BlunderStorm

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

No idea what happened.  He said that he had a short version and a long version.  I will go check on FB and see if he noted the issue.

Him forecasting 200% seasonal snowfall in the eastern valley is a bold prediction. I mean I understand the teleconnections are seemingly very favorable but 200% just seems too good to be true. I have no holes to poke into his argument, it's just the result. For goodness sake even NOAA's seasonal outlook is EC and that's saying something.

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I'm actually a little interested in this period now. No joke. After the bigger storm late next week, both operational GFS and Euro show energy trying to dig in almost immediately afterwards early the week of the the 12th. This energy is riding down on the trough carved out by the two larger storms this week.  Way to far out for any details or much hope, but the possibility of a storm spinning up after a couple of larger storms carve out a trough has my interest.  It's November, might as well get chasing muscles warmed up. 

0z Canadian has it too this AM. 

 

 

I'll keep an eye on this potential weather system for us during the weekend. If it's still showing it a week out I might treat as more of a possibility than a far off dream. Next Friday looks a little interesting too but it will probably be cold chasing rain.

The latest FV3-GFS depicts a Tennessee Valley winter fantasy near the end of its run...

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Not sure why this is so big.  Wind atop Leconte

It can be like that up there on any given day tbh. That footage reminds me of my first hike up Rogers.

As for here a peak is hard to define as all the trees seem to have different ideas but if I had to place it I would say it is probably since Monday til now.

Dynamic Cooling! Believe the hype! 

(not really I know this depicts cold air-advection)

It's good to see our sub-forum so lively this week. Especially today! 

4 hours ago, *Flash* said:

All right. So...this isn't Webber or Griteater level, but it's a start. Hoping most outside the forum who aren't as weather literate will be able to follow this.

Monthly breakdown vid/references can be found at the bottom of the post if you rather cut straight to the chase.

https://deepfryedmind.blogspot.com/2018/10/flash-weather-2018-19-winter-weather.html

Thank you Flash for your winter forecast presentation. I felt you made strong arguments for what the main drivers of winter would be this year and I can in fact say I was able to follow along. I could see people with little interest in weather struggling to understand it but I believe it hits my demographic of people with an interest in weather but with only cursory knowledge quite well.

Lacking extensive knowledge of the effects of SSTs in different parts of the oceans and how they affect our weather patterns is a part of the reason you see little traffic in this thread. I can easily give observations, dish out banter and fantasy storms, and even give a rudimentary opinion as to what to expect a few weeks in advance, but beyond that I feel I cannot create a coherent post of value in this thread so I sit in the background instead attempting to learn. In other words I am aware of my own ignorance about the topic so I restrain myself and when I do make a post outside of banter or observations I try my best. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

This continues, year after year, to be an underrated thread.  Some really great info in here.  Strong work!

If this were in November, north of I-40 we'd be in business right now... If that isn't a good clipper I don't know what is.

I enjoy some fall cold outbreaks but every once in a while it's nice to have a warm respite as long it's transient in nature. Bouncing off Carver and tnweathernut this isn't a summer death ridge this is a mid-day room temperature ridge. If the pattern does flip back for a while at least it will help build the snowpack on the Canadian prairie.

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

The GFS just cooked up a high mountain heavy snow event next week from basically a miller A system. Mostly confined to North Carolina but a few inches at Roan Mountain and those areas would be on tap.

If all the factors lined up right I could see the NC high country 3000ft+ and SWVA (in the New River Valley) having a surprise snow event on their hands. The GFS kept that into the 6z run. I can certainly see the possibility of a late October snowstorm in the interior NE.

Low of 27 here.

The low this morning was 35. No flakes to report for this event. It's certainly a beautiful morning and it seems like the trees become noticeably more colorful everyday.

2 hours ago, bearman said:

It is rocking at snowshoe tonight.   https://www.snowshoemtn.com/the-mountain/mountain-report/#/all-trails

Wow... As for here it's currently 49 with some sprinkling. Every few minutes a gust or two comes through around 15 to 20 mph with sustained around 10 then it mellows down to 5.

