MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by MAG5035

  1. As promised, here is my map via a different method than I usually do. Normally I just draw my snow zones over a map using powerpoint. This way uses ArcGIS software and making a layout for the results. For any folks that are familiar, it interpolates the map off of the different stations I put on the map and had labelled. Snow amounts were calculated from taking the ratio x QPF. Highest ratios I used were 20:1 in the Laurels Region. Pittsburgh area, SW PA, and southern tier were 17:1. I-80 corridor and Sus Valley were 14-15:1. Far northern tier 12:1. Best precip and lift will run along southern PA. It gets a bit too cold aloft and your away from the best lift for optimum snow rates the further north you go, hence the reason for tapered ratios. I entered about 170 points to make the map produced from the interpolation nice and smooth and entered QPF as best as I could via comparing total precip off the various models, which are pretty close at this point. This is a really low QPF event (I entered a lot of 0.15 and 0.2 amounts) so ratios will factor more into if these amounts verify than it usually does. It's a work in progress, it took me awhile enter the points. But I can use this and improve on it for future events.
  2. All the way down to 11F here currently. I'm going to be trying out a new way to do a snow map that'll I'll be posting here in a bit once I get a final look at the models and stuff entered in.
  3. CTP did issue advisories for their southwestern counties of Cambria, Somerset,Blair, Bedford, and Fulton for 2-4 inches. I'm not sure why they wouldn't for the Sus Valley if their map suggests the same types of amounts. Philly has advisories all the way to Allentown despite them showing a CWA wide 1-2 inches in their realm (probably issuing for impact purposes with rush hour timing over amounts). LWX has lower thresholds in their CWA.
  4. Advisory start time looks pretty good when comparing to the early looks from the HRRR and RAP, which have precip entering the central counties around 2-3 am. Precip gets to IPT around 5am-ish. Model runs yesterday shifted this weak system a bit to the south of where it had been, focusing the axis of heavier snows more on the southern tier. In fact, it's looking like the stuff that might've been capable of delivering a stripe of scattered 4-6 inch amounts thru the middle of the state is going to go into the western MD/West VA ridges to die. The air mass had trended colder on the models and thus pressed this south a bit. I think advisory placement is OK although it's weird their map continues the 2-4 in the Sus Valley if they decided not to put advisories. 1-2 might end up being the better bet in that area anyways since it currently appears the precip with the best rates might skirt or stay south and downsloping may come into play a bit. Otherwise, the rest of the area save for possibly the extreme northern tier should see a T-2 event. While this should be a high ratio event (at least a 14-15:1), I think we may be missing the good lift (very weak system) and slightly too cold aloft in the snow growth zone to get the optimum setup for the 20:1+ stuff. Exceptions to this would be the Laurels region, as the extra lift generated from the orographic forcing could offer up better rates and ratios. Some very high parts of Somerset and southern Cambria County might sneak a 5-6" amount.
  5. Well in honor of our shot at the first clipper of the season, had to go on a hunt and dig this gem out from last winter, haha.
  6. Still around 35 degrees at this hour, and our driveway still looks like this:
  7. Low level cold has continued to hold fast around here early this morning with temps still hovering around 33-34. While ice accretions on the trees and cars have been long gone since early Sat Eve.. the frozen ground continues to hold ice. Our gravel driveway is a broken tailbone waiting to happen. Also, since our township has seemed to treat this event on a part-time basis, there's still slush covering the township road by our house from the much earlier sleet and ice and some of the normally shady spots have in fact glazed back over creating a very treacherous roadway. Hopefully can get some warm air mixed down pretty soon. Models continue to be steadfast on the Tuesday clipper, with some slight variations...but overall trying to put a swath of snow across the state. New 03z SREF plumes are pretty bullish with means of 4-5 inches in places like Pit (4ish), JST (5-ish), AOO (4.2" ish), and UNV (5-ish). AVP also was around a 4 inch mean as well. Sus Valley had means around 2 inches. I'd imagine they're calculating some pretty high SLRs. I do currently like most of the western 2/3rds of PA as well as NE PA for a 2-4" type (more than that in Laurels) event with 1-2 in the Sus Valley as well as along the MD border. Will be continuing to zero in on the axis of potentially more moderate snowfall as this gets more into the short range.
