BlunderStorm

That's encouraging news to read up here. Precip is closing in and will arrive in ~30 minutes. Whether it will be snow, sleet, or rain at the onset is yet to be seen. I measured a temperature of 30 when I left home at eight.

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think I found the perfect point/click forecast there (well, perfect as long as you have an underground generator and food):

This Afternoon

Snow showers. High near 27. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind around 70 mph, with gusts as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. Low around 20. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 90 to 95 mph, with gusts as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 29 to 35 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. High near 27. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 70 to 80 mph, with gusts as high as 120 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.

 

Essentially a freezing hurricane.  At that point I would say you would probably want to barricade your doors and windows.

1 minute ago, 1234snow said:

Starting to see some potential for some flakes or a mix tomorrow morning and afternoon for NE TN and SWVA. The NAM, RGEM, and FV3 all show the possibility for some mixed precip before the warm air pushes in.

Perhaps a quick burst before a quick transition? I love it when these surprise events are shown but they rarely pan out.

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

For your browsing pleasure (or pain):

 

Ahhh, that hits the spot. I've had enough of this holiday warmth.

After 3 A.M. I had to tap out for the night. I briefly woke up at 5 and only sleet had fell. Supposedly my family said they saw some snow falling but only enough to be considered a trace. While I was asleep the temperature spiked to 37 and is now 35. Up to 3706' on the mountains I see no snow.

The temperature upticked to 32. Right now it is all virga. The radar looks better than any model right now so that's good.

Currently sitting steady at 30. I wonder if John has seen anything? Oh and as for the radar that is definitely an ostrich.

Today's low temperature was 14 with a heavy frost. Any grass that grew just got taken care of if yesterdays snow wasn't enough. EDIT: I went back and realized the station recorded a temperature of 12 before sunrise.

Nothing of any observational or speculative value. I am really hoping this storm comes in low and the dry slot is overblown at the onset of the storm. As of now in order here it looks like snow showers early Saturday morning before it dries out and remains overcast for the rest of the morning and afternoon. Maybe I record a few tenths of an inch. This is followed by precipitation filling in again during the evening starting as a mix and transitioning to rain by midnight. Sunday is entirely characterized by steady temps in the mid 30's with rain showers and a lot of cursing the sky. (lol) Just as things begin to dry out early on Monday a few snow showers pass by with lingering flurries up until noon on Monday amounting to a dusting. Eh, I'll take it.

A good dusting on the ground this morning. Certainly more than the few rogue flakes I was expecting. It was Enough to record it as 0.1 inches. The low temp was 18.

Ahh, it's looking like it's at last time to rise from my warm malaise. 

Good golly... The high for New Years Eve 2018 is 72. That's probably a record broken!

25F with Calm winds and a partly sunny sky. Not a white Christmas but certainly silver one. The ground is coated in a heavy layer of frost and snow is visible on the higher mountaintops over 3,000 ft. 

I wish you all a Merry Christmas!

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Nice big heavy flakes coming down in Bristol. Keeps this up for long and 3-4 inches looks very doable.

Already half an inch on the grass in Honaker. It's still 33 though and the pavement is having none of it. haha.

It's fell fast to 35 and is now mixing. Sundown along with the continuation of the CAA should send it below freezing hopefully.

Update: Wow, that was quick. As of 3:00 it is 33 and mostly snow. A little colder than modeled.

9 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

Ping reports show switch over in Wise and Boone. Very crudy day

40F at 2100ft. It's going to be an uphill battle for snow here. At least the solar could not possibly be anymore favorable. Happy winter solstice! The exact time is 5:23 PM this year.

Up here I could have a legit winter weather advisory event if the temps drop fast enough. I've been keeping quiet about it so maybe it won't jinx me.

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think that's (Wayne Browning?) High Knob Landform (https://www.highknoblandform.com/)  guy. I love his blog. Based on topography I could see how High Knob could kill Big Stone Gap's snow. Still unbelievable how "microclimate" that must have been if Wise got snow and BSG did not.  Wise ought to be downsloped too, I think. I guess there is that big hill between the two on hwy 58. 

Awesome that a local paper is publishing info about things like ageostrophic forcing.  

Is "Thermally Indirect Mesoscale (TIM) Circulation" a thing? Works for me, but haven't heard it before. 

AND High Knob got 40" !!!!!

amazing. 

At that point when we are talking about such localized areas the idea of microscale meteorology comes into play. Where even the hills begin to cause a significant effect on the weather in a given location. The truth is the effects of these mountains are always in play always affecting the weather. It's just that winter storms especially with borderline temperatures can better visualize this effect with the amount of snow. A difference between 72 and 75 degrees is negligible but a difference between 32 and 35 degrees can mean all the difference between a dreary day with some snowflakes passing by and being absolutely buried. In a few years time in this hobby I have learned to respect the influence of terrain on microclimates. This storm only furthered my perception of the importance of location especially in regions with mountainous terrain. It leaves me to wonder how anyone could accurately forecast for an area in a major mountain range like the Rockies or Alps.

3 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Did anyone on the east side of the state feel the earthquake this week????  

John did I believe.

On 12/11/2018 at 9:03 AM, Blue Ridge said:

Incredible. Looks like KTRI bottomed out at 14°, while Abingdon dipped to 9°.

Meanwhile, a PWS in Bristol, VA, recorded a low of 4.3°, while a PWS in Meadowview, VA recorded a low of 2.6°. Obvious cautions about relying on PWS data apply.

I only recorded a low of 16 this morning. Was there an inversion? I can believe the airport and Abingdon could have reached their low's respectively but I am very doubtful of the other two low temps. As for the earthquake, I have nothing to report except catching Z's. I wish I had felt it.

So temperature wise where do we stand across the forum and how do you all think we will stand by the end of the month?

The map really nails the Clinch, Powell, and South Holston snow holes. It is right on the dot with my 3" total. 

Snow depth wise I peaked this morning at 2.8". Snow Accumulation wise yesterday afternoon I peaked at 2.4" before drizzle melted it for a little over an hour to 2.2". So a little over half an inch fell around midnight. If I add up the 0.2" lost to melting and the additional snow I get 3". Mission achieved haha!

The latest FV3, and CMC still support some mountain snows next weekend. This may be worth a glance or two at this point. EDIT: I moved this here because I selected the wrong topic a little while ago.