snowmagnet

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wrt the pac jet, it’s been buckling, amplifying, and varying which is a big welcome change. It’s still been generally averaging stronger than normal more often than not when I check but it’s not been this straight across blast of pac puke into N America 

That is very encouraging. I know that pac has been a huge problem for us for quite a while!

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know this is long but I’m pretty busy this weekend so this is my one deep analysis contribution for the weekend  

But first man that was some epic entertainment in here earlier.  Vice hiatus is a tool but at least he unites us!  And Ji is a classic. It’s like dry satire. You have to be a certain way to appreciate it. I know I’m weird but I would miss him. 

As for the pattern coming, it’s like someone gave me the crayons.  But first I wanted to clear up a misconception. Nina’s aren’t that bad. Or I guess what I should say is they aren’t any worse than what EVERY winter is with the exception of the very rare moderate or modoki ninos.  The fact is those skew our winters. Everything else is some version of bad on avg. 

I used BWI for this because DCA sucks and I hate looking at their data it’s depressing. I think BWI is more indicative of more people. If someone else wants to run the numbers for DCA go ahead.  

The last 12 Nina’s at BWI had an avg snowfall of 16.7” with 2 above avg and 5 single digit years. Yea that’s not good. But get this…

The last 12 enso neutral winters had an avg of 13.9” with 2 above avg and 5 single digits!  Nina’s we’re significantly better!  

And even crazier the last 12 non modoki or moderate ninos had an avg of 15.7 with 2 above and 4 single digits.  Nina’s we’re even slightly better than all non modoki moderate ninos!!!!!

There have been 7 modoki or moderate ninos since 1960 and they were all above average snow with a mean of 45.4”!  

So basically we want a moderate or modoki Nino.  Those are almost all blockbusters!  But that’s 7 out of 60 years!!!  Of all the rest Nina’s are actually the best option!  They all give us about a 17% chance it an above avg snow year but Nina’s have the highest mean snowfall of all the other options.  Yea Nina’s are crappy usually.  And so are neutrals and weak or strong ninos!  But every once in a while (17%) a fluke snowy winter happens in a year other than a mod modoki nino and we just take it and be grateful.  

Now I want to post the mean Nina h5 again. 

I wanted this up for comparisons sake. I want to contrast our typical issues in a nina that prevent a snowy winter 83% of the time with what I’m seeing. Note the dominant features. Central pac ridge. But often that ridge does get far enough east to not be a huge problem. Note the mean trough position is central not west. That’s a mean from two different Nina pattern as I discussed with griteater the other day. When the pac ridge extends poleward or there is blocking typically the trough is actually east of that mean and into the east. When the pac ridge is flat or the AO positive it’s west and the trough is out west with a big east ridge.  It’s “variable” is what I’m saying.  Temps actually avg colder in Nina’s than neutral or strong Nino winters!  

The real problem is what you see across the south.  Note the higher heights across east from that pac ridge through the southern US. That’s indicative that there is no stj. If any systems were running through there you would see lower pressures not higher. That’s the typical problem. We really do need some stj involvement.  We’re usually too far south to get much from pure NS systems and too far west for late developing NS induced coastals. 
 

The last two snows had southern influencE!  Very un Nina like. The first was almost all southern stream moisture. I guess technically a mid latitude SW dug enough to cut off and tap the STJ but I don’t care about that level of detail. Point is the gulf was open for business. This last system wasn’t a total fail because of the influx of gulf moisture. The late developing miller b coastal was a miss. But we were saved the typical miller b disaster by the fact it was a hybrid with some gulf involvement. 

Now look at this 18z gefs mean for next weekend. 

This isn’t crazy far out.  One week away.  The ensembles have been good inside day 10 with the longwave patterns and the eps and geps agree.  
 

Aleutian trough pumping an epo ridge.  Lower heights from the pac across the south indicating an active stj Ridging across the top.  And the best part is the drivers that lead to this are in motion now.  The SOI is tanking now.  The pacific jet retraction starts in a few days.  

Now why I and others are so encouraged.  This looks like a Nino!  This is the comp mean of those 7 really good Nino years. 

Look at the similarities in the hemispheric longwave pattern coming up.  I have no idea why this Nina isn’t behaving like a typical Nina. It wasn’t really when we had a -5 pna either. That’s more typically a enso neutral thing actually. I also have no idea why it’s starting to line up like a Nino now either.  Someone smarter than me can dig into hat.  We had a Nino that acted like a Nina a few years ago. Maybe enso isn’t what it used to be. Or maybe this is the 17%. I don’t know. I don’t care. It’s cold. It’s snowing. The pattern ahead looks great. I’m not kicking a gift horse in the mouth. And Vice Hiatus can suck it.  

Thanks for these details.  I don't understand half of it, but I'm trying to learn.  I remember hearing that we were heading into a Modaki El Nino last year (or maybe 2 years ago---it's all a blur), but either it was too late in the season, or it didn't pan out.  I don't know.  I wasn't excited about this year since it was La Nina, but our El Nino didn't work out well the past 2 years either.  So maybe it is just all luck. 

