BlunderStorm

I'm not sure if the convection is around the center of low pressure but there seems to be some impressive -80C cloud tops showing up on Goes 16 IR from the remnants of Kirk. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=12L&product=ir

14 hours ago, rescuedpup68 said:

It seems to be on a similar track as Isaac. And Isaac encountered a lot of shear. I am learning so please be patient... so has shear decreased?  Are environmental factors more favorable? 

Yeah, Kirk seems to mirror Isaac in a lot of ways. I didn't expect a lot of talk around this storm but should Kirk hang on for a while and in the unlikely chance he reaches favorable conditions this thread could really blow up. With the exception of Florence this year hasn't been very big for Cape Verde hurricanes. At least so far it hasn't... Anyway, conditions look pretty hostile right now for tropical development.

Well it's certainly good to be back! Anyway, it would seem we have some more activity in the tropics to monitor starting with Kirk.

310 
WTNT42 KNHC 221436
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

The area of low pressure located well south of the Cabo Verde
Islands now has a well-defined center and enough organized deep
convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity is set to 35 kt based on data from recent ASCAT passes
that showed an area of 30-35 kt winds northwest of the center.

Kirk will be moving over SSTs around 27C for the next 36 hours or
so with generally low shear, which should allow for some gradual
strengthening. After that time, the SSTs increase quickly along the
forecast track, but the SHIPS model and global model fields show the
vertical shear increasing, in part due to the very fast low-level
easterly flow. In addition, the GFS and ECMWF global models don't
show much development of the cyclone during the forecast period. As
a result of these factors, little change in strength is forecast
after 48 hours. The NHC forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid
through 48 hours and is near IVCN afterward.

The initial motion estimate is 280/12, but has the usual uncertainty
for a system in the early stages of development. The cyclone is
expected to be steered very quickly westward at low latitudes with
forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt over the next 72 hours to the south
of a mid-level ridge. Late in the period, some gain in latitude and
a slight decrease in forward speed are shown as a weakness in the
ridge develops to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The initial NHC
track forecast is close to HCCA and a little south of the TVCA
consensus, giving a little more weight to the GFS and ECMWF, which
lie on the south side of the track guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z  8.3N  23.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z  8.8N  25.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z  9.3N  29.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z  9.4N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z  9.6N  38.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 10.3N  46.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 11.0N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 12.5N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

FINALLY WE'RE BACK!

When it comes to personal endangerment I would argue that it should be up to the individual not the government as to if someone should head towards a life threatening situation. That is assuming they have a sound mind (as sane as someone heading towards a hurricane can be considered ), are a legal adult, and are not taking anyone else who is a minor or against their will. The person who heads towards said life threatening situation should not expect the immediate aid of first responders and know the risks heading towards the dangerous situation will entail.This is just my half of a cent's worth of an opinion I'm not well versed in whatsoever.  Immediately 4 types of people heading towards a storm pop into my mind. 1) People desperately attempting to convince their family members to leave or help leave. 2) Weather enthusiasts, weenies, and thrill seekers. 3) Those trying to take advantage of the disaster possibly participating in burglaries or other criminal activity. 4) Mere civilians who want to ride out the storm and help first responders and locals with the situation. If you disagree then state why you do. I have a feeling as soon as I submit this I'm going to get heavily criticized. 

I sure hope the loss of foliage is minimal. I'm looking forward to some good fall pics in a month.

This thread just seems to get worse every time I visit it. Why did we have to pull religion into this? WHY!? I'm sure politics is next...

Update: I was finally able to find the right size screw driver and take the weather station apart. Thankfully the rain gauge was just jammed and there were no electronics issues. So after a week of lost rainfall obs it's back to normal.

Now witness the observations of this fully calibrated and operational weather station! 

Today with the exception of the early morning it has been solidly overcast with no apparent rain. Unfortunately for me my weather station for whatever reason stopped taking rain totals a few days ago so I have no way of knowing how much rain I receive from Flo.

In less than a week I've recorded 3.5 inches of rain.  With the Clinch already up to it's banks rain is not something that would be appreciated at the moment. At least for folks around here we have high ground. I can't imagine being surrounded by water on all sides with the nearest land many football fields away like during storm surge and flooding in the tidewater. Of course with that said with elevation comes the risk of landslides. Still, I think we get the better of the deal by far. Anyway regarding Florence I and a bunch of others have been wondering as to why it has appeared so ragged on IR satellite.  Paying attention to the discussions on multiple threads it would seem shear is the most likely cause because the SST's would certainly support at least some marginal re-strengthening from my understanding. I've heard the idea of dry air intrusion passed around too but the source never really seems apparent. Right now the southern half of the storm pales in comparison to the northern side. Of course on the less positive side of things it would seem Florence has traded intensity for an increased wind field.

Well it looks like the NHC is doing a white lie keeping Florence officially at 140 mph. With a storm so threatening I'd fear lowering the wind speed would decrease public concern so I can see why they are bending the observations a little bit and more than likely with the pressure falling I'd say the storm will restrengthen to some extent. If the storm were to maintain the status quo and were still kept at 140 I'd have a problem with it however.

It's a shame the GFS is so inferior to the ECMWF these days. 

It would seem the GFS just can't decide exactly what it wants to do with Florence this run...  The GFS was notably west of where it was in previous runs.

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

It was in the main thread... I moved it here.  

Looks like you guys are keeping the standards high with this one. Probably not a bad idea considering Harvey and Irma were pretty messy at times.

