snowmagnet

some of our best storms have been a couple of days after a significant warm-up.

If we get that little clipper, it is overnight Tuesday to Wednesday, right?

I don't know about other counties, but Fairfax is still a mess from the "snowcrete". We have one lane roads in neighborhoods everywhere, and may of the buses are still sitting in snowy parking lots. I honestly can't imagine how schools will go back tomorrow. Another 1-2" on freezing roads will close us on Wednesday. What are other counties like?

We had around 10 inches last year in the first week of January. And a really nice storm in 2022. I think that one was Jan. 3rd.

That happened to my friend in NC. She still has water dripping and sometimes pouring because of an ice dam. They can’t find the source of it. No midweek snow like the GFS?

You are in Fairfax, right?

My friend in Raleigh is in a snow hole.

HRRR also showed snow over my house today.

These are really funny

What did Boxing Day do? It went south in the last 24 hours. It was supposed to be our storm. Last week it looked like Richmond was bullseye for 2 feet, and it went west, hitting PA, Boston, and NY in the last 24-48 hours. What about PD2? I don't know the details as I was pregnant and sick at the time, but I know we were not supposed to get nearly that much snow. It was either Feb 2013 or 2014 when the Polar Vortex caused some very confused models and we got a lot of cold and surprising high snow totals out of it. This is clearly not a 2016 storm, but coastal storms can be very tricky depending on where that Low decides to stall. I could be 100% wrong, which would make my Raleigh and Southern VA friends very happy, but I think the models will be struggling with this until game time. Just my amateur "cup is half-full" two cents.

I was a kid in Charles County during that one. I'm sure I've got pictures of it somewhere in my parents' photos.I think we had around 2', but I was only 7 so I can't verify that.

I mean, we are tracking a February storm…

What was it we said last week? Right where we want it 4 days out. It will trend north.

Waiting for the Euro

Imagine the mood in here if we were in the Southeast forum.

I was thinking the same...

Except when it doesn’t.

Agreed! That is pretty positive at this point.

How many times have we seen this? I'm not saying it is going to happen, but remember Jan 3, 2022? That storm was in the long range, disappeared in the mid-range, then Ji brought it back from the dead. I think the GFS saw it first, but I'm not sure. I know that most fantasy storms disappear, but it is not unusual for the Euro to see storms a week or 2 out, lose them, and bring them back 3-4 days before. I'm always optimistic, or just crazy.

Ensembles.. Better at this range anyway.

You mean the same as it was at 6z? 20" for all?

How about "might", or "may" instead of "will"? We can do Goldilocks around here. I know it's been a decade, but....

That's not bad for this far out. Models are clearly still working it out.

I love Coastals. It's threading the needle, but they give us the goods if they get it in there.

But he's got the JMA...