  8. I've been laying out my thoughts here and there pretty extensively the last couple days. Folks should def watch out for a several hour period of messy weather on the front end of this storm today if they're out and about. These sneaky ice events causing havoc on the roadways has been something this winter has done pretty effectively so far.. and I expect initial issues before it warms up later this after noon and tonight. The local PennDOT around here already put down pretreatment on the roads.. so that's a plus. I wouldn't sleep on the Tuesday clipper that continues to be on all the computer models and delivers a statewide light (to perhaps moderate in places) snowfall across the state. I mean it is okay to discuss this guys haha. We're not talking a triple phaser at 210 hours or something. This is a northern branch wave inside 84 hours now.. with one hell of a cold shot behind it. We can probably uncancel winter for this coming week. The cold in place prior would promise a high ratio event so it would only take a 2 or 3 tenths to put an advisory swath across a good part of PA. If the wave digs and is potent enough, this can maintain across the Sus Valley too. Might only be a couple inches.. but gotta start somewhere don't you? Like I mentioned in my previous post, the track will prove to be important. If it doesn't dive enough and cuts more into NY, then snows might only get into western PA and not get off the mountains. Through or just under PA would help to maintain the swath all the way across.
  9. Might have to watch for icing issues in the central third of the state Saturday in the initial stages of our latest cutter to affect PA. How long will depend on how long the high to the north holds out as it's progged to be fairly strong (1040ish). I would expect winter wx and/or freezing rain advisories in the JST-AOO-UNV-IPT corridor as well as north central counties. Wouldn't be surprised to see a more extensive ZR event unfold in more localized fashion either in the eastern edge of the Laurels region or in the north central. Just seems like there's potential for some 31-32ºF temps to hang on for awhile in the usual vulnerable icing areas. Either way its likely to be a very cold rain for most of the rest of the event east of the Alleghenies as it'll remained dammed up. Focus then turns toward the middle of next week as cold resets and we go on Clipper watch. GFS and Euro both have had a northern stream wave affecting the area in the Tues-Wed timeframe. GFS more impressive with QPF attm, but wouldn't take much precip with the cold air available to deliver a state wide few to several inches if we can get a well tracked system. This is the type that everyone including western PA can have a good event out of, but the low has to track over or just under PA. Either way, hopefully something puts some white on the ground by that point.. cuz it looks very cold later next week. Today's Euro in fact drives sub 490 thickness and less than -25ºC 850 temps into all of PA near the Thurs timeframe. That's getting comparable to last winters stuff if that were to come to fruition.
  10. I get as bummed out as the next snow lover when we get into funks like this, but at the end of the day mother nature does what she does and you can't really do anything about it. Last winter would have and will be hard to replicate from a consistent cold standpoint. It got cold in mid-late November last winter and that basic pattern largely persevered into March with a steady dose of decent snow/ice events for us in Jan/Feb, before the Mid-Altantic cashed in during March at our expense with a buried storm track. It just hasn't worked out that way thus far this winter, although as I said a couple posts ago.. we had a quick start and an early event right before Thanksgiving as well as the cut-off storm that probably kept a big torch at bay from the northeast pretty much that whole week. It's very hard to pinpoint any one reason as the smoking gun to our lackluster start, especially if you want to compare to last winter. If one looks at the usual teleconnections there generally isn't a big difference between them so far save for the EPO going more positive during this December (there was a leveling off period from being negative last December too) coinciding with the west coast and California in particular getting hammered with storms. Basically this year has seemed to act a little more like one would expect in the east with a +NAO/AO and is also a lesson in the index numerical value not telling the whole story. The MJO could be having more influence this year than it did last year.. it's currently residing in phase 4 (near phase 5) and forecast by most guidance to generally head into phase 5 at some magnitude. That happens to be the general region where the Asian Air plane is missing and has had alot of convection affecting the search area. At any rate, phases 4-6 are crappy phases for the eastern continental US that very highly correlate to a torched east coast.. or at the very least persistent SE ridging. It had already took a lap through 4-6 in early December. Could