Update 1: Scratch that now I'm getting some 20+ gusts. I wonder what the mountain tops are gusting to.

Update 2: Cold front has arrived now it's 45 and falling fast. According to the weather station the feels like is 38.

Update 3: As of 11:30 it's 43 and the rapid fall in temperatures has slowed down. Winds are still sustained in the teens and it's sprinkling again. Ahh, I just love giving observations during cold fronts. Very few people are crazy enough to stand outside in a chilly breeze near midnight just for the heck of it. Welp time to head back in and warm up.

Update 4: After having gone ages without realizing it and feeling dumb because of it, I was an hour behind on my observations because I never set the time to daylight savings in March on my weather station.  12:52 A.M.- 8mph sustained winds from the northeast, 42F with 66% humidity, under partly cloudy skies.

Oh this by no means is wishcasting in my book. Wishcasting is model hugging a GFS fantasy blizzard at 300hrs and expecting it to occur in October just because the model didn't drop it immediately on the next run. (lol) I absolutely agree with your observation. We can only hope to see this a little further down the line in two months. It's always great to read your speculation and thoughts especially on the ENSO thread that are well beyond my insight and understanding. Anyway, hopefully the forum livens up soon with the change of seasons.

32 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Maybe wishcasting,but if you look at this setup with colder air in place later on, weeks ahead, this is a perfect setup for a  winter storm in the Valley.If you go back and look at the synoptics of past big storms in the Valley, you'll see quite a few storms that goes east which bring colder air wrapped around and LP develops somewhere around the Southern Plains/lower Ms Valley.No clue if it will happen but the ingredients would surely be possibly there later on.

This morning was the first frost of the season for me. Did any of you guys get to freezing? Here the temperature fell to 31F under clear skies. If Sunday does pan out I might send a pic or two.

Well I guess it's that time of year where I stay up late in search of the season's first snowflake for no good reason. I humored the idea of it on Saturday but I might have a small window of opportunity to see a flake or two fly Sunday morning after all.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/

I don't believe this site has been shared on this thread. It's especially useful for it's snow&ice cover map as an alternative to https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/  as well as having many other uses such as satellite imagery, NWS radar sites, and surface observations. You can thank Jax for finding it.

13 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Is there a good place for Northern Hemisphere snowcover maps? 

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nh_snowcover/

That site has been broken for a while. It directs to a page that says their security is improperly configured if I try to view any images, regardless of which browswer I use.

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2018&ui_day=287&ui_set=0 This is all I could find with a brief google search. It certainly isn't a good replacement for NOHRSC, I can say that much... Thankfully the National Snow Analyses page still works.

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Hey, you never know, Blacksburg NWS posted that Snowshoe, WV had its first flakes this AM. You are a lot further north than all of us Blunderstorm, so maybe not too far off:

 

When it comes down to NW flow latitude certainly matters but just as you all do I live in the valley as well and not on a northwest facing slope either. If I see a flurry or two perhaps Daniel, Kentucky, John and maybe just maybe the folks in the Tri-Cities will. My fingers are crossed for a repeat of October 29 last year as slim as that chance may be.

Hmm... no probably not... but still...

It reached 43 this morning a little warmer than I expected thanks to the same cloud cover windspeed mentioned but I'm not complaining. It's looking like it may not even reach 60!

Thursday, October 11, the day summer 2018 truly ended. Fall has at last finally arrived fashionably late and well received. Anyway, it is currently 52F and falling. To state the obvious I'm looking forward to some seasonable to below average  temps in the coming weeks and I'm sure you guys are too. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Well, you know it is bad when we are trying to convince the other that our own team doesn't have the mojo to win.  Just now saw the score for you all.  Well, the good thing about next Saturday is that one of our teams will get a W...Maybe one of our teams will look good doing it.

It would be ironic if neither team won and they simply tied.