BlunderStorm

Snow is coming down at a moderate rate and the ground is turning white. Currently 32.

Watching the models over the past few days the thorn in everyone's sides has been the temperatures. I don't get it... It seems like no matter how favorable the set-up is the model operationals are hell-bent  on staying above freezing. This isn't just an issue south of I-40... it affects everyone west of the eastern continental divide. It falls into the fear of being locked at 34 degrees for 48 hours straight watching WNC get plastered. Well disregarding my grumbling about that it can't take away what I'm seeing right now and I'm sure you all have had to tolerate countless near misses. As we get closer the operationals will become what we primarily rely on and right now the inner weenie in me wants to hang on to the ensemble means for dear life. Hey at least the Euro has consistently been in my favor up here.

1 minute ago, AndyHamachek said:

We are supposed to go to pigeon forge Friday night and leave Sunday morning and head back to Athens georgia what and when is it supposed to do anything??? Sorry if not allowed 

Your questions are welcome this is what this thread is for. There is certainly the possibility of some snow down the eastern valley after the storm starts to head NE up the coast. Nothing is set in stone but if a quick changeover happened you could have a rough drive home. Regardless your trip is going to be cold and wet (think 37 in a downpour). If you attempt to visit the Smokies  you will almost certainly be met with Heavy snowfall as the road through Newfound Gap goes over 5000ft in elevation. I would not recommend visiting Cherokee, NC from Pigeon Forge.

I'm not sure if this would break any rules but he could simply use the snip tool and grab that image.

2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Get an error message could just be me...

Today's flurries are only adding to my excitement. It's like the appetizer before the main course. I'm trying to keep my expectations down but significant snow is starting to become expected. I say that cautiously of course!  EDIT: Sorry wrong thread... my mind was still running on yesterday! 

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Just saw the max 41.7",where is that?

Probably Mount Mitchell...look at the shading there. Someday I'm going to throw myself into one of those storms at a highly favorable spot.

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Yeah, it's still going on further frames

I gotta see how this concludes...WOW!

This morning we've had a few intermittent bursts of snow. It's 33 but that hasn't stopped a light dusting from accumulating. 

Snow depth at peak extent among models on weather.us

German 0z 

GFS 0z

ECMWF 0z

Outside of the NE portion it's not looking good for the Tennessee Valley atm. Models are starting to carry a little more weight. As for myself I'm feeling pretty excited! I'd say we should probably start up a thread tomorrow if were still looking good on 06z.

37 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The FVS is hanging in for 40 and north basically. I won't bother with the crazy tropical map that puts down 2 feet of snow right on top of me. But the snow depth looks like a reasonable compromise.

I would take that in a heartbeat and cash out til January with that look. That's a solid 10".

I'm keeping a sharp eye out for flurries tonight. If there is as much as flurry for a brief minute I want to make sure I mark that day down for a trace especially before midnight. As of now still a tad too warm at 36. UPDATE: and... just 20 mins later boom flurries falling yahoo!

Tonight the ICON took another step in the right direction. Hopefully this is the story for the whole model suite.

So essentially the source for our cold is limited and the low in some runs is shown as being too strong. In other words we have a juggling act. The drop in annual snowfall for Knoxville in the past 40 years was really eye opening, thanks for that tidbit of info. 

10 minutes ago, IndTenn said:

The Eastman snow shield is operational

Ahh, the good ole Kingsport Snow Hole of Approval as I call it. 

Regarding this weekends storm system. I understand the high in the midwest is crucial to CAA resulting in snow as the low supporting precipitation slides under it. However as pressure rises precipitation is less encouraged and is generally lighter. On the 12z GFS the storm was suppressed to the south resulting in no snow at all here. On the other hand for the 18z GFS the high pressure was weakened and as a result I was projected with precipitation except the temperatures were too mild to support snowfall for a majority of the storm. So in a nutshell what I'm saying is how do you get the cold and the moisture together dang it?! 

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

....And if you need a pick-me-up, the Weeklies(hindcast version) look really, really....really good.  Slight warm-up and quick return to winter by the holidays.  

