Hurricanegiants

Ya. Always bad when 7-8 people browsing. Ugh. Maybe Tuesday night will turn snowier.

Wow. LWX anything but bullish in their 3:00 update. A whole lot of nothing. Even the Mon/Tues was a mix bag. Favoring warner side of temps mostly as well. Ugh. Hopefully later models will turn that around.

Classic NOVA—snow plow in sun. So great.

“Um, ya about those TPS reports, I noticed you said rain, snow, sleet—2 out of those 3 would be great—yaaaa. “

LWX: No blame as it’s 72 hours out Maybe balmy and 75 could be added oye—-here’s hoping to some positive trends tonight. Fun model watching At the moment it appears as though snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will all be possible across the area.

Tell me that’s not a snow hole...

Posting anything from NWS 100+ hours is jinkx central. And as to be expected——could rain, could snow or like a mix of rain and snow and like more N and W maybe, could, perhaps (totally get it but sometimes you wish a commitment of opinion could be established—I know I know) Weak wave of low pressure then moves eastward across the region, with potential for a little mixed precip late in the day or at night. Guidance is highly uncertain with its handling of this first wave, so really not much confidence on it yet. Stronger wave of low pressure then develops in the south-Central Plains Monday and tries to push towards US with more precip. Lots of uncertainty on this as far as timing and type, but still some potential for wintry weather, at least at the start and especially northwest of I-95.

How bad is it? Down to flurries?

Euro awaits

LWX 2:58 The second complicated period will be during the afternoon and evening as the cold front crosses the area. Due to the sharp temperature gradient and a secondary area of low pressure forming along the front in Virginia, precipitation is likely to persist in the cold air for a few hours before ending by late Tuesday evening. So rain will be changing to snow, which could be briefly intense and overwhelm relatively warm surface temperatures. While this looks like an advisory level event with respect to snow amounts, it could have a high impact as the transition could occur during the evening rush hour in the Metro corridor. Then as temperatures crash, any residual moisture and slush could freeze on roadways during the evening/overnight. There is still a good deal of uncertainty regarding the timing blah blah

LP GA/SC border. That would be an improvement for us no??

This is why I love this forum. Real experts (which I am not) and great analysis. Then you have the iPhone weather app that makes you believe the sky is falling snow every other day.

I love that it’s been 2 hours and no comments and yet this has all the makings of a 2-3 inch snowfall. Classic sleeper.

Looking for GFS to kick the can and keep the game going.

Interesting. Hug stormvista—maybe late night models will turn Thursday night into a small victory.

Yes. 70 degrees or a blizzard. One would think it’s March.

Latest from NWS: A more significant storm will impact the region next weekend. Nearly all guidance (deterministic and ensemble) shows an amplifying longwave trough and strong surface low approaching from the southwest Saturday night into Sunday. The system appears to be quite dynamic in nature, and will produce a swath of substantial precipitation across the eastern third of the Continental U.S.. exact impacts locally will be highly dependent on the exact track that the surface low takes. If the storm tracks to our northwest, temperatures could potentially reach into the low 60s, while on the other hand if it tracks to our southeast we could be dealing with a major winter storm. If we end up on the warm side of the system, flooding could be a concern with high quantitative precipitation forecast amounts (eps and gefs ensemble means are both in excess of an inch) falling on whatever residual snowpack exists from this past weekend's storm. The last few model runs have been trending slightly warmer with the system, but it's far too early to make any kind of deterministic....blah blah

Yes. This area has had this scenario before—where it’s quote on quite “mostly a rain event except a brief changeover” and we have overpetforned—the fact that the cold air slaps down fast—5-6 hours of heavy snow can pile up quickly with crashing temps.

Awesome. Awesome weekend. Overperfornrd. Love it. Looking forward to tracking next week. Greedy maybe but let’s keep it rolling.

So true. Often the case here. I’m hoping the coastal performs like it says on paper—again, I’m always hesitant with these transfers but these bands are holding true to form. Looking forward to some heavier flakes after midnight.

Any thoughts on the coastal forming too far off shore at this point? I only ask bc too many times over the years, we have a great set up like this but bc it’s not coming from the south—we sometimes put too much stock in accumulations based on the “transfer of energy.” I feel like it’s a rarity in these parts to have that lull and then the thump a few hours later from the coastal... no?

For my own understanding, at this point, are we to continue to focus on the GFS/Euro or are we into the “other” model territory 24 hours out?

I wonder if that was suppose to be pm

This is interesting??? 7 am Sunday? WHEN...From 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday.

My concern as well. That low needs to phase (as always) south