be why the El nino has been "acting like a Nina" as I have seen alluded to in other posts. We didn't have much MJO influence at all last winter from what I can recall (spent alot of time in the circle). Just another part of the puzzle, but a piece that might be having some say right now. I've also saw the highly -QBO referenced as well, and i'll be the first to admit i'm not very well versed on that teleconnection.. but a look through of previous years doesn't really show me anything definitive IMO. The nearest Nov/Dec with values near where we have them this year was 2005, which was a fairly snowy month. Conversely, there were some crappy winters (94-95, 01-02, Dec 06, etc) that had low negative or positive values. Like I've mentioned in my post the other day, I still see positives going forward. We do have some very cold air on our side of the world up in Canada to be tapped and we will be pretty chilly this week and the cold looks to remain available. Just gotta work on getting some storms.. and I think we will eventually be OK as we get into deep winter. Speaking of cold, I saw you mention about the SSW and its heavy mentioning. My comment on that is that a SSW correlates well to dumping cold air on the mid-latitudes.. it just doesn't necessarily mean the east coast can have the front row seat for it. Could be in our neck of the woods or could be Asia or Europe. But anyways, we still have plenty of time and I've seen worse starts in our region.
  11. Your welcome, I also should have added the disclaimer about the models being consistently inconsistent with things and making the mid range very difficult to deal with. The last few runs of the Euro have traded off the amplified storm to the lakes for a more progressive and more unphased southern wave that kicks out underneath PA while having more of a broader area of higher heights across the western states vs an anchored highly amplified ridge off the west coast. The 0z run the other night put PA in position for a decent size snow/mix event, while the last couple runs have been much weaker with the southern wave and keeping the brunt of precip south. The GFS has been maintaining a lakes cutter and today's Canadian has a low to the lakes with an attempted miller-B evolution. I don't have access to the fabled ||GFS but I think it had a pretty snowy solution last night for the Mid Atlantic and us (saw a snowmap over in the mid-atl thread). At any rate, the models have a plethora of options for this potential weekend system now. I think we are still pretty vulnerable for a cutter if the northern stream gets involved too much. But a storm that cuts might still cause some freezing issues in portions of the region on the front end anyways as the low level cold probably hangs tough like it almost always does. This could end up being a sneaky event.
  12. Hope everyone had a good Christmas. Well, the latter half of this month has been frustrating for winter weather lovers. I do see some positives going forward towards New Years and beyond. Cold air will return this week with a fairly decent shot making it into the commonwealth around mid week as a monster high (1056mb progged on Euro) drops into the north-central and Inter-Mountain West parts of the US. Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty cold this coming week before modifying some late week. In terms of the bigger picture, significant arctic cold is going to be back on the playing field in Canada to be tapped down after being absent for a good portion of December. Driving this is a significant -EPO ridge in the East Pacific. However, this ridge axis has been progged too far west (creating a solidly -PNA) and that combined with a forecast +NAO is going to continue to leave us in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast very vulnerable for cutters, while the brunt of the cold dumps into the west and central parts of the country. And one can see this on the models as the GFS and Euro both have been pretty insistent on a GLC around next weekend's timeframe. Given the pattern alignment, it's a pretty good likelihood that we're going to have to take yet another lakes cutter to the face. Afterwards it's hard to say what will happen.. last nights Euro after the cutter started bringing the Pac ridge into the West Coast states helping to push away the SE ridge and put us in a better storm track position. I do think we will eventually get some production in the snow department but it might be a work in progress for the first week or so of Jan. Our fast out of the gate start to winter back in November and the couple snow events we did have in a good part of our region has kept actual snow departures pretty manageable if not near average in the case of say..IPT. The places that likely have the biggest snow departures at the moment are in the Laurel Highlands region, where they have had very little in the way of actual lake effect/terrain enhanced events so far. When we did have the major cold air in place back in November, the more westerly to WSW oriented flow kept the big snows in the NW and most notably Buffalo of course.
