BooneWX

For what it’s worth, GSP increased my ice totals by another tenth of an inch. The forecast previously called for up to .2 inches but now it’s .3

I do believe we’re going to manage to have a few hours of radiational cooling here in the central foothills at this pace. No high clouds on the horizon yet.

Really irks me how close this storm was to being a big deal. If that high had just anchored to our north, we’d be dusting off the sleds. I hope and remain optimistic that things will change soon. If there’s a bright side, at least we’ve discussed wintry opportunities this week, which is a nice change from tracking 60 degree rainstorms (ignore next Tuesday in that assessment lol)

As hard as it’s going to be, there’s zero point in looking at ensembles, operationals or anything of the such past 5 days. This whole week has been an absolute windshield wiper effect. We’ve bounced between extreme cold, seasonal cold and slightly above average every single day this week. I’m not sure why the models continue to be this unreliable and crappy but I truly think none of them have any sort of inkling of a clue as to what will happen beyond day 5. im as depressed as anyone about the outlook but let’s be honest: this Saturday wasn’t too far from being a biggie. If that high would have anchored, we’d be looking at a major winter storm from e tn, through the upstate, western nc, Virginia and NC piedmont.

As someone that grew up in the area, I second what @olafminesawsaid. I’d also recommend considering Doughton Park, the Stone Mtn area or Ennice. All do really well in these CAD escarpment events.

Easy to find the escarpment and South Mtn range

18z NAM and RDPS seem wildly different at first glance. The NAM which probably has the more sensible solution has a more pronounced low west of the apps making it to almost the Holston River before transferring. The RDPS has nothing similar. It’s showing no lower pressure area cutting and a more miller A type of setup. Obviously this is why the RDPS is likely overdone and showing absurd amounts.

the windshield wiper effect on the models continued overnight and now we’re back to a cold look and likely our best look in a while mid-month. Still plenty left to have hope for.

The Canadian will run soon. Let’s see if it doubles down or starts to come in line with the NAM.

Noticeable uptick from 6z as well. Quarter inch amounts in the previous cycle were very limited.

The Canadian temps are noticeably colder than pretty much all of the other guidance. Not saying it can’t be right but it has KHKY barely cresting above freezing at all, before crashing again as moisture exits. I’m not sure how much I believe that evolution. I’ve lived in the foothills most of my life and I’ve rarely seen similar setups last more than 6 ish hours. If you don’t have that steady fetch of cold air, the whole process is a ticking clock.

Now THAT is a wedge. I have no clue where the high is positioned but those isobars scream damaging ice potential.

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1742610959229755620?s=46

I need to print some “I hate the Pacific” t-shirts. I’d make a killing with our group and the Mid Atlantic crew.

Also the returns are blossoming in Alabama at this hour. Model miss??

We’re not out on Tuesday yet. That storm is making big trends south and now that high doesn’t look quite as transient.

A few hundredths of an inch of accretion from western Cleveland/Rutherford, up through the rest of the foothills into lower Va. a tenth in the mts

Am I remembering correctly that the Canadian models typically have a cold bias? I know the NAM does, but I feel like the Canadian suite does this sort of ice storm bell-ringing pretty often. Fram says no issues Saturday.

The precipitation is getting lighter and lighter as well with each model suite. That doesn’t bode well for trees and power lines.

Well I don’t care where we discuss things as long as the HOT LIGHT IS ON THE THREAD LIKE A KRISPY KREME AFTER 12Z

LETS GET IT ROLLING. I WANT THE HOT LIGHT ON AFTER 12Z LIKE WERE RUNNING A DADGUM KRISPY KREME

I pay attention about as well as my wife says I do.

If 12z comes in the same, I do vote we start a thread tho. Ya know… always good practice anyways

Yea I’m a bit skeptical unless the low can continue trending weaker. I’ve almost never seen an in-situ CAD produce anything more than maybe a tenth of an inch of ice. Dew points rarely verify on the low end of the scale in these events. I’m fine with all of that. If it’s not snow or even sleet, I’m not interested anyways. Nothing good about freezing rain.