MAG5035

Back in Altoona from camp for a few hours. The area of precip I went through coming from Huntingdon County turned to snow and there's a light accumulation back in town. Ice was relatively minor today, mainly just on the ridgetops by the afternoon. Tomorrow looks interesting.

Reporting from the tree stand haha I get poor cell reception down at the camp so I’m a bit limited this weekend with updates. For the wintry mix/ice portion of this storm I have my usual position on CAD staying anchored better than modelled, and really most models have been consistently icy all week to begin with. There will definitely be some impacts region wide with the worst of the ice potential in the ice storm warned counties. More sleet further east and northeast may prevent warning level ice accrual but the mix will likely make things slippery. The wildcard is the redeveloping coastal and upper level low swinging through. The biggest snow potential is in the Poconos (with the coastal) but the ULL passage could make for periods of snow getting towards Monday in C-PA. I thinking maybe 1-2” type potential with the ULL but any meso banding could spike snowfall in spots. Patchy snow could linger for awhile too

Good to see a lot of folks in here scored/are scoring some snow this morning. I only had a couple tenths worth of snowfall here as the deform band set up probably about 20-30miles east of here early this morning. NWS State College reported 1.5" at the office and I'll be finding out here a little later if my hunting area on Tussey southeast of town ended up with more. Next focus for possible winter weather appears to be next weekend. Models have been progging a deep low developing into the northern plains, while a strong Canadian high sets up to our north. A pretty classic ice event look. Sometimes this setup with the parent low so far west can yield front end snowfall too but there doesn't seem to be a deep cold push behind Wednesday's system to be very sure on that. GFS has been more insistent on this scenario but I saw the Euro had that look as well last night. Def something to keep an eye on this week. First week of December looks cold behind this potential system.

Judging by the 511 cams around the State College area currently, it appears that UNV is going to have it's measurable snow. Several cams showing snow covered roads. This solid band of heavier precip in the central mountains region may end up warranting an advisory first thing this morning for a few counties.

All snow, and coming down decently. Working on a coating.

Changeover is starting to occur down here. Mostly sleet now.

Some winter action to report on from nearby (4 miles up the road). The Allegheny front has some fairly notable ice accums ongoing. Wopsy Rd@Skyline Dr above Altoona:

The way the pattern appears to be shaping up for the second half of the month is certainly favorable for a potential early season event(s). Considering the month we're talking about is still November, the progged establishment/stability of what is pretty much a winter-type pattern is notable. It's not a "one off" type thing where we briefly might line up things for a snow event and it's back to being 60ºF and above average in a few days. It's more of a seasonal temps at best (generally below average) with a fairly suppressed storm track that keeps the cold air close and provides realistic opportunities for early snows. Going off some of today's runs (12 and 18z), GFS and Euro differ some in alignment in that D6-10 timeframe. The GFS seems more amplified with the western ridge and overall high height anomalies in the high latitudes (specifically Canada), providing a bit of a colder look and more suppression to the storm track. The Euro is flatter with the western ridge but more amplified with a Greenland ridge in the NAO realm. The flatter western ridge would imply a more zonal pattern that's a bit warmer (but still workable). I do think the more highly amped western ridge the GFS had provides the better potential. We'll see.

Happy one year anniversary:

Pretty snow squally day around here, although the bare ground and earlier sun in between melted most light accums off. Glass table on the deck has about a half inch on it, so that's probably a fair representation of the running total for the day. It also didn't take long to pile up I-80 today in multiple places in Ohio and PA.

