BlunderStorm

Per Carver's suggestion I figured it wouldn't hurt to spark a little thread seeing as how It's looking to be an interesting Monday for communities in the higher elevations. Here's to a wonderful start to the meteorological winter season! As of Midnight I can currently record a trace with temps currently sitting at 37. Now for John's sake let's hope I didn't curse us... 

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think someone in one of the upslope areas should create an event thread or at least consider it.  If it winds up being a bust, no problem.  I think the Smokies are going to get sauced.  Looks like Roan Mountain already has a heavy band up.  I talked to someone in the foothill communities and they have rain already(prob will switch over).   I will be shocked if actual valley locations get too much.  That said, we could get a dusting to an inch.  I never do well with upslope.  Northwest facing communities on the Plateau and near the Smokies might do well enough to make a thread necessary. Heck, I will be living vicariously through you all anyway.  Planning on maybe making a run up to Roan Mountain on Tuesday to see if I can get some snow pics.

,Last minute before Midnight I suppose I'll do it!

Temperatures have been dropping steadily over the past two hours from 51 to 44. Glad to be back!

After looking back on the recorded low for today if my weather station is to be believed. (Kinda skeptical) It dropped to 8 this morning. Regarding additional snow beyond midnight, from what I measured in the morning I got an additional tenth of an inch. As of now I'd say I still have roughly an inch on the ground. (I live on a north-facing slope.)

As the final total for the 12th I recorded 2.2 inches with flurries still falling on the measurement tile. In the grass I measured as much as 4 inches in some places. Currently I'm sitting at 16 degrees with the possibility of reaching single digits for a low tonight. It was nice to see old man winter finally return. I'm glad most folks in our region got some (or a lot) of flakes as well. Hopefully this sets the trend for the upcoming winter.

And just like that I've been getting slammed with NW flow snow for the past hour under the radar. Needless to say no final measurements will be taken yet.  Currently in a snowsquall. 

After 5 in the morning I crashed and decided I would just wake'n see... and wow, I have to say this system did not disappoint. Currently sitting exactly at 1.8" on my level tile surface I use to scientifically measure. In the grass I got as much as 3"+. As of now there's still some nw flow action under the radar so another 0.2" to round the total out is completely possible. 

Currently in the middle of it at 31F. 0.25" of snow already on the grass with it beginning to take hold on pavement.

Currently in a dry slot in southwest Virginia just as the temps flipped to favorable conditions for snow. (Currently Flurrying) 33F as of now. As per the radar though it looks like things are reloading for a good couple hours of solid snow. 

Alright, guys it's great to be back after a busy day to enjoy this hobby we all share! Here's to an early start to the season!  Unless anyone objects I see no problem submitting observations.  Any more reports on the snow in West Tennessee? Currently sitting at 51 here with a drizzle. 

14 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I remember years past, mainly 70's and 80s of this occurring with arctic frontal passages. Several inches would fall , even in the lower elevations. 

38 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

I think, to a degree, what is causing the models to anticipate such a fast changeover to snow, is the strength of the High Pressure that is driving the system. A 1049-1050 High entering the US, like we have right now is not your normal high pressure. Even for January standards, that is not your average high pressure system. Even by the time it gets down to TX, it’s still 1043-1044! I’m not sure if we had a high that strong all winter last year. Hopefully it will be strong enough to push the cold air in as fast as the models are advertising! Time will tell.

49 minutes ago, bearman said:

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This is most likely the explanation.  I remember back in the 80's a similar setup when I lived in Cleveland.  MRX had us set to pick up their usual little or no accumulation.  The Arctic front roared in around midnight with high winds and 50 mph gusts. The cold air caught up with the remaining moisture.   Cleveland ended up with almost 4 inches of snow and Chattanooga got nothing. This is what makes it so hard to forecast snow totals around our area with so many micro climates.

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Just got around to reading MRX overnight discussion and it grabs my attention that they point out that significant forcing lags behind the front with the jet overhead. That makes me feel better about the precip enhancement post frontal passage that the mods are seeing

To sum up my thoughts after yalls input:

We're seeing support for significant moisture behind the front across the board when it comes to models (at least for eastern areas). Can it all be wrong? Maybe, climo is a force to be reckoned with. Perhaps someone could provide some insight?

Well, once we get to around 12-18 hours before an event, that's when I switch over to watch and see mode by beginning to monitor the radar and reported temps. It helps to watch the models but at some point reality has to take precedence. It appears that time will soon arrive.

With significant post-frontal snow looking increasingly possible for the northern and mid tiers of the Tennessee Valley under current modeling, going forward I figured I'd start ourselves a little thread dedicated to it and the potential early start to the winter season!  

Would it be a bad idea to create a forecast/nowcast/obs topic? A whiff is still very much on the table but...

12z Euro staying consistent! 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Is the weenie reaction emoji new(button you click to like a post)?  Maybe I have just missed it.  That should be fun.  LOL.

Yep, I love it already! 

Well looks like I'm recording a trace for Halloween to start the season! And to think 8 hours ago it was in the mid-70s (now mid-30s) What a day of weather!

If only... xD

After the snowstorm of December 2018 (I call it the Great Snow-Flop). I am more than familiar with downsloping especially from Clinch Mountain. What could have been 12-18" of potential snow was but only 3" of sleet mixed with snow. I never analyzed the exact conditions that resulted in the downslope event but it still crosses my mind from time to time and in most major winter storms this does not occur. As for observations my area has experienced a drop of 17 degrees in the past two hours. 59 as of me typing this. A good old fall cold front is always fun.

For all the cold in mid-latitudes across North America, It would seem the polar latitudes torch well into mid-Nov. It would seem the cold air is displaced as a result of the upper level pattern in the Bering Strait. I'm not the most qualified to speculate but perhaps should this verify It could be considered a short term gain and long term loss. (If cold air could be thought of as a limited resource that regenerates?) Regardless I'm looking forward to the weeks ahead weather-wise echoing what Carver said.

A little more fantasy snow before all-hallows eve: 

Today has been the quentessential fall day. The leaves are turning in a foggy Misty day in the upper 40s and low 50s in October. I think most of us can agree that today has been such a welcome change.

57F in Honaker this evening. The cold front has been a welcome relief. Over the last few hours 0.75 inches of rain has fell.

A few decent showers over the past couple of weeks have saved my area at least somewhat from the fate Jax has met. Though as he said this year is not too great for fall foliage. Hopefully with a couple shots of cool/cold air in the next two weeks we can see some decent color before all is said and done. Recent modeling remains encouraging with the transient pattern bringing surprises. Although it is perhaps less hawkish with the Monday front in more recent runs. (at least for the eastern half of the TN-Valley) Regardless, this switch up delivers what we all need most RAIN.