JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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Light snow in Joplin. Snow before Christmas is on the wishlist every year. Tues system will provide some more snow in some places, and then all eyes on Christmas Eve.
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Snowchasers streaming from places like Tulsa and Woodward. https://livestormchasing.com/map
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The dreaded "sleet" word...
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Winter Storm Watch issued for NW Arkansas now. 3-6"
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The initial burst will be very heavy from the looks of the modeling. Convective in nature as well.
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Looks like 3-5" falls out of the sky. No idea about accumulation due to temps.
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12z Euro was a smidge more dry and a smidge farther south.
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Other than the NW part? They had one on like Dec 1st. And probably one back in Oct for the freezing rain storm.
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Majority of 12z models so far seem to be targeting NE OK, NW AR for the heaviest amounts. Canadian is a little more meh. Tues system still has considerable spread. Good seeing the Christmas Eve system trying to show back up on the 12z GFS.
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The Tues system has very broad lift over much of the central US for a longer period and is colder. We'll have to see how that one comes together as well.
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Small southward shift in the 12z NAM this morning and a little drier overall. Still a wallop for NE OK and NW AR.
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Still a pretty considerable spread on the Tuesday system though.
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Looks like it. Looks a bit cooler as well.
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Interesting, but I don't really trust the NAM.
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And you wind up with weird snowfall maps like this....
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I'm really worried about temps. 850's came in a bit warmer. Also surface temps are going to hang above freezing, there appears to be a cold enough layer at 925 MB though, assuming the 850's stay below freezing (down there) This is also based on the lift being shown on the NAM panning out. Temps drop a few degrees under the precip shield. If the precip shield is weaker due to not as much lift/dynamic cooling than the model anticipates then it could wind up as more of a rain/snow mix, and maybe rain.
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Lot of snow falling out of the sky on the 12z NAM. E OK and NW AR are the big winners.
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haha, well just remember that the snow in Nebraska tomorrow was supposed to be in E KS and it crept north. Of course, knowing our luck, the next round will creep south.
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Tulsa AFD this afternoon:
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Christmas Eve though...
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According to the 12z GFS....Surface is very marginal. 925 MB temps are around 0 to -2 C with surface temps hovering around freezing or just above. 850's and 700's look good so no mixed precip issues it looks like. The 12z NAM is colder though with 925 MB temps around -3 or -4 C. So looks like we're going to depend on some 'dynamic cooling' from the lift and precip rates to cool the surface to around freezing.
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Quantity over Quality? I just want snow, doesn't have to stick, just some good mood snow before Christmas, but the marginal temp profile worries me, plus the possibility that it could always trend north as time goes on due to lack of cold air.
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Bit of a shift north on the 12z GFS. Temps are going to be pretty marginal but snow falling is snow falling, especially in the daytime. Edit: Another system with spotty chances for rain/snow on Tues keeps showing up as well.
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Where it does snow with the Sunday system, the surface temps are near/above freezing so there would be minimal impact unless it came down at a heavy enough rate.
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Euro has a bunch of snow in KS this run. All except for the far SE corner that is. Model changes all the time.
