus an additional 3-4" expected later.

SGF dropped my zone forecast to 2-4" 

The grass is almost covered, but it was already 3/4 covered by the last 2 days of flurries. 

1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

Does the 12z GFS try to wrap it as well?  Hard for me to tell.  

A bit, but it's not as impressive and it tracks farther south, but it tosses some light stuff back our way. 

Just now, Wx 24/7 said:

 

That's with the 2nd system added in I believe. 

Tulsa updated, chopped totals by about an inch, says SE OK and W AR expected to get the most. 

Just now, StormChazer said:

06Z EURO has it wrapping up like the NAM. This is 3PM MONDAY.

 

Yeah, if that happens, it snows in the area through much of tomorrow. 

Just now, schoeppeya said:

There isn't really a model depicting you getting anything before this afternoon. NWA is definitely going to overperform in the early part of the storm.

Last nights model runs were all good "thumps" here before things went downhill until the main system comes through this afternoon. Most of the precip came from that initial round, but that's underperformed so amounts will probably be adjusted downward unless something like the 12z NAM happens.

This initial band is really underperforming here, seems to have taken awhile to saturate. Here's to hoping the 12z NAM is correct, lol

So, about the 12z NAM... It's actually wrapping the system up. Probably just a NAM thing though.

Finally snowing. Flakes the size of raindrops, actually I think raindrops might be bigger. Wind blown and foggyish out there.

00z GFS still trending downward in the QPF department in OK.

Storm 2 looking good as well on the 00z NAM, at least the initial part of it.

Just now, The Waterboy said:

^ That’s a good thing, correct?  It also seems to be a tick SE again.  

Yes, and yeah it's def farther southeast. 

00z NAM manages to close the storm off at hour 28.

Not going to stay closed for long though.

RAP has been wanting to fire up a snowband around OKC by 03z. HRRR waits until 05z-06z. 

High confidence 4-6" forecast from Springfield.

Just now, KC Storm said:

Whats the Euro track for storm #2? I know it had been pretty far east. 

SE AR gets smashed by multiple waves. 

Globals all look pretty similar as far as QPF goes now. There's disagreement on where any banding sets up but they all have generally 0.3-0.5" in OK. SW MO gets around 0.3-0.4", NW AR gets 0.3-0.4"

5 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Looks fairly similar, SW MO and central OK doesn't get as much, but NW AR gets a little more(goes from about 6 to almost 8).

Tulsa down 1.5 inches. Interestingly, the Euro isn't sniffing out the heavy band that sets up tonight, like the short range models are, so that will make a difference if it happens.

 

Nah, Tulsa has gone down: 

12z Yesterday: 0.7"
00z last night: 0.5"
12z today: 0.3"

OKC: 

12z Yesterday: 0.8"
00z last night:  0.7"
12z today: 0.5"

Joplin went from 0.5" to 0.3"

From 0.4" to 0.3" at Moweatherguys's house.

Still trending downward on QPF on the Euro. 

12z UKMET also shifted SE up this way, which is good cause it had a relatively drier area in NW AR that is now located in central AR.

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Would say that is a fair assessment, although you could push the 10 inch range on high side 

I like to keep my expectations low so it has a better chance of overperforming. Plus, the continuation of the slow SE slide of the QPF is a worry.