JoMo

6 hours ago, rockchalk83 said:

Definitely looks like we **could** have a decent event here in SC Kansas. Local NWS mentioning a cooling trend in the temp profile and models seem to be latching onto a weak TROWAL signature. We'll see. 

Yeah, but I worry about how fast the system falls apart with those marginal temps. Someone might get a good burst of snow but the farther east you go, the less of a chance that is. 

21 minutes ago, MUWX said:

That would likely be close to blizzard conditions for SW MO. Temps are very borderline though. 

BRB shoveling my 32" of digital snow through Jan 15th. 

Looks like some snow or snow to rain for some folks on Friday morning with a weakening system and a bigger system on Monday-Tues (8th and 9th) which is still uncertain. And probably more systems after that to watch.

1 hour ago, rockchalk83 said:

Once we get past the 4th of January, the pattern looks to get more active. Can’t wait to see how this develops.

Yeah, Jan looks really active. Just need spacing for moisture return and the storms to be a bit farther south. 

Looks like some snow showers will be possible on Christmas for some areas, probably KS most likely under the upper low. And then things might get more interesting as we head into the first week or two of Jan as it looks like the ridging over Canada starts re-developing WNW towards Alaska which should allow more cold air to get involved with an active storm track across the southern US. 

4 hours ago, stormdragonwx said:

I will be curious to see if the Southern Plains east of I-35 into the Ozarks will see a decent winter system before the year is out. There's a chance hinted at on the models around the 11th or so but that's way up in the air. I'll admit last winter kinda spoiled me after years of drought when it comes to snow. lol

Yeah the Euro shows promise every now and then for that system around the 10th-11th, but still a long way away and everything has to come together just right.

Enjoying watching the snow on Kansas State game. 

Models are looking interesting after Thanksgiving for at least some cold. 

5 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I've been reading all the back and forth for the last few months trying to improve my knowledge on seasonal forecasting matters. Thank you for all the great work everyone!

I moved to the Tulsa area about a year ago. I'd been in the west before that my whole life. My question is, do any of you have any thoughts on how the ideal combination of indices for winter weather varies between here and the east coast? It seems obvious to me that there is a lot of overlap, but that my best snow patterns aren't going to be the same ones where the northeast scores big. Anyway, let me know if you have any thoughts. Thanks 

I did research on this area many years ago, Tulsa is a bit farther SW but in the same general area. I found this paper helpful at the time. https://mospace.umsystem.edu/xmlui/handle/10355/2462

Quote

An examination of the interannual variability of SWMO snowfalls revealed that ENSO neutral winters produced more snowfall events than the El Nino or La Nina snowfall seasons, but the result was not statistically significant. When winter seasons were further stratified by phase of the PDO, the interannual variability of snowfall events associated with ENSO changed when comparing the earlier years in the data set with the later years. During the PDO2 period (1949- 1976, and 1999 - 2003), El Nino winters produced more snowfalls. La Nina and neutral winters produced more snowfalls during the later period (PDO1 - 1977-1999), and this result was significant at the 90% confidence interval when testing the means.

New thread for this year: 

El Nino winter coming up. I've seen mentions of 2009/2010 (Good winter), 2002/2003 (Great winter) and 2015/2016 (Poor winter) around the internet. Hopefully the El Nino will give us more moisture and hopefully it will be in the form of snow.

Powerful storm system around March 3rd showing up on all the major models. We'll have to see what happens with that. 

1 hour ago, ouamber said:

The lightning and thundering sleet in Tulsa is incredible right now! Very heavy! Roads are covered at my location just a mile south of I-44 and Lewis.

Thunder sleet and freezing rain is pretty wild. I remember it doing that here a few years ago with a temp of like 12 degrees out. 

Freezing drizzle making roads pretty bad out there. 

1 hour ago, MUWX said:

Starting to see a lot of chatter on social media about next week already 

The Euro with the ice?

32 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

I can only imagine how much this would have been if it was much colder! We hovered right around 32-33 the whole time. Same here though, heavy slushy snow. 

Yep, everything has to come together just right for this area and there was just enough cold air around. The really cold stuff might be here by next Mon or so and we'll see what happens. 

14 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Not sure what they were predicting for here but sounds right. I know you said earlier it finally started snowing up there, how much do u have now? 

Still coming down here, close to 7" now imby

Probably like 1/2-3/4" of melty slush. 

So the GGEM/Euro did the best while the NAM was just awful like usual, right?

And it's finally snowing here.

1 minute ago, stormdragonwx said:

There's talk of a dreaded Dry Slot now... that could kill our overall totals here in AR too. https://twitter.com/NWSLittleRock/status/1618057323569713153?s=20

Dry slot should pass to your south it looks like. Area to the N and W of the dry slot usually gets heavy snow. 

Mesoscale Discussion for area of heavy snow: https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/2301250009.acus11.html

Yeah, AR/MO still look good for the most part KS/N OK will have to rely on getting what they can from the backside of the system. 

30 minutes ago, ouamber said:

I don't know what happened, but Mike Collier just did a live Facebook and stated Tulsa will be lucky to get an inch. We were in a donut hole, literally. I haven't seen a flake today. I guess the storm tracked too far south??  Any ideas what happened besides being too warm? Was is dry air?

Looks like you'll still get snow, but farther south storm track and precip rates that were unable to cause a changeover with the first part of the system. 

Springfield:

Quote

During the overnight hours, a second heavy band of snow will
develop behind the surface low. This band is forecast to track
along and just south of I-44 as well, producing at least 1 inch
per hour snowfall rates between roughly 1am and 4am. A peek at
forecast soundings highlights some weak instability aloft,
generally across northern Arkansas however it does bleed into far
southern Missouri, therefore some rumbles of thunder may occur,
further enhancing snowfall rates.

6 minutes ago, JMT417 said:

Upgrade to WSW for Joplin

4-6" with up to 8". 06z NAM models still held farther north.