snowmagnet

26 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS Sunday storm

This showed up last week on January 27th.  I got a screen shot of it and sent it to my boss - a snowstorm would be her birthday gift. Hope the GFS has this one right. 

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I like the weekend storm on the GFS

Love this! 

3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

What is record for most freezing rain in dc metro?  

You should probably look at Jan ‘94. Not sure if that was a record amount, but the cold freeze afterwards was brutal and the ice stayed a long time. 

I saw that the NWS discussion now mentions the cold front and chance for a changeover Friday morning. It seems that they are hesitant to go there after the last anafrontal debacle.  They also mentioned a coastal low possibility on Sunday…

5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I am not buying what the GFS is selling. Didn't it do poorly on that cold chasing precip storm a couple weeks ago? Don't ice storms around here usually underperform? No other model support. Ya figure too, temps crash and its not just going to magically ice over. Thats going to take a bit. So its got to be overdone in my opinion.

Maybe I have no dog in this fight. I am chasing this and will be on the snow side of the boundary where ever that ends up being. 

You must not have lived here long.  We do sleet and ice quite well. 

9 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Yup, and the euro was showing a blizzard for the metro's this time last week for the same time period. 

I don’t remember that one. Seems like it would have caused a stir in here. I do remember the GFS previously thought the metros were getting a blizzard 9 days before this past weekend too.   So they all have their faults.  

What do the Canadians say about this one? 

11 minutes ago, 87storms said:

that's the one i'm interested in.

Is that the Sunday night thing? Last week it had a big snowstorm. 

CWG is predicting a cold and snowy February.  Book it. Winter isn’t over. 

51 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey which app tells ya how much time you spend on a particular page?

iPhone automatically gives me a weekly amount of screen time under settings. It’s always much higher during winter! 

52 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We have the dumbest of hobbies.  I don't know about anybody else, but sometimes I wish I was a normie.  My mom knew I was weird when I was 4.  It would be thundering and lightening outside, everybody going away from the windows and I'd sit in a chair at the window.  High school, calling my mom to hold the phone up to the TV at 11:20 tuned to the weather channel when the 5 day business planner came on.  I'm honestly surprised my mother just didn't throw the whole child away and start over.

Clearly you aren’t the only one.  I didn’t have cable TV growing up, so I’d have to rely on Bob Ryan and calling WE6-1212. 

Today my phone told me that I spent almost 12 hours last week on this page.  My other pointless hobby (that I absolutely love) is Genealogy research. Hours and hours of time trying to find dead relatives. 
 

9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

In fairness, there’s really no system that seems to do that.

Jan 3rd?

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Now the world is starting to make sense.

We need this. Never been a more desperate time for our area

Have you blocked out almost every winter since 2016?  Especially 2019-2020!

34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ninos often feature the pineapple connection or a stream of moisture and/or shortwaves from HI to Socal. When storms enter the country in socal it's WAAAAY different than when they enter in Seattle. That's the primary reason we like ninos. The further south a storm enters the conus, the better chance of it staying south of us. Plenty of ninos never get that though and it can happen in any enso state. 

When i read your posts and questions it always looks like a constant search for 1+2=3 in weather. You gotta move past that quick here. It has never and will never work that way. We've wasted ungodly good setups and gotten hit flush in some of the dumbest. Never ever expect anything to do anything in particular no matter what 

Eta: when I see a nice blocked pattern with a 50/50 or whatever, all it tells me that there is a real CHANCE at a big storm. Not that there will be a storm. And even if there is, a lot still has to break right to take advantage of the longwave setup. When models spit out a big blocked storm a week out, it makes sense to me. That's it. When models spit out an unblocked coastal ripper big hit a week out, it will never make enough sense to me to expect anything. 

I assume the last time we saw a blocked pattern a week out was Jan ‘16, is that correct? 

1 hour ago, diatae said:

SN, 31/31 La Plata after a 40 degree high today. I wasn't feeling well, so I took a nap around 3 and just woke up to this. Not sure when it started.

My Uncle lives in Port Tobacco. I just called to check on him and te didn’t even know it was snowing. He looked outside and there was ½” 

I remember January 2010 was really  depressing. We had an epic December (quite unusual), and then just a very cold and boring month (until the end).  Then there was February. Not saying this is going to be anything like 2010, but I’m optimistic that winter is not finished with us yet. 

21 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

LOL! Perfect! 

I actually saw trucks out earlier brining the roads. Is that the PRE brine event then? 

They started in Fairfax city yesterday. I think they got a second coat today.  For our .2”. 

Just now, MN Transplant said:

I know that the HRRR can be…sketchy, but the low precip totals that it is putting out for coastal areas is amazing.

Hasn’t the HRRR been pretty good during the past month? 

If one could actually read the maps, which is questionable, where are those numbers coming from? 4-8” for Fairfax County?  If  I’m reading correctly. 

31 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Let me dust off the pbp for this threat on the Euro.

Yay!  I was hoping you’d bring back the pbp’s. Surely we’ve earned an easy-to -track storm after this dumpster fire of a week. But that’s  doubtful. 

This is crazy.

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its gooder.

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Right? 39hrs lol. Gfs would be out 120+ by now. 

Slow and steady wins the race? 

I might be in the minority here, but I have thoroughly enjoyed this week of tracking this storm, even if we don’t get a flake IMBY. I would rather chase a blizzard and get nothing vs just staring outside at 33 degree rain. Stormtrackers pbp’s have been amazing, and the analysis by PSU, WUSAF, Bob, and others, are extremely informative- especially PSU’s reality-check about Miller B’s. All of your time is appreciated and I love seeing all the personalities on this board.   And frankly, I don’t understand how people function when staying up watching the late night runs every night.   

I hope this ends up great for someone here, and here’s to looking forward to the February medium and long range…  

34 minutes ago, frd said:

Yes, in Middletown, DE, so hopefully I have better odds, we will see.

Hopefully we all score across the board with an over running event in early February. 

Do you have a favored time frame for early Feb? Last I checked was near  Feb 6 th or 7 th. But, that was days ago.  

 

Ji posted a pretty GFS picture for February 7th in the weekend thread.

Anything interesting on other 18z runs tonight?