I do have a question about the Pacific Jet.  I know that the Pac has been a huge problem for us during the past few years.  However, I haven't really heard it mentioned this year.  Is it not "raging" like the past couple of years? 

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

Jan 2016 redux?  

7 hours ago, Jebman said:

I love weather to death. First my late dad was upset about my snow obsession, now I live with my brother, I get the line about Dont make an IDOL out of weather geeze. I love weather so much, I wanna obsess all my life then happily burn in hell for eternity. It would be worth it. I dont like God, I love The WEATHER! I have so many obsessions, I have an obsession about obsessions. Now its Gardening, love tomatoes. Workin in the Texas sun in August down here. Now delivery. I tried out Doordash, totally obsessed. I'll NEVER grow up. I will obsess and obsess and obsess. I wasted all our family money on therapy. I am a total waste of money and I am PROUD of this, in the end, I still obsess about the snow and floods and will never EVER listen! I am totally terminal and rebellious. I'll proclaim to God's Face that I love snow forever, then proudly march straight into my very own Judgment for ever. I will NEVER learn! I will set the Record straight forever: I love snow, I love floods like Harvey, I got off on the water rising so damn much it was unbelievable. I jumped for JOY over Harvey, and Hurricane Matthew in Florida! Those YouTube videos were the joy of my disaster loving life! I was absolutely obsessed over EVER weather disaster known to man, all my life! I love severe ice storms too! Man those tires spinning on the ice, all the acrid smoke! There's nothing like watching a car spin on an icy road! One thing that I find extremely fulfilling personally, is people stuck on I-95 during a major blizzard replete with high winds, record amounts of snow and severe wind chills! No one in this world is nearly as happily obsessed especially with challenging winter weather, as I! I turn 58 this year! I'll NEVER ever learn! I will NEVER get even the smallest of clues! I wish million year blizzards on Northern Virginia! I love you guys in the Mid Atlantic to get demolished by snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm!!!!! I'd like to see people in Dale City have to crawl out their 2nd floor windows just to get out of the house! I hope you guys end up with one of the baddest winters on record! A Pattern is developing that will set records potentially, for cold and for snow all over the Eastern Seaboard! Every time it snows in Northern Virginia, I dance around as though I just won 2.6 Billion dollars in the D.C. Lottery!

You all get the picture. I am crazy obsessed with Weather, and everything else I like.

No one on this planet is nearly as crazy obsessed with snow and all weather, as The Jebman.

 

Beautiful Hurricane Michael coverage

 Wow another one

 

It sounds like you need to move back up north!! But I’m so glad you are still part of this forum.  I love your optimistic posts. You help to balance out Ji’s pessimism. This year it has really worked out for us!   I took a bunch of Jebwalks this week. We just moved to a new neighborhood that has a gorgeous trail behind it. I felt like I stepped into a winter fairytale land when I walked through there on Monday. If I could figure out how to post pictures on here, I would!  Waiting for our next big one… 
 

2 hours ago, benjammin said:

Those tiny maps in the Washington Post and Star. Of course dialing 936-1212 but the biggest thing was when Bob Ryan said it was going to snow a lot because he was usually conservative and right. In January 96 when he forecasted 1-2 feet before a flake had fallen I knew we were going to get nailed.

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk


 

I have distinct memories of watching Bob Ryan’s forecasts and loved it when he had to up his snow totals. He was always so conservative with his snow forecasts. 

On 1/6/2022 at 2:58 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey, how much snow did you get? FCPS has been closed and my friends/family have asked why, I've said how southern Fairfax got hit hard but I forgot how hard you got hit. 8 inches, 10 inches or a foot plus? 

Some place in southern Fairfax County got 10-12”. Many roads had trees down and icy streets leading into schools. 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe this week was the 30,000 ft view big picture “luck” balancing out because I’ve felt the DC area has had pretty awful luck on the whole much of the last 5 years. Don’t get me wrong the prevailing patterns were a mix of decent but flawed and bad much of the time and I’m not saying DC should have done well…but it takes a special kind of bad luck to do as awful as it did Imo. There were enough “decent” periods even in some of those really bad almost snowless winters that I felt like DC should have lucked into at least one decent event. But it’s random. Maybe the randomness turned in our favor finally. 

Living in the DC area most of my my life, I think we have really interesting climatology.  Growing up in Charles County, MD, my mom used to always tell me that we got our biggest storms from the South. She wasn't really a fan of snow, but she did watch a lot of Bob Ryan over the years!  I've since learned a great deal about winter weather dynamics from the amazing people in this forum   Most places in the country aren't between the mountains and the ocean.  I think our location makes for very interesting winter weather tracking (even if it's often frustrating). We definitely have to thread the needle to get those perfect storms, but sometimes we do just get lucky.  Here's to more "snow on snow" this month!

