Scarlet Pimpernel

I see your "irregardless" and raise you with a..."NEVERTHELESS, that looks damn tasty!!" Indubitably, sir!

Ha! Many thanks, my friend! I'll settle for "Casablanca" for now... (ETA: Is that Claude Rains playing the Reaper in the Panic Room casino???)

That's really cool, appreciate it!! Thanks, young lady! I will do so! One way or another.. Appreciate the fine wishes! Thanks everyone, for making the day a little brighter!! Hope everyone is staying well...

Yeah, makes sense for MD to close into the 3rd week of April for right now, rather than the entire year. At least for now. I fully expected that the original March 27 date would be extended. About all you can do is push the date back some...then reassess at that time. I wonder how many schools will extend classes through the summer to make up the time, assuming we're OK to have kids go back en masse at that time. So on a different note, today is my birthday! It's an anniversary of my 29th, but I'm not saying which one (but for a hint...get off my damn lawn! )!! Odd times to be celebrating that, but one makes of it what they can. I remember getting snow on this day in consecutive years here...2013 (4") and 2014 (3")!! That was nice.

Stay well and stay safe everyone. Remember that despite the dire times we're in currently, there are still some pretty things in this world! If all I can have is my Canon 80D and lenses to feel somewhat normal, then so be it. Couple of photos from today:

If they decide to show "famous" baseball highlights, with my luck (as a Cleveland native), they'll show Game 7 of both the 1997 and 2016 World Series in their entirety. Just so I can experience the pain again. Both times, the Indians lost in extra innings!! I think there were like 5 Game 7s in history that went into extra innings, and Cleveland was on the short end of two of those within my lifetime!! I'd prefer to see Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals again...in all its nail-biting entirety!!

Hell, just put it in the Medium Range discussion thread! After the disaster that thread turned into this winter, might as well discuss Corona virus there at this point!!

Hey, a little late seeing this, but will echo what some others have said...hope your mom is OK and stays safe! And you take care as well! And you're absolutely correct about not looking at things from a narrow perspective or that "most" people will likely just have minor effects. Have you seen the graphic of COVID-19 deaths by age group? It's quite eye-opening, and reveals a lot more than the single average value that's typically reported. The numbers increase dramatically from age ~60+, even more so than what the normal flu does. That is primarily why many of these preventive measures are necessary.

Wait, didn't the Astros get all kinds of sanctions for cheating??

Oh man...you're like ready to be holed up for awhile with all that stuff! Even the top shelf is bulging under the weight! I'd be glad to help you lighten the load there...

Pretty much...if you've got many years before retiring, you can withstand even some big market drops and swings. I'm a fed. employee myself, actually put everything into one of their "L" funds which sort of "automatically" adjusts the investments as your projected retirement year approaches. I'm not exactly the most knowledgeable on these things other than basic stuff, so I don't tinker much...and yeah, kinda lazy (I've heard some refer to the "L" fund as the "lazy fund", haha!).

Hey supernova...I hope you get better, and take good care of yourself OK!! Stay safe...

Oh, I agree...and I wasn't trying to get overly political, sorry. This country has done much better before with other crises for sure. But it doesn't help to have mixed messages from the top (or at least near the top), people defying what experts are saying, or flat out stating things that aren't true. That doesn't help anyone. It is true that sometimes, we manage in spite of poor leadership, so maybe you're right in some ways that it might not matter so much who's in charge (up to a point!). There's an element of "catch up" with anything...hell, just look at major weather events for one thing. But we'd hope to refine that over the years. As for the Swine Flu thing...from what I've heard that was more like an actual flu virus, so there was some more "familiarity" (for lack of a better word), and perhaps easier to gin up a vaccine. I remember getting the vaccine at some point shortly after they came out with it. I guess my main point (or one of them) in my other post is that I don't have much of a problem with these cancellations and postponements, advice to avoid big crowds, etc...even though on the surface it seems like "overkill" perhaps. Better to be inconvenienced by that rather than have something worse happen. Now, as I write this, I found out that Gov. Hogan just ordered all MD schools to close for two weeks starting this upcoming Monday. My daughter is in MoCo, and this has been a possibility for a little while now...so not overly surprising. I know many schools have been planning some online stuff, at least to mitigate some of the lost time. A friend of mine in the Atlanta area just told me they closed Cobb County schools for the rest of the school year! I'm sure many, many locations will be having summer classes to make up at least some time.

Meh...I've been to Cleveland Indians games in the late 70s and 80s. That was essentially like playing with no fans!!

Ha! So many people stocking up on water and TP...I say stock up on booze!

