JoMo

11 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

Winter Storm Warning has been extended down to Sedgwick County including wichita. 2-4" with wind gusts over 50mph at times in the morning. Schools cancelling quickly now. 

Guess it's not coming down heavy enough for a Blizzard warning?

Dramatically different D10+ look on the GFS compared to the 12z and 18z for sure. That's one frigid upper low playing traffic cop to our north.

One little piece of energy to the north is screwing up the Friday storm until it gets mostly to our east. 

18z ICON/GFS say Friday system may get interesting again if it continues showing more of a neg tilt again.

34 degrees and rain still sucks even when you are expecting it. Sun-Tues system still looks somewhat interesting, should be some high ratios with that snow for some. 

1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

I’m sad. But I’ll never learn.

ONTO THE NEXT ONE! SUN-TUES next week.

Lucy getting the football ready again......

18z GFS Friday system gets screwed up by a lead wave on Thurs. 

2 minutes ago, MUWX said:

My goodness. The Friday storm is simply incredible…. Can’t wait for the north trend. 

See the 00z GEM for the north trend, lol.. Crazy differences after that between the GEM/GFS. 

Just gonna be shoveling my 20" of digital snow or my 30" of Kuchera digital snow over the next 10 days... until the next run. 

Tuesday system going farther north on the 18z GFS. Friday system still looks good, but we aren't 24 hours away from it yet, so it'll probably end up in Iowa or something by the time we get to Fri.

12z Euro is coming in different with the Friday system due to upstream developments. Not nearly as big of a deal this run due to separation of systems and not really any development of the southern system. Tues system was a bit farther north.

12 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I physically can’t help myself. No matter how many times I’m let down, I’m like an addict needing their next fix.

Because eventually it’ll pan out, and that feeling of hype and it coming to fruition will be unmatched.

 

That being said, the GFS is our champion this afternoon.

 

The Canadian is out to lunch.

I remember those days. The sleepless nights because the next model run is just a few hours away. The excitement and anticipation and the buildup of the run, and then the agony of defeat when the model showed the storm going to the north, but wait....... the next model run is just a few hours away, and it'll be different this time..........

58 minutes ago, MUWX said:

It’s always the next system that’s going to be the one. Not getting my hopes up for Friday. 

I'm kind of just happy there are at least threats. I don't get my hopes up until 24 hours before though, lol

Such a beast of a storm on the 00z Euro for the Friday storm. That one def needs watched with the upstream energy now trying to dive more into it. 

Looks like a big spread between the GEM and GFS towards the Friday system and after.

That Friday system still looks like a beast. 

00z NAM with the more northern turn this run. Will other models follow? Tune in next run....

20 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Tulsa playing it conservative as usual. lol I guess they really don't trust the models.

Nah, they just don't know where the track/precip will be. They did say this in the AFD today:

Quote

This forecast period should be followed
closely as the strength of the system would allow for
overachieving elements and the track and corresponding precip
footprint has yet to be totally agreed upon.

I like the difference between the 00z Euro and 12z Euro for 18z Sun the 14th though. 00z run had a balmy 46 degrees in Tulsa... 12z run has it at 11 degrees. 

The Friday system is beastly on the 12z Euro and farther south.

Tues system is just a smidge slow at tilting at the right time. The models have it deeping though as it passes. Looks like the GEM is farthest south . 

In addition to the Tues system, it looks like we will probably also have a Friday system. From there the models diverge a bit. 

Lots of high latitude blocking and -EPO in the latter stages of the 00z GFS.... brrrrr cold

It's fun watching the Tues storm but man it's going to be a nail biter. 

32 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Local weather guy says hurricane hunters are flying into the storm this afternoon and sampling it. Will be interesting to see what that data does to models 

Which storm? Been a long time since we've said that.