Scarlet Pimpernel

Ever stop by the main discussion threads during the winter? Snow becomes a proxy for politics! Just kidding! Seriously though, you're right...some of the stuff in the COVID thread has gotten even worse than the ugly commentary when winter events fail!

Man, I should camp out on your steps, so the next time someone drops booze off to you, I can grab-and-go!! Curb side service!! Joking, of course...well, maybe! But that looks quite tasty, now I want a margarita! And it is cool that someone dropped those other beers off to you before, too!

At your place, isn't that kind of like bringing coals to Newcastle??

Well...just make sure that you're not passed out ON the curb awaiting curbside pickup, wondering where the hell you're at or what you're doing there!

The most fun project of all!

Fixed your post for ya! Now get to work (on all that beer)!!

Yesterday was gorgeous out. Went for a walk at the Audubon nature center (not far from me) and took several photos. Here's a hawk that was circling for long enough to get a good shot: And an ever-elusive cardinal:

Not looking too bad in a modest heel, there!

After looking at this run a few times, I noticed the high-heel shoes!!

Couple of photos from the America Strong flyover by the Blue Angels and Thunderbirds. This was right near Walter Reed Medical Center. Taken at 300mm focal length, then cropped.

And hard to believe that many years ago the Panic Room was but a gleam in the eye-socket of the Reaper's skull!

I know, right??? I remember long ago in college, one would know what day of the week it was by the particular specials they had at this place across from the graduate housing I lived in at the time (called "The Pub"...so imaginative!). Usually had those Thu-Fri-Sat-Sun, and usually it was for crap beer. But hey, you're in college, so who cares right?! Not that I went every night, mind you. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it!

Very cute!!

Oh...... . . . ......my!

Gotta say, that...thing...you posted earlier had a @ravensrule joke written all over it!

Ahhh, thank you for taking our minds off that abomination posted earlier! And thankfully, no Vienna sausages or Spaghetti-os involved!!

I cannot wait to hear what she would have to say about that..."recipe"!! (Then hopefully post a photo of something really good!)

I just...no, not going there... There are no words!

You do understand what the SPREAD of ensemble forecasts shows, correct?

For a forecast issued on JANUARY F-ING FIRST...yeah, not too awful. Do you expect it to be perfect 15 days in advance? Then you should find a new field to study. And the MEAN curve, if you follow that, was not even in the COD on the 15th, though it was approaching it. Oh, and I count what looks like 2 members that actually go into the COD, and a couple that go to P6. Most of the rest kind of bounce and circle around P5, with some decreasing amplitude.

I know we're all more than a bit on edge because the indications turned very sour over the past few days for the medium range. But I have to say, this is kind of unfair to @psuhoffman. He did not "all but cancel winter" when some bad signs showed up. He stated very clearly that IF such-and-such occurred, we're about cooked (literally?). And what he said was absolutely true...if various things occur with the pattern, you can throw our snow chances out the window. Now we're seeing...very unfortunately...indications that this might occur in the medium range now, after a period of seeing much more favorable signs. It sucks, but that's what's being shown. It may not be right, it may change to looking good again. Or we could look good after that period. Who knows. I'm just keeping hope for one good period this winter, whether it's February or first part of March, to give us *something* more than a couple of slushy inches followed by rain. I've seen some God-awful winters in the time I've lived here, and some really good ones. I'd like to think we can avoid "God awful" without too much difficulty. That doesn't mean a HECS, but at least one decent storm. (And by God-awful, I mean an entire winter season with barely an advisory-level event a time or two, and low single-digit snow for the year).

Not to be overtly rude, and attempting to be somewhat diplomatic here...but are you being deliberately obtuse??

You know, I was just about to reply to him stating exactly this. I looked at that Jan. 1-15 MJO forecast from the EPS and thought the verification looked pretty damned good as well! Thanks for stating the same thing. And while the mean from that older forecast kind of diminished toward the COD, the envelope clearly had quite a range and some members pushed into P6 (which is what occurred). So yeah, not bad for a 15 day forecast. Sadly, it meant things sucked for us, but it is what it is.

You know, I actually can see and agree with what both you and @psuhoffman have been saying, though there is some disagreement between you in what you've both said. PSU is absolutely right on the points that the pattern has not been the same since about mid-December, though the result for us doesn't seem much different (or improved!). And I certainly can agree that we're getting into at least a somewhat more favorable look for the latter part of this month, definitely better than a total shutout. But it's the details (ah, the devil is in there!) that can kill us...a shortwave here, a trough too far east there...and we get crap when not long before things looked better. Likewise, what he said about our "base state" or climatology here is pretty well spot-on...we are not in a location that has high likelihood of snow year in and year out, in fact, it's not all that great of a probability on average. It's really hit or miss here, you get hammered or get almost nothing. It took me a few years living here to fully get that the "average snow" doesn't mean much because the variability is huge! Coming from northeast Ohio, the variability is far less, so even a "meh" year typically isn't all that awful. I also can definitely see and empathize with what you're saying. From our perspective, it doesn't look like anything has really improved (I am now remembering that "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" scene, where Indy and his dad are in the fireplace, which rotates around, and his dad says "Our situation has not improved!"). The pattern is definitely quite different, but we're not seeing anything "good" (i.e., good snow chances) show up for us. Not sure I'm fully on board with the storm persistence "memory" kind of thing, because if the pattern is not the same, then things aren't persistent by definition, I suppose. But again, it sure seems that way whether true or not. I don't know what it would take to do a "reshuffle" so that we're in a better spot here, or if such a thing would happen. So much seems almost right, but just enough "off" to "F" things up.

I don't know man...the way this season has gone, you never know!! But joking aside, I guess (???) it's nice that the Euro weeklies looked good (according to what @psuhoffman said earlier), and that the CFS keeps indicating a cold February. We'll see.