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly though, while I was pretty confident this wasn’t going to be one of the REALLY bad dreg Nina’s I still had conservative expectations in terms of final #s. But had I known most of the forum would be at or close to double digits by Jan 10 heading into prime climo AND shockingly the STJ would be showing signs of behaving in a rather un Nina way…I might have gone even higher. At the least we’ve already avoided this year being in that dreaded list of years we all hate to even mention. But with some luck MAYBE this year has the chance to be one of the rare Nina exceptions. No I’m not talking 1996 level necessarily but the rare Nina that surpasses climo isn’t unfathomable given the current results and coming pattern. 

Feel free to mention that rare January of 1996... you never know.  

28 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Snowing at home.  Neighbor just texted me.  Winchester will be in a few minutes.

Really? It’s not supposed to hit the DC area until around 11 pm. 
 

It’s cold and cloudy - 40 at my house western Fairfax/Herndon.  Feels like it’s gonna snow. 

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig

 

Geez... That's cold.  What's the Euro look like? 

This little system started as a 1-3”, 2-4” discussion earlier in the week. Then we all got excited about adding a couple more inches. I guess we are back to where we started.  We won’t really know until tomorrow at around 6 am.  Until then, we will keep checking in every hour (or more) just to see what changed in the models!   And in the meantime, we will keep looking at the medium range to find our next January ‘16.  

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

DT might be hugging the GFS this time around.

Wow. Last time he called the GFS totals total BS and his map was way under for some areas.   I would love if he would be right this time! 

CWG just increased their totals a bit… everyone gets at least 2” now!  With a boom scenario up to 6”

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Seriously.   I am.  GFS is the only one doing this.  I get the excitement tho

GFS led the way last weekend… 

1 hour ago, SnowDreamer said:

FCPS said this: Across Fairfax County, we continue to receive reports of roadways, sidewalks and pathways that remain unsafe for our students.

This is actually true. Many roads are still not plowed and walkways are treacherous. My husband took a picture of the driveway leading into one of our elementary schools and it was a thick sheet of ice.  I’m sure we will be closed on Friday too. It looks like a couple of inches is at good bet.  Regarding Covid numbers, I appreciate Mother Nature giving us a reason to stay home the week after everyone has been traveling. 

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey guys how did the Euro do last storm 60 hours out. Let’s remember that before we jump off the edge.

I was thinking the same thing. It didn’t do so hot last go around. 

1 hour ago, mappy said:

we will get ours. don't worry.  

As someone from Fairfax Co who got screwed with lots of cold rain/sleet last year, I totally get your frustration!  I have 6" on the ground now (the best snow since Jan '19), but it's always more fun if we all get in on snow in the MidAtlantic.  

I keep checking back to this page for details about later in the week, so please keep asking! 

47 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

I think it gets better my friend 

Starting to look real pretty outside as the sun is coming up

My friend in Charlottesville tried to go to an appointment at 7, but had to turn around due to terrible conditions and accidents. Police everywhere. 

Just got a WAA for Fairfax for 2-4”. It seems to be too conservative based on the latest information.  Is that because they depend on the NAM?

11 hours ago, Ji said:

12 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Not liking this 384hr GFS

Looks like composite of top 20 years where PNA dominated Dec 1 - Jan 3 rolled forward

I have a slight +PNA signal ~Jan 15th>, but February might turn out warmer, especially if that verifies

We just want one event

Hmmm. You say this now, but you won’t be saying that after we get 1 event!  Lol. I seem to remember you weren’t even happy with the winter of 2016! 

A few days ago it looked like we might have 7-8" of rain in the next couple of weeks, then there were a couple of potential snow storms on the horizon.  Now I see I giant "fork" in winter and "dry and windy."  I'm perfectly content with dry and windy at this point.  It's been a fairly miserable winter for those of us south of PSU.  It was fun tracking, but it sucks to have the rug pulled almost every time.   I'm happy to start looking for Spring...

17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Its weird ( we r all whacos)...There's definitely a contingent of people here who matter what ...want to move on to spring come March . They are cut from a different cloth then me . The joke here  is I will track a sleet pellet in April but actually I don't particularly like sleet . . 

 

I’m one of the weird people who is happy to track snow through March and even early April. We’ve had plenty of good storms in March, but this year has been really frustrating for a good part of this forum.  The pandemic adds an extra layer of frustration since people are antsy to get outside and enjoy some nice weather.  I can see why many people are ready to move on to Spring   

59 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Ji starting a storm thread? Yeah Zero percent chance it doesn't bust.

It's not like it can hurt anything.   Everything has been a bust around here (except in PSU town and Winchester)!

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6z PARA....actually Next Friday is starting to look interesting...

Completely trustworthy.... didn't the Para give us 4-8" today?  

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Simple really. Sleet covers everything white, has legit staying power if it stays cold, and I sill get to watch tv at night and not freeze

Great perspective.  It is definitely better than freezing rain, but it would have been nice for the fantasy snow to actually verify for a change.