JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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It will probably warm up, but Christmas is still a little uncertain. The timing of fronts and systems aren't really staying consistent and the models aren't agreeing at this point.
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The Tues system is actually a decent system as it comes out of the Rockies, which provides snow for the western half of OK. The problem is that it's weakening and opening up as energy digs into the backside of it. Same system should give portions of the northeast a nice snowfall.
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Tues doesn't look like too much. The system looks moisture starved on all the models so outside of the western half of OK and portions of KS, it doesn't look like more than light snow.
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Beautiful snowfall, no accumulation due to warm temps and low rate here.
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Winter Storm Warning for Tulsa and areas in the band.
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Light snow in Joplin. Snow before Christmas is on the wishlist every year. Tues system will provide some more snow in some places, and then all eyes on Christmas Eve.
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Snowchasers streaming from places like Tulsa and Woodward. https://livestormchasing.com/map
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The dreaded "sleet" word...
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Winter Storm Watch issued for NW Arkansas now. 3-6"
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The initial burst will be very heavy from the looks of the modeling. Convective in nature as well.
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Looks like 3-5" falls out of the sky. No idea about accumulation due to temps.
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12z Euro was a smidge more dry and a smidge farther south.
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Other than the NW part? They had one on like Dec 1st. And probably one back in Oct for the freezing rain storm.
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Majority of 12z models so far seem to be targeting NE OK, NW AR for the heaviest amounts. Canadian is a little more meh. Tues system still has considerable spread. Good seeing the Christmas Eve system trying to show back up on the 12z GFS.
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The Tues system has very broad lift over much of the central US for a longer period and is colder. We'll have to see how that one comes together as well.
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Small southward shift in the 12z NAM this morning and a little drier overall. Still a wallop for NE OK and NW AR.
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Still a pretty considerable spread on the Tuesday system though.
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Looks like it. Looks a bit cooler as well.
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Interesting, but I don't really trust the NAM.
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And you wind up with weird snowfall maps like this....
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I'm really worried about temps. 850's came in a bit warmer. Also surface temps are going to hang above freezing, there appears to be a cold enough layer at 925 MB though, assuming the 850's stay below freezing (down there) This is also based on the lift being shown on the NAM panning out. Temps drop a few degrees under the precip shield. If the precip shield is weaker due to not as much lift/dynamic cooling than the model anticipates then it could wind up as more of a rain/snow mix, and maybe rain.
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Lot of snow falling out of the sky on the 12z NAM. E OK and NW AR are the big winners.
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haha, well just remember that the snow in Nebraska tomorrow was supposed to be in E KS and it crept north. Of course, knowing our luck, the next round will creep south.
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Tulsa AFD this afternoon:
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Christmas Eve though...
