JoMo

Snow Squall warning for here. Can't remember the last time I saw one. 

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* At 530 PM CDT, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line
extending from near Lamar to near Carthage to 6 miles northeast of
Seneca, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Intense bursts of heavy snow. Gusty winds leading to
blowing snow and rapidly falling visibility. Wind gusts
greater than 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar and webcams.

Can't believe it's been 15 years since the Blizzard of 2011. 

Ended up with around 5-6" 

It's been really coming down. It's a very fine snow but it's pouring and stacking up quickly. 

EDIT: Looks like maybe 4-5" at 4:45 AM. An additional 3-4" is expected. 

The clown maps are almost always going to be wrong. They are fun to look at but I can't recall the last time they've been right. I was more shocked at how wrong the 10:1 maps have been/continue to be. I was expecting 6" from the start but I'm not even sure that's going to happen now. This was always going to be a system with heavier bands of snow and an area of lighter snow outside of the bands, but the QPF was overdone outside of the expected bands. 

10 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Just a really bad forecast from SGF and most local Mets, it appears. Too early to call it a bust but SGF has reduced their expected totals in not insignificant way already. 

Really bad modeling by pretty much all the models. They were definitely producing too much QPF. I still think there's a 25%-75% chance they verify though! Ah probability forecasting, can't be wrong!

That second band has a lot of work to do to reach the 6" mark for a lot of the Springfield CWA. I have doubts. 

Weather is so strange sometimes. This is IMBY

2.3" of 10:1 on the 18z NAM with first system... On the 12z NAM it was 6.7"

Somehow ended up with 9.3" of 10:1 on 18z NAM with both systems. On the 12z NAM it was 11". 

Not too bad despite "losing" 4.4" with the first system not hitting.

15.5 Kuchera on 18z NAM and 15.4 Kuchera on 12z NAM so gained 0.1 somehow. 

6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I am just going to keep telling myself that models no longer matter because these high res models are really under whelming. 

I think 2nd system might save it. 18z NAM is ejecting it out farther west. 18z HRRR was pretty robust as well. 

The low level dry air really eating the precip as it enters into MO later tonight. Also 18z NAM going farther south with the precip so far. 

I noticed Springfield changed the warning at about 10 AM to drop amounts to 6-13" when it was previously 8-13" earlier this morning. 

17 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

My ONLY concern right now so far, is the HRRR doesn't seem to be very gung-ho on this with amounts. If you aren't in the intense band, it really lowers numbers. at least in the first wave. Will await the 18Z.

I'm hoping this is the HRRR bias of concentrating on frontal interactions so it's kind of missing the lift farther north of the most intense interaction. 

3 minutes ago, ouamber said:

What liquid ratio does a Kuchera use? Is it 15-1 or 20-1?

 

Depends on how cold the lower atmosphere profile is. Most models have the calculations built in, but it does sometimes overestimate. 

17 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Its probably too late in the game to really be looking into global models, but it is interesting to me that the UKMET has pretty much completely folded and now has a solution very similar to the GFS. Last night the UKMet had .5" all the way to KC and now it barely gets it to I44. Canadian is pretty similar. It wasnt as far north as the UKMet initially, but they are both settling on I-44 being the cut off. HRRR is even drier, first round might be a major flop in SW MO.

I think the Canadian was the first one with the I-44 south look and has also had lesser amounts days ago. 

Looks like the 00z Euro is going to end up farther south with the WAA precip so far. Overall bit more of a shift south but still good amounts. 

18 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

That's the million dollar question. I wonder if @andyhbor @JoMowould be able to shed some light on this? 

I'm just along for the ride. It's just been fun having something to track. Models have their biases. In this type of situation though, you'll usually have steadier snow from persistent lift and then you'll have bands of snow with heavier amounts depending on where the various boundaries set up. For the WAA snows, if you look at the 850 MB and 700 MB temp advection maps you can see where the heavier snow sets up north of the strongest advection. It goes absolutely crazy on the NAM so that's probably why the higher amounts. The GFS/GDPS has this setup farther south and it isn't as strong. The vertical velocity will show the areas with persistent lift.

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Borderline scary nam run for NE OK and SW MO. 

Only 23" of snow here and 25" in Springfield. NAM being the NAM. 

18z Euro AIFS is pretty similar on where the heaviest band of snow is from the 12z. Overall there is a bit of a compaction on the northern side (less QPF) of the system as a whole. Not sure if this means more members were farther south or just drier though. 

18z ICON and RDPS still look good so it might just be the NAM doing it's NAM thing. That one is a real wildcard. 

10 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Just north of that line is going to get hammered from wave 1, with another substantial wave to go. Is someone really going to see 20" out of this? 

Some 20-22" Kuchera amounts, Springfield down to Benton county, AR. 

 1:32 PM Official forecast hazardous outlook graphic shows 7-14" with areas of 8-15" in nearly every part of SGF's territory. Now time for the 18z NAM to screw it up somehow. 

EDIT: 18z NAM going to the first round a bit farther north again due to the strong WAA with sleet/mixing becoming an issue in northern Arkansas and Oklahoma. 

12z Euro is pushing the 700 MB warm nose farther north up into most of Arkansas this run. Excellent run for Tulsa and much of OK this run.

12 Euro AIFS isn't too different from the 00z run. Maybe just a hair farther north with highest snow precip amounts. 

Time for another wild run of the 12z NAM. Round 1 has a strong WAA push that generates a lot of precip and it's slower to exit, making some areas of extreme NW AR and NE OK have 12" of snow with just the first round. Southern MO, NW AR, NE OK all get over a foot this run. 

Springfield going with a 12:1 to 14:1 SLR. Also, that's quite a range there fellas, 

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Thus, the message is largely to
expect at least 2-4 inches, but prepare for upwards of 10-12+
inches.

00z ECMWF AI Ensemble ended up a bit farther north with snow precip max in NW AR.