  13. We succeeded without blocking via the NAO last winter with major Pacific assistance (a positive PNA and strongly -EPO). This support hasn't been prevalent especially this month specifically with the EPO, which went more positive after being strongly negative for a good portion of November...taking the cold air in Canada away. I personally think the EPO at a notable + or - value has a greater say about the sensible weather in our region than the NAO. The PNA has remained positive for the most part (and very much so the week of the cutoff storm), but our cold air has been significantly limited and thus we've been given some very marginal storms despite some decently tracked ones. Teleconnection forecasts have looked more tempered the last couple days, with PNA, EPO, and NAO looking more neutral than anything instead of the NAO and EPO making a decided dive into negative territory. Thus, we might end up with a slower progression of cold air towards us and the boundary line between some snow events and more rainy misery being very close to our region.
  14. I would hope you'd think that haha, you and pawatch are probably leading the way in our sub forum in the snowfall department so far. I'm currently at 7.6" for the year and looking back at our previous thread you said you had 7.8" from the Nov 26th storm alone. I've certainly seen worse starts to winter around here, 06-07 comes to mind with its completely DOA start. All things considered we've actually done pretty well considering the pattern we've been given this month. The monster cut off storm that stuck around all of last week likely prevented a major warm up from getting into the northeast, all while delivering advisory snows in a good bit of the central counties with that bullseye of 6-12" in east-central PA. But yea the generally mild December has kept any bouts of snow from sticking around very long despite a few opportunities, while otherwise getting a couple of mainly rainers.. typical of an el nino pattern without the NAO/EPO support. If your going to unleash a dominant active subtropical jet, you better have the favorable pattern in place to get snow.. else you get rained on. Just ask our Mid-Atlantic friends. NAO and EPO are forecast to tank especially once we get to the new year, indicative of the over the top ridging that is shown on heavy-wx's analogs he showed as well as on the actual computer model forecasts. That would help deliver cold air that has been absent from the lower 48 and a more favorable storm track. Wow the rare storm that would make everyone in PA happy haha.
  15. The way the storm is progged to track today on the 12z guidance would suggest to me a definite severe weather threat involved with this but probably mainly for the deep south and southeastern states. Dynamics are definitely there, the 850 winds progged on the Euro are insane (~50-70kts). As I said earlier the GFS would probably keep us out of the warm sector and the Euros farther west track probably opens the door for the south central and Sus Valley to get into it. A closer look at the Euro products does send CAPEs of a couple hundred j/kg into south central & eastern PA. CAPE of any value in PA is pretty uncommon in December (or any other winter month) so certainly that coupled with the tremendous dynamics could suggest a squall line with damaging winds getting into those aforementioned areas of PA with a frontal passage. I'm only talking these fine details of the models at this range just to explain to you what it showing of course. Otherwise in terms of track and details the only thing I'm looking at seriously at this juncture is the fact that the GFS and European guidance are suggesting a big time amplification of the pattern in this timeframe. Hypothetically, we could end up more progressive with the trof axis further east, or just a bit of a weaker storm in general, and then suddenly we're talking about a big snowstorm.. certainly not out of the realm of possibility since we've generally been running fairly progressive this winter. The amplification on these models right now is really pretty crazy to begin with, CTP stated on their disco that they're progging record low pressures.
  16. We wouldn't bust into the warm sector on the 12z GFS solution, parts of our region (likely south-central/Sus Valley) probably would on the new 12z Euro's. Both solutions are a heavy rain to snow on the tail end type deal followed by the usual LES & upslope snow showers/squalls regime.
  17. Barring some kind of insane shift in guidance the prospect of anything big from this has waned. It just doesn't appear we are going to get the amplification necessary to bring a moderate to heavy event into our area. However, I think we still stand a chance of a lighter event (more of a 1-2" type deal) if we end up with an expansive enough precip shield and enough punch left from what currently looks to be a fading southern stream wave on the way out. Speaking of insane, the GFS has joined the Euro in losing it's mind in the period right near Christmas. If there's one thing the GFS is somewhat competent at forecasting more than 2 days in advance, it's a good old fashioned GLC. The 12z run has the deep low over PA (ala yesterdays 12z Euro) maturing into a 960mb in the northern lakes region. If the Euro is the one in the bunch that has been prone to overamping systems as of late I'd love to see what that's gonna look like in an hour. Details aside, there has been a strong signal from both the Euro and GFS of some kind of a significant amplification in the pattern in that period, and probably the return of actual cold air to the US.
