BlunderStorm

Good to know that new break in MRX radar isn't dry. Was worried you and John were about to get cut again. I'm finally in the old dry slot but it's been consistent light snow since the first moderate wave passed.

It's not too often you glance at an NWS hazard map and get greeted with a solid wall of pink WSW.

It's been 2 hours since things got started, I've thus far measured an inch of new snowfall. Temps holding steady at 23F with a dp of 20.

I'm not far behind up here. The road is officially white and we've got nickels and dimes now!

THE HAMMER HAS DROPPED. We're nearly 2 hours ahead of schedule. The ceiling fell fast with column saturating quick starting with moderate rates and small flakes. It is currently 23F with a dp of 18.

The calm before the storm... As things stand at 11 the current snowpack stands at 3 inches. Temps have shot up to a more reasonable 21F at 73% humidity.

I imagine the purpose of this thread today is Nowcasting and weather model verification.

Starting off today overcast at a frigid 11F this morning with 81% humidity. Things are primed for this afternoon.

Wow looks like Blacksburg read my post, they specifically added Tazewell and Smyth counties along with the blue ridge counties. In all seriousness I am glad they are treating this system seriously.

Now, if only NWS Blacksburg would be willing to include Tazewell and Smyth counties in a WSW... The microclimates usually shift crossing between the Tennessee and New River valleys.

The 6z Ukie 10:1 looks good staying true to its prior run but leaves some to be desired for SWVA folks. The 9z RAP meanwhile was perfect for SWVA but left Chatty and some other eastern valley locations a bit sketchy.

GFS sticks to its guns and ups totals slightly.

6z GFS rolling

I actually like the 6z RGEM solution, no one walks away with the jackpot but everyone in or adjacent to Tennessee walks home with something appreciable. The ICON tells a similar story but with a Bristol Bullseye and generally higher QPF!

The NAM seems determined to transform the slider into an app runner before transferring to the atlantic running in conflict with the globals and other mid to short range model solutions. Appreciable ice accumulation would be a concern through effectively all of the eastern valley, especially those counties flanking the blue ridge. It would be a hell of a coup no one is rooting for. Echoing fountainguy it does seem somewhat more favorable for the east from the added moisture though central and western TN see a modest decline in snowfall (yall are looking great regardless rn).

It has been a decade since I have witnessed such continuous snowfall in Winter. If flurries persist into tomorrow afternoon there will not have been a clear day between the storm on the 5th and the upcoming one on the 10th. There is no rationale but the conditions feel perfect for a big one. The ground is in prime condition with primary roads intermittently turning white within moments of a modest snow shower passing.

Yeah, I'll take the flakes with near 100% insurance of all snow but its slimmer pickings north of the primary axis of precip. We gotta hope for the light and fluffy high ratio stuff.

Tropical tidbits snowfall maps fail to account for sleet and freezing rain when depicting snow accumulation. The GFS is depicting quite the mess down there.

Earlier, I took a predawn jebwalk to appreciate the snowfall and wake myself up. The atmosphere was surreal. Like the rest of yall in the eastern valley we've been seeing on and off light snow showers since the system passed through a couple days ago. It's refreshing to see persistent fields of white with how last winter played out.

As of midnight it's back down to 23 and I've recorded an additional 1.1 inches of fluffy snow. Intermittent snow showers and flurries are continuing to fall. Temperatures never exceeded 38 so the initial snowpack managed to survive the thaw and cold rain transforming into a sort of half ice half snow concrete an inch or two deep. The weekend slider however it may playout is going to have a perfect surface to start accumulating with forecast temps staying below freezing for the week.

We've got about a quarter inch of ice accumulation on most surfaces. The temperature is currently hovering at 32F with the snowpack from earlier holding steady for now. Zr is mostly light but we had a few more moderate bands pass through.

Us southwest Virginians are honorary Tennessee Valley members . I always saw the sub forum boundaries like this:

aaaaand just like that after a few hours I am standing at an approximate snow depth of 4.5" and it's a light drizzle at 28. The atmospheric column must be wild. The only saving grace is that the rain is light and any higher rates would probably be snow again (for now)

After 30 minutes of virga, from 11am and onward it has been absolutely ripping perfect heavy nickel and dime snowfall at over an inch per hour. It aint gonna last but my goodness is it a beautiful sight.

ETSU an hour ago: About half an inch remains from the first burst of snow in the grass. Will be interesting to see how the snow handles the toasty ground for the rest of the night.