15 minutes ago, hickory said:

Mods delete this if you want to. Look am not a meteorologist nor do I claim to be, but the consensus is getting clear. There is a constant east in the tracks. If the euro goes east again tonight then that's a sign. You have a powerful Hurricane that will tend to pull more to the north. Also given climo in perspective it wouldn't make landfall at all. Am looking at a cape lookout north landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if it just brushes the OBX and OTS. It's not making landfall in SC or south of cape lookout. You have to follow the trends and its east! Models will wobble back and forth every run, but look at the trend. I would bet $1000 doesn't make landfall west of cape lookout and am willing to put my honor and name to it. Rant over!

It's the banter thread your safe here. To be fair that probably would have passed on the main thread. Were running in unprecedented territory with this storm so will just have to find out. I'm not willing to take a more southwestern landfall off the table until the 0z Euro has a say in this and even then I would be far from certain.

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

We will never get through a major hurricane again without somebody mentioning annular.

Well, I mean what's wrong with mentioning annular hurricanes? This is a weather forum. People here like weather that is cool. Hurricanes look cool. ANNULAR hurricanes look even cooler. xD 

3 minutes ago, Tibet said:

Can anyone explain the reduction in banding that seems to be occurring on IR?

I'm not really qualified to answer this but if I had to guess it's probably the result of an eye wall replacement. Florence could very possibly transform into an annular hurricane. (EDIT) Got me there mempho! 

11 minutes ago, drexelkathy said:

I’m sorry you find it hard to have sympathy for people facing natural disasters.

It's not so much a lack of sympathy for their immediate situation but rather their loss of property when they knew the risks. I questioned how and why I felt this way myself and knew some would agree and others disagree. North Topsail is an exceptional example of this sentiment I have expressed. Most beach front property is certainly much safer than there. What gets to me is when these weather weenies wishcast for hurricanes to hit major metropolitan areas without any thought as to what the consequences of that would be if it were to actually occur. Looking at the NHC cone and the spaghetti models I would have never even entertained the thought of it hitting there if it were not for it appearing nearly inevitable. 

19 minutes ago, drexelkathy said:

It is a lot easier to make suppositions about what you would do then to make those decisions in real life.

personally?  I’m all about packing up and leaving at the mere sign of a landfall near me/us.  Property and things aren’t important to me.  

But it’s a hard sell to people that may have worked their entire lives for that little “slice” of their American dream. 

Anyone criticizing people that make tough choices has likely never faced it themselves.

I understand but it is just so hard for me to feel sympathy for those who chose to own land there. The people who my heart really goes out to is the children who have no decision in where they live or if they even evacuate and the first responders who put their lives on the line to help others in these terrible natural disasters. When people choose to own property there I hope they go in with the expectation their beach homes destruction is but only a matter of time and evacuate when that time comes. There is no worse tragedy than the loss of a life.

Just last month, I vacationed with family at North Topsail Island a little further down the island in the condos. When I walked up the island to find the sandbags I remembered thinking to myself (any year now...) I find it shocking that North Topsail at one point had dunes 100ft high as now the land sits barely above sea level! The entire community seems like a testament to humanity's arrogance. With Florence now looming it has got me thinking. If the North Topsail is inevitably going to be inundated with storm surge and Florence's landfall on the east coast is inevitable as well... Perhaps it should make landfall directly at North Topsail. When it comes to a major hurricane, deaths are likely inevitable but those who meet their fate on the coast will have nobody to blame but themselves. With Florence we have had days of forewarning leaving ample time for evacuation.  Perhaps then, if the community is destroyed the landowners will rebuild more responsibly or better yet not at all! Am I crazy for thinking this way or am I not alone?

On 8/30/2018 at 11:50 PM, BlunderStorm said:

Come on Potential Tropical Cyclone SIX! I'm counting on you to become Florence within 24 hours! Note: It's almost certainly a fish storm with some minor impacts on Cape Verde. I see nothing wrong in rooting for it at least the way I see it. Of course if it were on course for land I wouldn't be as enthusiastic about its development.

...

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Please stick to the storm at hand. Gordon may very well end up a hurricane, but try to be realistic. It's going to be a small and compact circulation. It may go through RI but it won't be a Katrina, period. It just does not have enough time to get that large.

 

 

 

 

...and here I thought my expectation of a high end Cat 1 was sky high.

Come on Potential Tropical Cyclone SIX! I'm counting on you to become Florence within 24 hours! Note: It's almost certainly a fish storm with some minor impacts on Cape Verde. I see nothing wrong in rooting for it at least the way I see it. Of course if it were on course for land I wouldn't be as enthusiastic about its development.

Ahhh Now that's more like it.

Not really a weather observation but an observation nonetheless... I was looking into the night sky off the balcony of our vacation condo at Topsail Beach tonight gazing at the Moon when I noticed one of the planets to the upper right of the Moon. It appeared bright in the sky and its identification as a planet was easy because it did not twinkle. One brief internet search later I identify the planet as Mars and to beat it all the red planet is making it closest approach since 2005! Fascinated my dad and I picked up our old pair of binoculars and brought them out to view it and to our surprise although it was a struggle to make out we could view the actual surface of Mars beyond it being a single point of orange-reddish light. Although we couldn't make out anything it had a somewhat definite surface. Apparently it won't be as close as it was tonight until 2287 according to this article. https://www.space.com/41329-mars-closest-to-earth-2018.html