Totally agree with this. The main reason for all the "social distancing", postponements, cancellations...is perhaps not so much to try and stop the spread at this point (though it may help with that, as well), but to keep emergency facilities from being overwhelmed all at once. Anyone who's seen that "flatten the curve" graphic should immediately get that. And even if one isn't necessarily in a high risk group, you cannot be certain that you won't require some form of professional medical care. This isn't about panic, this is about common sense. Thanks for this. While for a large majority it may be relatively mild (not sure the exact definition of what "mild" constitutes, but I'll take that to mean not needing to be hospitalized), a significant number of people have and will be really adversely affected. Out of 100+M, that would be a lot of people, and I'm sure we all know someone who might be in the higher risk group (family member, friend, co-worker, etc.). Like I said above, there's a difference between panic and common sense...this is common sense what the experts are saying and warning about. I'll take a few weeks or couple of months of "inconvenience"...like not going to some event or travelling...over things getting potentially very dire. And in the end, if we get lucky and it ends up being not as bad as thought...then great! I still think hedging on the side of caution is far better. As for the Swine Flu a decade ago, yeah, I remember that. Not to get overly political here, but in that case, we actually had some competent leadership listening to experts, etc., which quite possibly kept it from being even worse (plus a vaccine was developed...though I think it was maybe "easier" in that case because it actually was a somewhat familiar flu. Coronavirus isn't really a flu and is quite different in many ways). And the exponential growth is something people should pay more attention to (as you mention), rather than saying "oh, there's only a couple thousand, and it's not all that bad". I'd also wager that the current number of cases is far more than being reported, simply because probably a lot of people may already have it, or had minor symptoms and didn't need to go in for treatment, etc. Add to that the fact that one could be walking around with no symptoms for nearly 2 weeks, but still be contagious. That's one of the more sinister things about this virus, as opposed to the "normal" flu or a cold.

Nice shutout for February! A "T"...that's like getting no-hit instead of a perfect game thrown against you, I guess. IAD and DCA also recorded a trace, I believe. I think I saw a flake or two at some point during the month, so yeah...a trace for me as well. So, in the time I've been here (since 2001), this winter now stands as the worst for snow (though not sure if necessarily the warmest, but must be close!). I measured maybe 2.0" total I think, the biggest event being 1.5" in January. 2011-12 had been the worst (closely followed by 2001-02), but this one...just a stinker all around, gate-to-gate and no letup. Now of course, we'll get a slushy 2" sometime in March to mess that up, right?!

That should get us into early December. I'm all in!! Start a thread!

March 25, 2013 comes to mind. Now, that wasn't as bad as this winter has been, but it was loaded with disappointment (especially when we got screwed earlier that month).

Let's just take p02 or p19 and be done with it!

You do understand what the SPREAD of ensemble forecasts shows, correct?

For a forecast issued on JANUARY F-ING FIRST...yeah, not too awful. Do you expect it to be perfect 15 days in advance? Then you should find a new field to study. And the MEAN curve, if you follow that, was not even in the COD on the 15th, though it was approaching it. Oh, and I count what looks like 2 members that actually go into the COD, and a couple that go to P6. Most of the rest kind of bounce and circle around P5, with some decreasing amplitude.

I know we're all more than a bit on edge because the indications turned very sour over the past few days for the medium range. But I have to say, this is kind of unfair to @psuhoffman. He did not "all but cancel winter" when some bad signs showed up. He stated very clearly that IF such-and-such occurred, we're about cooked (literally?). And what he said was absolutely true...if various things occur with the pattern, you can throw our snow chances out the window. Now we're seeing...very unfortunately...indications that this might occur in the medium range now, after a period of seeing much more favorable signs. It sucks, but that's what's being shown. It may not be right, it may change to looking good again. Or we could look good after that period. Who knows. I'm just keeping hope for one good period this winter, whether it's February or first part of March, to give us *something* more than a couple of slushy inches followed by rain. I've seen some God-awful winters in the time I've lived here, and some really good ones. I'd like to think we can avoid "God awful" without too much difficulty. That doesn't mean a HECS, but at least one decent storm. (And by God-awful, I mean an entire winter season with barely an advisory-level event a time or two, and low single-digit snow for the year).

Not to be overtly rude, and attempting to be somewhat diplomatic here...but are you being deliberately obtuse??

You know, I was just about to reply to him stating exactly this. I looked at that Jan. 1-15 MJO forecast from the EPS and thought the verification looked pretty damned good as well! Thanks for stating the same thing. And while the mean from that older forecast kind of diminished toward the COD, the envelope clearly had quite a range and some members pushed into P6 (which is what occurred). So yeah, not bad for a 15 day forecast. Sadly, it meant things sucked for us, but it is what it is.