Good news to hear for a shot at a white Christmas. Also, I had just read through the euro ensemble members this time around and counted 30-32 out of the 50 members that supported a winter storm warning in my county. That makes an improvement of 5-8 members since 24 hours ago. I can't comment on last nights ensemble members as I didn't count them. As for how that applies to you all I really can't say without recounting all of the members in the specific spot. To state the obvious and already mentioned for emphasis I hope we don't see the trend between 12z and 18z continue.

31 minutes ago, Drummer230 said:

Hi, I just moved to Clarksville from DC. What kind of winters can I expect around here? The mid Atlantic is full of heartbreak and despair with a few jackpots now and then. I imagine this area is much the same but with smaller snowfall amounts? Looking forward to following along here. 

Not from Mid-Tennessee either but welcome to the Tennessee Valley! Here is some climate information for Clarksville, TN. https://www.weather-us.com/en/tennessee-usa/clarksville-climate

The 12z ICON just isn't quite there to support a winter storm for us but notably takes a step in the right direction giving us some snow as the system leaves. Last night where it had the 540 line around Chicago it now has it along the Ohio River for Sunday.

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Looking for a couple things this morning, still 6 days out. Need vort max to track south of here. Need high press (HP) north anchored and still spilling in somewhat. I am less worried about the surface low which looks good. 

First the 500 mb vort max should track to our south for snow. Right overhead is not good enough, especially this case. If HP is very strong, anchoring cold, and the vort max goes overhead, WAA may cause ice. That's like in Ferris Bueller where faking a fever lands you in the doctor's office. Wrong outcome, lol!

Next HP has to be firmly anchored in the right place, and even still building in. Agree 100% with John's snapshot above. Also I'm looking for HP/cold to keep spilling in from the Plains and Midwest. Down the East Coast won't work here, though the Carolinas love it. You can almost feel the right pattern on the good model runs; isobars and thickness lines are packed tight - all wound up and energetic. Reverse is true on bad model runs with HP already starting to retreat with loose isobars/thickness lines. HP must anchor very firmly, especially this case. Midwest / OV air is not particularly cold or dry, so evaporative cooling will only be a slight help. Again HP/cold still spilling in (not retreating) would make it all work out.

I mention the surface low pressure (LP) looks good. LP has been shown well south consistently across model runs (NWP). I would call it safely south, from a pro-snow perspective.

In conclusion, the concern is the temperature profile. Gee, what's new down South? 500 mb vort max should be south to take care of the mid-levels. HP should firmly hold, and continue to supply low level cold. Both will depend on confluence (of the jet branches) location and timing, per previous page. Quick check: 500 mb vort max and surface HP look & feel.

Finally, I think somebody in the sub-forum Region will get it. Odds are best I-40 north IMO. Perhaps even Kentucky, but NWP verbatim is I-40. Most of my pessimism / nit-picking is to get it into MSL-HSV-CHA, always a huge chore.

Nice write up Jeff, I think it sums up a lot about what we need to keep an eye for the couple of days. A lot is hinged on the High.

Tonight's Euro isn't much in west Tennessee but increasingly gets better the further east you go especially north of I-40 until eventually you get up into my neck of the woods. In total it showed 21-24 inches after 33 hours of consistent moderate snowfall with no hat tricks at any point before during or after. I can dream.

I don't care what anyone says last year was a white Christmas! Sure it may have only been a light dusting... but who cares SNOW!

49 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

We have to many winter threads going,can we lock one up ? or not post on it no more,confusing where to post things at

Yeah, either we keep the old one up and run it til winter ends or we use the monthly one and create a new one each month. Personally I like sticking to one thread all winter but we have been focused on the December Thread so I don't know.

Today's high was 66. As of now it is 59 with sustained 10 mph winds from the southwest.

24 out of 50 give or take a few of the 12z ensemble members are winter storm material for me. The minor event preceding it makes it hard to determine if 4 inches falls or not.

5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

The algorithms on weather us site must be goofy, cause if not the Euro just told the FV3 "hold my beer, watch this" lol. 

I dunno it showed persistent heavy snowfall for 48 hours in northern SC.