WarmNose

I think my wet bulb is around 32.9 right now. What are your thoughts on areas just south of 85 in Greenville county? Don’t see much wiggle room

Just hit the freezing mark. Forecast low is 31. No chance

“If only it were January” January: Rain “if only we could get one of those 1040+ HP’s” 1040+HP: Rain i think it’s best we just quit pretending we know more than we really do about the weather. There is no recipe for success when it comes to weather, only snow and rain. Success and failure. And we fail more times than not

441 was closed for several days after the early December storm. I traveled to Gatlinburg via 441 a week after the storm hit and Newfound Gap still had snow/ice on the road. It’s a whole different world up there

Yeah maybe if that happened us guys down in upstate SC would have something to track besides 33 degree rain

Who are you and where is Chuck?

My standing water is riddled with mosquitos and bullfrogs

Well you already got flurries this winter so you should be near that

Y’all go ahead and reel this one in. It’s a stepdown process. Where’s Chuck with that 84hr NAM? Still showing some blocking?

Chuck’s on board. All it took was the 84 hour NAM

Semantics. Still looks pretty solid

Sister in law lives out there. She sent a video and they were getting raked. She said they were right around 6”

Well, 00z GFS was a bad start. You can stick a fork in 2019 if that look tries to verify. Shut the ski slopes down too. Pitiful

00z GFS says “good luck getting that cold out of Canada”..Ensembles will save us

09’ redux? Sign me up!

I’m going to go ahead and drop some chlorine in the pool skimmer tomorrow afternoon. Won’t be long and I want it to be ready. The birds are on the move and the pollen won’t be far behind.

Bingo. The GEFS can’t hold a look for 6 hours. I’ll bank with the Euro for now even though I am admittedly buying what the GEFS is selling. The pattern evolution is pretty evident. When/whether it translates downstream or not is still to be determined

Now JB is using 1984 as a stratwarm analog..I still think we get a storm in the first 1/3rd of February but this is just tiresome. Time to abandon ship for a while

I’m picking up what you’re putting down. It’s been one heathy rain event after another. I’m not so sure these types of juicy (Niño) waves will be able to produce around here. We definitely need something flat. Every rain event here in the past several months has been 2”+ storm rainfall amounts. Blocking will be crucial as well as stout HP’s dropping into the plains to keep our southern waves from exploding. Much like our early December event (except with BLOCKING). It’s never easy getting a big dog around here and I don’t think this year will be any different, but I am hopeful. Euro weeklies looked If I was in the MA it would be hard to contain my excitement

Says the camp who blames man when a hurricane hits a teeny tiny little piece of the US. Super duper helpful

I see the heat mongering has been tempered here in the past few weeks. I’ll just leave this here

While It sucks being just south of 85 in the upstate, we do at least get a couple inches when places throughout NC get absolutely smoked. It could be worse. A little further to my south is Greenwood SC and their climo is probably as bad or worse than Miami Florida

I’ll be in Maggie Valley this weekend. Is there an outside chance at some snow showers on the backend Saturday? Not sure how these things usually play out in the high country. Very borderline. Looks like rain to me. Maybe someone can chime in

Models have been trying to kill that western ridge for over a month. It never disappears for more than a couple days. We may hit some transient mild periods but I see no major torch in the near future

The higher the snowpack, the warmer it gets? Sounds like a reach