  18. Holy lord the Euro loses a storm with 4-5 days to go and Mid-Atlantic looked unreadable last night.. actually after looking more closely at posts I saw a big reason why. Anyways, I've seen this song and dance before with these split flow systems in the mid-range where they go flat and play possum til it gets near the short range. Not saying that it comes back every time, but there's no way I'm throwing out the storm possibility this weekend at this moment. As was mentioned yesterday, the features at play to make or break the storm are yet on the playing field in terms of being sampled well. And northern stream interaction figures to be an important part of getting this storm to be more potent and track more up along the coast. Otherwise, there has been and continues to be good model agreement on development of the southern stream wave in the Gulf, so we will have to see where things take us the next couple days.
  19. Yep 0z Euro is another big hit..this time primarily for all of PA under I-80 (includes the western PA gang). Tracks a lot flatter than 12z. 850 temps are pretty marginal, would need to see some more details here in a bit to see if there's any mixing issues anywhere. This pretty much would continue our theme of very marginal temp events so far this winter. GFS has it too, but a good bit weaker and actually warmer thermally than the Euro. At any rate, the Euro solution is pretty December '09-ish. I like that December '09 analog but I think if any eventual southern stream system does come out of this in that fashion it will be a warmer version of that event. Still generally a +NAO/AO forecast going forward (though trending toward neutral near storm time frame) limiting cold air availability and probably limiting how far south this thing will actually stay if it gets wound up the way the Euro has it. I'd be wary of the trend back north later this week with this one, but at the same time.. I like the chances that some portion of our region gets a good event.
  20. Wow that 0z run was a thing of beauty for basically everyone in PA. But like all things at 180 hours, we must take specifics with a grain of salt. With that said, the Euro has consistently had a system in this December 20-22 timeframe pretty much since that timeframe has gotten in range. Can't really argue too much about the Euro's track record so far this season either, as it has been fairly decent at sniffing things out first. The GFS also has this system as well but weaker than the Euro.. but it's there (for now). I like the look of the pattern once the weak low on Tuesday washes out across the lower Lakes and brings back generally seasonal air. There still won't be a lot of cold back in the pattern yet, but there should be enough available that if we get a well tracked system from what should be an active southern branch.. it could deliver a sizable winter weather event.
  21. Have about 2 inches so far, mainly from last night and this morning. Technically the event total here is 2.6" (had 0.6" from the initial wave Mon night). Will have to see if the band of snow can strengthen enough to come back off the Allegheny front and give some additional snow here. Figures that CCX radar has been out. This has ended up being a pretty nice surprise for our region. In other news, Euro might be starting to sniff out our next bigger event out in the longer term. Last couple runs have had a pretty sizable southern stream system toward the end of it's range.
  22. So it DOES precipitate in Tamaqua? Haha. I was wondering how you were doing, I-81 from the I-78 junction all the way up through WB-Scranton has looked like a pretty rough drive on the 511 cameras all evening.
  23. Somewhere between a half inch to an inch here, hard to tell with the gusty winds we've been having. Looks like the Williamsport gang's getting hit pretty good.
  24. One look at this radar loop should tell you why we wanted this storm to close off and stall further southwest than it did for PA to get the good snows. With that said, the CCX radar doesn't actually look too bad. It's weird having to check BGM and BUF radars to see what is "upstream" from us. Expect more sporadic bouts of snow the farther south in PA one goes. Further north above I-80, and especially once to the US 6 corridor is where we will see more consistent snowfall. The Laurels and NW mountains will get into the action as well as the NW flow picks up a bit of lake enhancement and especially orographic forcing. Might have to watch for areas of enhanced amounts in those areas and adjacent central counties as some of these bands eventually spin southwest enough to pick up the influence of said lakes and orographic forcing.