BlunderStorm

It still ain't pretty but is that a slight NW jog I see on the 12z GFS? I'm playing in the 4th quarter of the state championship football game 20 points down with 7 minutes on the clock about to give an onside kick!

25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z RGEM says “suppression? What suppression?”

warm nose partly into SW VA based on snow maps. 

Oh it brings back the precipitation but not in a good way. That some devastating ice for Russell at the last hour. With that said it spits sleet over my roof instead of freezing rain so SOLD!

The NAM 3km says hold on a second and stays similar to 6z.

12 minutes ago, Freezing Fog said:

I'm not sure if I should like this for it's relatability. Send a laugh reaction for the irony.  Say thanks for summing my thoughts. Consider myself as confused regarding trends. Or put a sad reaction for the harsh reality of the situation! Ah, I think I will go with laughing! xD 

Well it's going to take a miracle. I'll be looking for any last minute jogs north on the modeling for the next 18 hours. When there is less than 24 hours until the event I'll shift to watching the radar and the occasional HRRR model run. Folks at my school are confused with some people mumbling about 2 feet of snow and others mumbling of none and everything in between haha!

Latest NAM 12km compared to the last two runs before it at 48 hours. 

Well I've went from expecting 6-10 inches to nothing over the course of 6 hours. To tell you the truth I think this is all she wrote.  Not a lot to add atm that you guys haven't already said.

 Watching computers attempt to hone in on what truly occurs has been a headache. You can disregard the NAM in the long range and argue the bias of the FV3 (still experimental) is likely to be revealed. The CMC is not seen as the most reliable model by a long shot. The GFS and UKIE suddenly seem a lot more sensible relative to the other guidance now. The ECMWF model regarded as the best global model has forecasted a disappointment for the amount of moisture available, the duration of the event, and latitude at which the precipitation shield passes. The past few days have been a roller coaster ride of lows and highs. Today at 12z I thought the euro had finally settled on a general idea of what we would have after it rebounded north from another disappointing run last night. I was wrong. The idea of being able to foresee the weather more than a few days out is greatly challenged especially when it comes to winter weather. Suddenly the idea of this winter storm dropping 10 in. of snow in far southwestern Virginia seems foolish.  I thought that if things turned away from my favor it would be a gradual action over the course of a couple of runs rather than all at once. If there was a word I could use to describe my demeanor most accurately it would be deflated. Ever since possibly 2015 I do not believe I have seen more than 10 inches of snow on the ground. It's all a mirage. I get to see regions with much more hostile climates enjoy winter storms while I sit in the doldrums. How hard can it be over the course of over 1000 days to have something close to a foot of snow on the ground. The Tennessee Valley just can't seem to get a break. For clarification 10 inches was on the higher end of my expectations but the euro went below 6 inches for that matter. If 0z is reaffirmed by 6z and 12z MRX may as well scrap the watch up here. To any of you who actually manage to get significant snowfall if 850s don't torch I will be happy for you.  If this comes to fruition my peers whom I shared my thoughts with will dismiss them. I emphasize the likelihood of a major winter storm and 2.5 in falls. So much analyzing so much consideration over many many days and just an inch more than the random snow squall that hit a few days ago occurs...  In some manner I would feel better if it was raining overhead rather than with little to nothing occurring at all at least then I could say "If it had just been 2 degrees colder I'd have pinned this down." FOR JUST ONCE CAN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM VERIFY! AHH!  Sigh... I'm glad I got that rant out of my system. There is no point in shaking your fist at the clouds as no matter what we do or say it'll do what it's a gonna do. Mankind's methods of foretelling how the atmosphere may behave are inherently flawed. I'll stop complaining and post more thoughtful speculation to the best of my ability. I find this hobby very satisfying and I have learned so much from all of you. All I can say is thank you for all the collective effort you all have put into our tiny sub-forum. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

What time is the Euro running?  I think I am going to gut it out and stay up....Like 12:50?

