Scarlet Pimpernel

Yup...well, that just figures! But you're correct, it's not worth worrying about how the GFS is handling a NS shortwave that far out...if there even is a NS wave by then in that precise location. Butterfly wings flapping is a prettier image, but cow's fart works too!!

Huh? OK, seriously...WTF is going on there? I have to assume there's some kind of shortwave around the Lakes area screwing up the flow or something like that. Or simply no antecedent cold air in place at all.

As I recall at the time, the global medium range model (LFM, limited fine mesh!!) of that day had it about a week in advance. And it was being widely discussed 5-7 days out in terms of its potential and severity. It was heralded as a numerical model success, for good reason. That system was similar to other "big dogs" like Feb. 2010 or Jan. 2016 (I assume Jan. 1996 too?), where the synoptic setup was just so blatantly clear, and models tend to grab onto those early and not waver much at all.

Can't recall much detail about that winter, must have slipped my mind. Any stats on how it was for the area offhand??

Thanks again, PSU, for being a voice of reason in here...difficult as that can be at times! I'll admit, the looks today have been very disappointing, after several days of very promising potential the latter part of this month and into February. OK, much of that disappointment is probably effects of this weekend's (non?)event. But for the longer range beyond that, it's one run, of one model system really (EPS). The 12Z GEFS I think looked fine still beyond this weekend(?) from what I saw shown earlier. Others have said this (I think you as well), but if the potential for this upcoming weekend never really existed or showed up as possibly being pretty good, I wonder how we'd all feel. Even with that, many were considering anything this weekend (IF anything) would be bonus, and the better time that was being honed in on was around the 24th or there about, and beyond. Of course, the EPS may well be a canary in a coal mine and models from here on out trend toward "meh" or worse, who knows. But for now we just have to sit tight and see.

Very tropical...

So, payback is a...bastard? I think you meant payback has been a female dog (not the son), perhaps, if you were trying to word that phrase diplomatically!

That was sometime later in Feb. 2015, right? Extremely cold at the start, we got like 6-8" snow then ice and some rain/drizzle. But that was only toward late day and at night after many hours of snow. Yeah, that was quite an unusual setup, not something you get here that often. Thing is, we weren't done with winter after that event, either (the early March ice then a final moderate snow event was icing...literally!...on the cake of a 4 week period!).

Ha! Well, maybe so, I was only having fun though. And yes, Cincy has been much better over the past decade (apart from maybe this year?) with playoff appearances. And I do remember the 2 SBs they played vs. 49ers back in the day. I grew up in the Cleveland area, long suffering on all sports fronts (until the Cavs won in 2016!). Where about in Cincinnati are you from? My sister at one point lived there (and she also went to Miami Univ. of Ohio years ago). So I've been there a few times, though not sure how much I remember about different neighborhoods there at this point. And I was in Columbus for about a year (interesting dichotomy there...between Indians/Reds and Browns/Bengals fans). Always cool to meet another Ohioan! (ETA: I remember "Red Right 88", "The Drive", "The Fumble", "The Shot", and 2 World Series lost in Game 7, both in extra innings!!)

Haha, no, of course not! I was only chiding you there (since I'm from northeast Ohio) because I had to, of course! And God forbid we fail like either the Bungles or the Clowns in terms of the pattern!

Now wait just a minute there, sir!! Change that to Cincinnati Bengals and it might be more accurate! Though yes, the Browns most definitely have a history lately of total ineptitude, even with the talent they had this year (that's what you get with poor coaching and poor discipline!).

Hahaha, just unreal! Suddenly the Texans cannot do anything after essentially being spotted a 24 pt lead! I expected KC would get themselves somewhat back in it by the half, but not quite like that! This might be one of the quickest turn-arounds in the playoffs (see my 1993 comment above, from the old Houston Oilers!). ETA: Four TDs in under 10 minutes now?! Chiefs going from being badly embarrassed to a 4 point lead...

Of course, lest we forget another Houston team from long ago (1993) that had a 35-3 lead vs. Buffalo early in the 2nd half...and ended up losing in just about the most incredible come-back in NFL playoff history.

True...shows how much I've paid attention! But still, it would be a highly unlikely AFC championship. I'm sure most were thinking Ravens, Pats, Chiefs in some combination would be in the final round. (ETA: And hey, give me a break, being from Cleveland...home of the BrClowns! The only team with so much talent and potential this season that they finished 6-10 and nowhere near a playoff spot thanks to crappy coaching and lack of discipline. And the most "exciting" thing was an awful helmet-hit penalty. Gah!!)

Holy cow...Houston! Could we possibly end up with an all-wild-card AFC championship? Kinda rooting for that now, I think!

A bit late here, but couldn't resist!!

Wait...I thought you were Spartacus! Or perhaps Groot.

Took this photo last night...moon in the clouds. The sky was very dramatic looking, I have to say. The moon is overexposed more than I'd like, I know, but in order to get the clouds to "show up", I sort of had to do that with a slower shutter. The blur in the clouds is due to the fact that they were actually moving rather quickly across the scene.

Not that a deterministic at that range means a lot (obligatory caveat!)...but the 18Z GFS looked more or less like we saw in previous cycles for next weekend (MLK weekend). That is, some kind of mess/ice to rain, then some pretty cold air behind it. There's some decent cold ahead of the system too before the flip. In any event, something to watch. Has the look of areas in western/central MD or western VA potentially getting into quite an icing situation, more so than the DC-Balt corridor.

Meh! But seriously, nice signal there for sure. Definitely an uptick in the amounts, especially what appear to be big solutions (and I know, taking snow maps with a huge grain of salt and all that). I'm glad the GEFS is continuing to show that still today. And yeah, that's all in the latter part of the period of the 384-h.

Interesting for sure! But even taking it as-is, couldn't it imply something possible beyond this time, if that ridging in the east gets booted out or suppressed more with the flow upstream? It's almost something like @psuhoffman mentioned earlier, a neutral to -PNA but strong -EPO ridging going up toward the Pole and some good ridging in the NAO region.

A bit late, but here's a couple of photos I got from yesterday's event (love the 17-50mm lens!!!). Right around 1.5" snow where I'm at...

@Bob Chill, I know it's all speculation and model projections out in time, but if that ends up being true, I think we'd all be happy with it! Feb. 2014 was a fun time, and Feb. 2015 had epic cold and some neat events as well (and both years had a solid March, too).

I do believe that is an oxymoron!!

Yeah, I know...but couldn't let that go by. Maybe it was just him being snarky and my snark meter is broken (but irrational could be the case to!)! Anyhow, you're right...the uptick in activity is the main point. I honestly haven't been following too closely but from my reading here, that GEFS plot you showed is probably about the best it's been in some time. I'd take that right now and hope it's a real signal and not a "blip" that will revert to crap again!