The prospect of some potential snow in at least some of the region late in the week is certainly earlier than we generally see but it does occur in the early half of November from time to time. Let's briefly discuss what the models currently have progged next week in the form of a major shot of cold air. That is a whole other thing if that were to come to fruition. Euro and GFS send in sub 504 thicknesses which is quite anomalous for the dead of winter much less the Nov 13-15ish timeframe. We're talking highs not out of the 20s and single digits/ teens low temps depending on the region of PA and if there happens to be any snow on the ground anywhere. Simply put, the D6-10 timeframe looks straight up wintry. If it indeed ends up being that cold or even close to that, one would hope we can score some kind of event out of it. Sans any kind of synoptic event, NW PA and the Laurel's would stand to benefit from a potentially favorable trajectory and ∆T's that figure to light up the lakes like a Christmas tree with a few days of -10 to -15ºC 850 air overhead. Edit to add, the Great Lakes temp map shows Lake Erie (by far the warmest lake by virtue of it also being the shallowest) largely in the upper 50s to near 60ºF or so as of Sunday Nov 3. I haven't looked over in the upstate NY thread much yet, but I'm sure the LES gurus are quite excited about the potential of that. So that's like a 20-30ºC ∆T between lake surface and 850mb (5k feet).

Today's 12z run had a similar look with the wave and pressing cold high running a slug of moderate precip across the state albeit a bit warmer thermally... relegating most of the potential accumulating snows to the Laurel's and the northern tier generally above I-80. Doesn't appear that the low levels get cool in time in the south central and Sus Valley, with 925mb-surface temps lagging. It certainly could indicate an overall rain to snow type scenario for most though, just not notable accums once towards the Sus Valley . Either way, a major shot of cold coming behind the potential system. Canadian and ICON have this system and wave of precip positioned similarly while the GFS is way SE keeping PA completely dry. That's just the take on the models as they look currently but this system is certainly worth keeping an eye on (just in time for switching back to standard time). Timing of the system vs press of the cold air will be important. Given how early it is things will have to align just right, but this is an impressive cold airmass for early November on the playing field so something to the tune of our early event last November is quite possible. I'd personally rather see this type of cold pattern come to fruition in the latter half of November but it's good to see some potential action right off the get go.

And I can confirm a few flurries flying around in the wind here as well now. November looks to open up quite cold.

NWS Pittsburgh reported it snowing at the office there (near the airport) within the last half hour which officially would go as a T. 10th Halloween with snow since 1890.

Yea I think the LSV is more mixed out (evidenced by some gustier surface winds out ahead) and has a much better chance of seeing severe gusts mixed down with the leading line of storms.

FROPA came through here with torrential rain but very little wind. Stable boundary layer stayed pretty firm here as it usually does in these type of situations. Probably will be another couple hours before things finally get mixed out post front and the winds ramp up.

Def one of the more confident and stronger worded special weather statements I've seen for the area. Severe watch issuance is a quite likely and potentially may come with a tornado watch for the southern counties for potential QLCS tornadoes given the dynamics. Winds not very far aloft are screaming, even 850mb winds on mesoanalysis are showing 45-55 knots over PA. It won't take much for the impending squall line to tap down severe wind gusts. Some CAPE being shown in the south central as well (few to several hundred J/kg) which is notable in this type of later fall setup with the high low level shear present. This lends to the potential for QLCS tornadoes imbedded within the squall line. Lastly, the Laurel's/Alleghenies will be seeing their first flakes of the season late tonight/early tomorrow morning with the remaining moisture behind the front. This may also include the immediate central areas off the Laurel's (UNV/AOO region). Any accums should be little to none, but some of the highest Laurel's areas could get a coating.

Also, if you go back to the 2nd page of this thread (post 45) you find a poster that quoted JoMo's last few posts before the storm hit.. the second of which saying about the sirens going off. TIme on that post was 5:17 CDT, right at the time of the warning (VTEC31) issuance. 10 minutes later was his last post about the couplet being nearly overhead. Whatever happened to that particular thread (or portion of this thread) where people were posting as the storm was unfolding? I seem to remember that folks might've been watching that first warned cell when the Joplin cell suddenly exploded into the monster tornado signature just outside of town. There's of course those couple chaser videos that show this tornado going from a developing multiple vortice to a massive wedge in about the time it takes for the doppler to make one scan. I know that's one of the many aspects of this storm that fascinates me..practically watching the whole wall cloud drop to the ground in a minute or two.

Very glad to hear that you and your family are ok.