JoMo

22 hours ago, NWAflizzard said:

GFS seems to be lost with the pattern over the next few weeks.  Big swings run to run.  Have seen on some of the other forums that the update may have thrown it off even more than usual.

They are all having big run to run changes due to the pattern change. Ensembles still have that -EPO pattern going forward and that's going to bring the cold. Individual storms will show up as we get closer. 

Still looking good moving forward. Ensembles are a beaut. Knock on wood that nothing changes. 

1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said:

I'd totally take a repeat of '09. I believe that was the last time TSA issued a Blizzard Warning.

You mean 2011? 

2 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I'll take the last 60 hours of the 12Z GFS please.

yeah, the -EPO this run is crazy. The ensembles have supported a look like that. Looks interesting for sure. 

1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said:

Still too far out to take serious but things might get interesting as we get around the 20th.

Models are going to be interesting as the try to digest the strength/position of that block. With that being said, they are likely to be all over the place each run. Hopefully we'll get at least one storm tracking to our south giving us snow during the next couple of weeks. Tonight's 00z GFS run dumped 30" in Kansas and NW OK. 

Doug Heady's winter forecast from last night. https://youtu.be/9GMRco39udI

Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. 00z GFS doing the sharp cold front/ice storm thing next weekend but it looks like it's on it's own. 

Man, that Thanksgiving storm has been all over the place. Such large run to run changes with the models over the past week. They finally decided on the cutoff solution. It's going to get real interesting as we get into early Dec as there's a lot of Arctic air at the surface sitting to our north, if it comes farther south than forecast than we could be in for some icy conditions with a SW flow aloft. 

Still watching for some flurries tomorrow with the next cold front (mostly KS/MO). Probably going to warm back up after this weekend though. Still watching a storm system around Thanksgiving but the models have been all over the place with that and subsequently the long range is in question as well. 

1 hour ago, RocketWX said:

Well overall kind of underwhelming, considering folks near by received a very pretty 1-2in of snow. At my place specifically, I managed to pick up a trace and did see flakes fall for the first time. For the 2nd time in 3 years it's snowed before Thanksgiving. I'm not hating the pattern thus far this fall, as there as there are signs we're putting a dent in the drought but a long way to go. We'll see if it continues. Don't see any significant precip as of now through Thanksgiving, but temps look to stay well below normal for the next week.  

Models have had a signal for some type of storm system around Thanksgiving. 12z GFS/GEM going with a cutoff of sorts developing...somewhere. 00z Euro was more progressive with it. 

Pretty neat rain/snow mix tonight here. Made the rooftops white. Good night for some hot chocolate. 

Yeah the Mon night system was always kind of marginal, especially with temps. Surface low in the Gulf doesn't really help plus the system is weakening and there's a lack of low level forcing. It's just Mid-Nov though, which is the good thing. Not even the coldest time of the year yet. 

8 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said:

NWS STL has a sense of humor.

Some folks in our area are waking up to a winter wonderland this morning, with as much as 6" of snow on the ground. We're just as surprised as many of you are, so we wanted to let you know what happened. Boiling it down: 1) the snow was further north than expected, 2) the snow was much more intense than expected, 3) the warm ground was not enough to overcome the heavy snowfall rates.

I remember that happening a couple times as a kid. Waking up on a Spring morning with 4+" of heavy wet snow stuck to everything and not having to go to school, when the night before the only thing that was called for was a rain/snow mix. Of course there are other times I remember snow being called for and waking up to rain and 34 degrees before as well. 

Some snow showers possible tonight across mainly southern MO and N Arkansas and parts of E OK. Monday night another chance but temps might be kind of marginal. Then we'll see what happens after that. 

Eh, it's still almost a week away, temps look marginal. Gonna depend on what happens with 3 different pieces of energy and how they interact with each other. I'll take snow anytime we can get it, but especially before Christmas. 

4 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Yes please.

Complex situation with 3 different pieces of energy coming into play it looks like. Interesting to see though. Pre-Thanksgiving snow would be nice. 

Started new thread for this year:

New thread. Fantasy snow showing up on the models. 

00z GFS/Canadian are interesting around next Mon/Tues. Still a long way away, but the cold is coming!

From drought to flood on the 12z GFS. 10-13" of rain for some parts of the area being shown. 

The storm coming through Mon night/Tues takes a great track for snow, if it was only winter.

On 10/9/2022 at 10:46 AM, Doramo said:

Looks like La Nina again this 2022/2023 winter for an rare threepeat . La Nina not expected to go to a neutral phase until about February . So what does that mean for us this winter . Will it be near the same as last years 21/22 winter or what? Here in southwest Mo we had some nice snows of which I would like .  Just curious?

I hope we get something this winter. Finally got rain here, everything is a nice crispy brown from the drought. 

Springfield going 2-5" in my neck of the woods. Probably closer to 2-3" or so. Sun angle and temps won't be that great for accumulating snow. 

We may have something to watch in the neighborhood in about 5 days or so? We'll see. 

Getting light snow here now, kind of expect that to persist despite nothing being shown on radar.