JoMo

Small shift south on the 06z HRRR as well. 

43 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Then I’ll take this one please!!! 

Yeah, I'm hugging the 03z RAP currently. 

2 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Am I allowed to ignore it because I don't like it?

Always. Only hug the models you want to be correct. First rule of model watching.

2 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said:

I definitely think MO and AR cash in because of the majority of this snow falling in the overnight hours. The models are really going gung-ho. I am trying to temper my expectations, but man... if Lucy moves the football at this point...

Also, don't look now, but next week looks like the arctic air is coming back... good signal for some light icing Sunday, too. One system at a time, I know...

Yeah there's a nice -EPO that sets up in a few days, should bring the Arctic back south. 

00z GFS moved a bit back south. 

5 minutes ago, JMT417 said:

Joplin getting a Winter Weather Advisory Springfield and Branson a Winter Storm Warning 

Advisory for 2-4" up to 6" here.... and 5-10" up to 12" for the Winter Storm Warning.

2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

18z NAM shifted NW a tad.  

Indeed it did, the 700 MB low tracks a bit farther north

00z NAM shifted a bit back north.

52 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

00z GEFS a bit disorganized on agreement tonight. Will have to see if this trends after tonight now that the system is onshore. I suspect its a bad run.

It's on shore. The temp profiles are messing with the snowfall output since temps are marginal. 

Slight NW shift on the 00z GFS.

3 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Jomo, I know this is off topic compared to what's going on currently, but do we want the euro depiction of the mjo moving forward instead of the gefs, which has the mjo into phase 4? I believe 4-6 are warm phases for sure

I haven't really been following the long range lately as it hasn't seemed to make a difference and will change. With that being said the 18z GEFS looked decent in the long run and had a nice -EPO coming up which dumped cold. 

00z NAM gonna nudge back north by a bit. 

Speaking of the Chiefs game. Whew, that was close at the end. 

12z GFS is nice. Man, if only this was 48 hours from happening. 

Track of the system, when it pivots and temps will be really crucial, but it pretty much always is in this area. 

9 hours ago, StormChazer said:

Maybe another quick burst of snow Sunday morning? Hoping something comes of the 25th.

Yeah, the 2nd system seems more interesting around the 24-25th. 

8 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said:

At hour 8,982,336 there is a massive blizzard for the area... some 60+" of snow. I know it is that far out, but that's when winter will really start. 

(This is sarcasm... merely frustrated at how uneventful this winter has been. It is really going to have to be backloaded to live up to its hype.)

We've cashed in on like 200" of snow so far on the models. 12z Euro looked great. Too bad it'll change.

-EPO starts building in 9-10 days and the more sustained cold will come after that. 

The end of Jan into Feb should be a return of winter per typical La Nina. 

Chance for a snow or mix in some places Monday morning and then the warmup begins. Doesn't look like any more snow chances until sometime next year.  

Around 2-3 here, probably 2.25 or 2.5 or so.

1 degree with a moderate to heavy blowing snow is pretty darn cool. 

Quote

* At 919 AM CST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line
extending from 3 miles south of Howard to 7 miles north of Grainola
to 4 miles west of Geuda Springs, moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in snow and blowing snow. Wind
gusts greater than 35 mph.

Crazy. 

Snow is really picking up now. 

Springfield's morning AFD mentioned ratios of 16-17 to 1.