BlunderStorm

Overnight we've gone from little more than a trace of snow to 2 inches and still climbing in JC. Roads with the exception of main thoroughfares have gone white but the plows are starting to catch-up. I have no morning update for Honaker but as of midnight 1.8 inches had accumulated on the deck so I imagine things are looking fluffy back in SWVA to say the least.

Downslope heating from the blue ridge this season has been an experience. Grass has been green since 10AM in downtown Johnson City. Precip was a fine mist between 12-3 but we're finally back to getting flakes.

Interesting clouds in JC this evening. Maybe it's a sign 

I don't trust rain measurements on my weather station but it's showing 2.51 inches.

The primary axis of precip is very stubborn. About 50 miles south of short range models and lifting at a snails pace. Quite a gully washer. The longer it drags the less of a reprieve until the cold front arcs the line of precip back over. Not looking good.

In what can be described as a massive overperformance temperatures have stayed under forecast with noon sitting at 33 in Honaker with very wet flakes falling. Nearly 5 inches of snow at 2100ft has fallen since the early morning hours compacting to 4 inches.

(image and measurements compliments of my sister)

Unfortunately, I'm missing this one sitting in JC enjoying a nice cold drizzle.

Big flakes falling at moderate to high rates. The previous snowpack partially survived and is being built upon again! Thus far it seems the upgrade to WSW was locally justified.

29.5F / 27DP

13 minutes ago, zcarland said:

Can anyone explain to me, in a dumbed down way, why these systems are prone to under perform in like the TRI area. Is it dry slotting? If so, what is that exactly?


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This is a question better suited for carver but I think a big factor in it (not all) comes down to bad luck over the past decade. One factor that can limit systems is increased distance from the gulf and maybe some slight rain shadowing from the blue ridge. That ignores generally more favorable historic climatology overall though. As for the models I don't know if it's recency bias but they do seem to provide more amped solutions than reality. (though part of that is the illusion of attributing all snowfall as accumulation which doesn't account for mixing, compression, and surface melt.)

Strong snow showers have returned this morning, conditions remain ideal with a temp of 26 and dp of 22. Visibility is down to half a mile which I'd consider moderate. The status of the road has been an ongoing battle all night with it starting to turn white again. The trucks will be back in force soon hopefully. No measurements yet but all spots are north of 6inches deep I'd estimate.

It's currently 27.1 with a dp of 24.4. The day ended with a total of 2.7 inches. Since then a final 0.1 inches have slipped to the surface. It would be fair to consider the event here an underperformance though not quite a bust as the storm had strong effects on travel and had built upon the last storm. I suspect some NW flakes may have something to say about it later tonight or tomorrow but as of the last hour it's been drizzling. Not even 37 N was completely safe from the WAA haha. The primary issue was the weak precip shield whether it was lack of moisture or limited lift. The day was beautiful and with this final glaze the half foot snowpack will only become more resilient. It's been fun seeing the results of this one.

It's been a steady battle. Snow accumulation stands at roughly 2.5 inches as of now

How's the new wave looking Tri-Folks?

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Not much overhead on any surrounding radar sites but getting hands down the best rates of the day. 

Good to know that new break in MRX radar isn't dry. Was worried you and John were about to get cut again. I'm finally in the old dry slot but it's been consistent light snow since the first moderate wave passed.

It's not too often you glance at an NWS hazard map and get greeted with a solid wall of pink WSW.

It's been 2 hours since things got started, I've thus far measured an inch of new snowfall. Temps holding steady at 23F with a dp of 20.

1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Well scratch that all goose feathers now!  Very nice!

I'm not far behind up here. The road is officially white and we've got nickels and dimes now!

THE HAMMER HAS DROPPED. We're nearly 2 hours ahead of schedule. The ceiling fell fast with column saturating quick starting with moderate rates and small flakes. It is currently 23F with a dp of 18.

The calm before the storm...

As things stand at 11 the current snowpack stands at 3 inches. Temps have shot up to a more reasonable 21F at 73% humidity.

I imagine the purpose of this thread today is Nowcasting and weather model verification.

Starting off today overcast at a frigid 11F this morning with 81% humidity. Things are primed for this afternoon.

8 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

Now, if only NWS Blacksburg would be willing to include Tazewell and Smyth counties in a WSW...  The microclimates usually shift crossing between the Tennessee and New River valleys.

Wow looks like Blacksburg read my post, they specifically added Tazewell and Smyth counties along with the blue ridge counties.

In all seriousness I am glad they are treating this system seriously.

3 hours ago, BuCoVaWx said:

Dickenson and Buchanan counties are a part of Charleston WV NWS. They had talked about issuing advisory but changed their minds to Winter Storm Warning instead. They usually wait til the last minute to issue warnings down here.

Now, if only NWS Blacksburg would be willing to include Tazewell and Smyth counties in a WSW...  The microclimates usually shift crossing between the Tennessee and New River valleys.

The 6z Ukie 10:1 looks good staying true to its prior run but leaves some to be desired for SWVA folks. The 9z RAP meanwhile was perfect for SWVA but left Chatty and some other eastern valley locations a bit sketchy.
 

4 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

Could you post a map?

GFS sticks to its guns and ups totals slightly.

6z GFS rolling