JoMo

I watched the Netflix documentary on the Joplin tornado. Hearing some of the people describe the sky as being black and about the growl of the tornado reminded me of the experience and this thread. Hard to believe that was almost 14 years ago. 

On 2/21/2025 at 9:45 AM, yoda said:

We also had a poster on here have it narrowly missing his place... think a few streets over?

Me, and I'd say people here are mixed about it. Some people are really pissed that it will reopen old wounds and others can't wait to see it. 

8 hours ago, schoeppeya said:

Was definitely low ratio, fine sand snow here as well. 

Some of the lightest snow I've ever shoveled. There was just a lot of it. 

Looks like around 7" or so total here. Kind of hard to tell. 

15 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Dry air at 2,000 feet, and then at 12-14,000 ft killed the forecast in all likelihood. It didn't show up until you looked at the Euro runs yesterday and then the HRRR runs last night. Hidden in plain sight.

But in all reality, it is very hard to get a >10" snowstorm out in this part of the country. The numbers being put on the street by models and others yesterday were surreal. In some way, it felt like a bad troll job.  

The synoptic setup of having arctic air come in ~12 hours before the event will always cause issues because the initial cold air advection in those airmasses can be quite powerful. Having done some case study work on this, most big snowfalls in this part of the country have had 24-48 hours of cold in place before the snow begins. 

In addition, it's difficult to get big snowfall in this region without some type of storm system. There was nothing at the surface. The system at the 500 MB level was not impressive and the 700MB winds were from the SW. There was more of a system at the 850 MB level to help with lift at that level. So the entire system was based on the 700 MB and 850 MB response. There was always going to be more QPF squeezed out in the persistent bands of snow and where they set up which tied in with where the various fronts were. With that being said, the GFS/NAM are almost always too moist and generate too much QPF.  

2 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I am guessing we are around 4 inches. SGF seeing the radar and high res models today and still coming out at 2:00 and saying 8-10 more inches was on the way is so on brand for SGF.

Well, there was a 10%-80% chance of it happening. The same Springfield that took major heat for missing several tornado warnings recently as well. 

Currently in a heavy band that's near whiteout at times due to the wind. I expected early on that in this type of setup that the area that got into the heavier bands of snow would end up with a lot more than areas outside the banding. I'd say it looks like maybe 5" out there but can't really tell due to the drifting. I know Doug Heady said 3.5" earlier before this band started. 

Been snowing here. It's the same small type of flakes that happened during the blizzard in 2011. Blowing around everywhere. About down to 12 degrees. 

Radar returns increasing and it looks like the main show is about to begin. Got a dusting from the early morning stuff. Shooting for 8" or so here, probably more down across northern Arkansas. 

2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Notable reduction in QPF on a lot of the 0z models right after the increase on the 18z runs

700 MB winds veer quicker, kind of like what the Euro has been showing. 

Darn, back down to 5-14" with 10" expected here. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=SGF

18z ICON shifted south a bit but it still has that double band thing going with increased QPF in our area. 

4 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said:

What is the Kuchera initializing snow ratios at on the NAM?

15:1 down near Neosho when the snow starts, increasing to 16-17:1 and ending at 18:1

18z NAM is more juicy. 4.2" of 10:1 on the 12z and 10.1" on the 18z at Tulsa. Interesting band of snow popping up before midnight tonight as well along the KS/MO border. And it's colder. 

The 18z HRRR is shifting farther south again with NE OK being the main target area instead of SE KS. 

Been interesting watching the WPC page showing the expected snow amounts increase upwards over the last few hours. Back to 7-14" range with 12" expected in Joplin. 2 hours ago it was like 5-13" with 10" expected. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=SGF

EDIT: Updated again. 6-15" with 12" expected. 

00z Euro is going to be quicker with the system and the 700 MB winds veer west quicker so less precip. 

8 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Hard to draw up a better run than that GFS run for southern Missouri this close to the start of an event 

Yeah, I doubt the heavy band parks over Joplin like that, but that's a dream run. 

00z GFS is a smidge farther south and a bit slower. I'm starting to think this may actually happen now. 

The 00z ICON ended up farther south as well. 00z RDPS moved slightly south. 

3 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Yeah but I’m not buying that huge area of freezing rain with a nearly stationary boundary.

 

NAM is starting to come in and already looking like that sleet line is further south. That’s good news!

Yeah the 00z NAM is going to be farther south and maybe a bit slower. 

Good to see the 00z HRRR pushed the Arctic front farther south compared to the 18z. 

And the 18z GFS shifted back south a tiny bit so that's good. 

1 hour ago, MUWX said:

Springfield going with a warning this early is a little surprising 

It is a bit early, but 6-10" with 14" in snow bands seems reasonable although their southern counties could bust if there's movement north of the heaviest snow. 

EDIT: 18z NAM continues the slow creep northward with the heaviest amounts. 

It's wild seeing almost 12-24" of snow over your house and it's for one event that isn't 360 hours out.