snowmagnet

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Yes please!  DC pummeled.

I thought I was in the MLK thread and my heart skipped a beat! I thought the GFS was coming back to save us tomorrow! 
 

Oh well. Just a week away! Nothing can change. 

3 minutes ago, SoCoSailer said:

 

FWIW The long range Hrrrr holds onto hope for the warm nose not being as strong as modeled by the NAM

I’ll hug this until Monday. 

I want to clarify something.  I know that the snow looks to be changing to more sleet and warm up to rain west of DC, but the ground will still be considerably cold for this.  How significant will the sleet and freezing rain be in the I-95 corridor?

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

he’s running the DT model at this point - no OP guidance from the last day shows quite what he’s showing — those upper end totals are gonna be tough to hit. Not to say it’s wrong and I admire the boldness I suppose, but…

He hasn't done well  at all this year.  Way under, and way over for the last 2 storms, but he used to do really well with his maps.  Back in 2013-2015, he was often forecasting way higher than anyone else and was pretty accurate most of the time.  

Here's to hoping he might have a magical DT model and get this one right!

12 minutes ago, Jebman said:

What I wouldnt give to wake up on Monday morning, crack open the Mid Atlantic sub and find very happy snow weenies flying happily all over! The storm missed wide right and DC gets 20 inches of pow, as well as much of the forum!

That’s always my hope with these storms. It’s happened before!  

Anything on the Euro for next week?

10 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Yeppers...

Lock it!  This may get us through the weekend. 

24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. It is strengthening that backside potential on each run. But the hopes of an all snow bomb to the west is pretty much over. I won't be making fun of the NAM again anytime soon. It was the first to pick out the realistic amount of ice out this way.

The storm hasn’t happened yet. We can’t determine which was right until the end. 

17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

First Call Map 

I'll have more on my current thoughts later today when I get a chance. I also want to see any shifts in the ULL track and timing of vertical stack with the SLP. Some changes may occur in the next 24-36 hrs for my forecast, but zones should stay relatively the same. 

Can we move that pink about 60 miles east?  

Is the GFS showing a changeover to sleet/rain and back to snow with deformation? 

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks similar to the Euro maps you posted earlier… at least for mby. 

What is approximate start time on Euro for south and western DC burbs? 

31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm rather stunned by the consistency of outcomes from a few days ago, especially for something with so many moving parts.

Today's 12z

12z on 1/11

Isn’t this pretty close to the Euro ensemble mean from earlier today?

Just now, stormtracker said:

OMG. This is hilarious! Thanks!

Where is Jebman? We need some positivity around here.

I could be in denial, but I don’t think anything is set in stone yet. Look what happened on Jan 3rd - from nothing to 6-12 inches with 48 hours notice.   I don’t expect to have all snow, but we could end up with snow to sleet and back to a thump of snow.  It definitely wouldn’t be the 1st time the models couldn’t figure out a coastal. I’m in Western Fairfax, so we are still in the game for a decent amount at this point, but I hope for some shifts eastward in the next 24. 

Just now, mappy said:

wow, only 4 pages to read since i went to bed at 11. oh boy. 

Just skip over everything until the last page. Last night wasn’t good (at least for east if 81), but hopefully the rest of the day will continue the 6z trend and stop the ledge jumping. 

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m probably making it sound worse than it is. The 18z euro control (and it looked very similar at 90 to the op euro so I think it’s safe to say this is about what the 18z euro was just lower resolution) was fine. Just saying given what it looked like at 90-100 hours a but shocking the low ends up over Hagerstown.  But this seems acceptable Imo.  We can thank the cold airmass in place for these results despite the track. 
 

For a mean, this seems pretty darn acceptable.   

36 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

that storm gave 2 feet at Dulles.  I'll take it!

I was in Fairfax/Fair Oaks. The 1st storm that week gave us about 2 feet. The 2nd storm (I’m guessing that was the 12th) was about 10”-12”.

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If that draws complaints, then I’ve entered the twilight zone

I thought it was a little low but realized it’s the Ensemble. Not bad at all. 

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

 

Is there a key to this one? 

On Saturday, the GFS was giving me 39.9” of snow by Jan 23rd.  So the MLK plus the 22nd-23rd Storm should do the trick. 

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

y'all keep posting the CMC like its EVER been right for us.      

 

 

EVER

 

Miss Cleo has more accurate calls.

 

 

And she's dead

 

Like Betty White.

It happened.  Once. 

3 hours ago, yoda said:

This works. 

5 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

It's in a strong shear zone and should transition to subtropical before causing too much damage. That said, I've asked FCPS to close just in case. 

I’ll take another day, or week. It’s going to be cold tomorrow. Can you get FCPS to close? 

I’m a bit confused as to why we just a WWA in Fairfax Co. It doesn’t seem like it’s going to do much until later. It’s already over 33 at my house in western FFX Co. I understand other places may be a bit cooler, but am I missing something?