1:00 AM and about 20 minutes or so to figure out how this goes. Of course that's on free weather.us. Speaking of the storm I'm still feeling a bit uneasy in terms of suppression and warm layers. It's seem too good to be true but the solution is supported so I must follow it. I think if everything goes without any unforeseen tricks that knock down snow accumulation (which I'm still 50-50 on) 10 in of heavy wet snow will fall IMBY when all is said and done. As a forecaster I would mark it... 6-10 in.

Time for the Euro and FV3 to slide in and cave ruining our hopes and dreams with the GFS standing triumphantly along side the all seeing ICON. In all seriousness though 

...PLEASE DON'T CAVE!

It's shocking to see it showing this stuff within short range model territory. Everything is still on the table for NE TN and SW VA from a whiff to being plastered.

WCYB's forecast.

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Will cash out now


.

It just casually drops 17 inches. I'll take 1/3rd of that and still call it a victory.

A few flurries out of no where passing by. That marks Thursday as a trace.

5 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Just glanced at GSP's disco and updated maps. AVL peeps are on weeniecide watch. Total accumulation was cut by ~60% between the AM and PM forecast packages across WNC. 

Ouch...

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

They rarely mention us unless it's supposed to snow here and no where else. They also seem to divide the area often by saying the north or the south part of their area. But they seem to refer to Tri as their north. I'm further north than Tri but they don't seem to mean this area when they say north.

I hate that MRX does that. Is there anyway you could send them a message regarding the lack of acknowledgement on the northern plateau?

4 minutes ago, Coach B said:

That is cool! You have a link to that for the rest of the state?

Just search up colored elevation relief maps of tennessee and you should find it. There is one of every state however the colors for altitude vary with each state. If I posted one of Virginia relative to the the Tennessee one I would look like I was at the same elevation as Kingsport.

28 minutes ago, John1122 said:

My area has really taken a nosedive in the last 12 hours. Lordy. This will go down as the biggest model swerve I've ever seen if the 12z suite is correct and their trend continues. It's probably going to change how I approach the weather hobby as it is essentially pointless to even check a model outside of 48 hours for the Valley region if you want more than a general idea about the pattern at 500.

I share your sentiment with this. Though I am still staying optimistic.

8 hours ago, John1122 said:

The Euro has the second system again tonight. Looks like it drops 3-5+ on the Plateau and Mountains.

It would be fun to have this storm come through and segue to another storm the weekend after next. If it's still there in a couple of days we might as well transition our focus to that as soon as the snow or lack thereof is done.

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z NAM is rolling and about into territory where we don't trust it much.  However, of note it has sped up over several runs.  

I bet if it involves slashing totals north of the Tri-Cities it'll be legit! 

What has caused it's southern jog and lowered duration? I'm not surprised by the limited snow but if it keeps this up by tomorrow I'm going to be staring at a near miss... (In other words I'm not upset about where we are now in regards to the ECMWF but rather where I think this is going.) This looks like a warning shot. If this slipped away it would leave me so jaded I wouldn't trust anything less than 3 days out. Well goodnight I expect to wake up to cliff diving material and hope to wake up to status quo on the 06z runs.

Right now I'm hoping for some really low high temps over the next 3 afternoons leading up to the event. There is no better surface for snow to land on than snow itself and if I end up at the tip of the warm nose dealing with a mix I'm gonna need something frozen on the ground to make it stick. That's wishful thinking though... I'm sure 90% of it will have either melted or sublimated away by that point. The good news is even if the snow does melt it's going to leave the ground very cold allowing for accumulation to start up easier.

If your up at this point you might as well stay for the euro and hopefully the full release of the FV3.

The precipitation shield varies some in it's depiction between tropical tidbits and pivotal weather at 84 hours. Either way I like what I'm seeing but of course it's the long range nam soo... 

Welp time to run through 0z starting as usual with the NAM.