SnowDawg

The Clipper on the 3rd is quietly trending a little bit more robust on the GFS, especially for the NC/TN mountain counties.

UK looked like the GFS at 12z. Will be curious to see how the NAO block looks on the 0z run when it comes out on wxbell, can only see CONUS view on pivotal. GFS is clearly feeling the west based NAO, cause it wants to cut but it just keeps forcing it due west to east.

Yep, soil temps affecting snow is a complete myth as long as we aren't talking very light snow. These are the conclusions from a NWS study on it when they found forecasters with this bias were partly responsible for underestimating snow forecasts. Note in the second conclusion the highest was a soil temp of over 54 degrees and still didn't inhibit accumulations. Most of us are well below that.

Also, the big Miller A behind it was very close to a triple phase.

The 6th storm came south that run, almost had a Miller B look to it instead of a pure cutter. As depicted it's showing sleet/zr in cad region but based on these 850 temps I actually think WNC, NE GA, and parts of the upstate would probably be snow/sleet. Surface temps are mid-upper 20s. Definitely need to watch the trends on this one.

The only thing that's changed at all thus far is the handling of the individual pieces of energy, which we know are still at a timeframe that they are definitely still wrong and will continue to change, good or bad. Facts are the advertised H5 pattern is the best we've seen since even before this snow drought started, and it looks to be a rather extended one. I hated today's trends too, but the changes were very minimal overall just very different sensible weather. The timing hasn't changed, and no cans have been kicked. I don't agree that past disappointment is a valid reason to just throw out all reasonable analysis, and act like this isn't a fantastic pattern. If you've got to, then there's other threads for that I guess. Do all great patterns produce? No, but many do. Belive me if we get to the last week of January and this has all went to crap I'll have my fair share of venting and frustration to post as well and I'll see you guys there. But for now I'm gonna try and enjoy this hobby, without being miserable.

Right now it all comes down to that southern energy not getting stuck out west. We need it to eject at the right time to not get squashed. Again, hopefully the H5 look is right cause it should reload a few times giving us more chances even if that one fails.

Not entirely surprising I'd say. I think we knew more often than not the extreme cold tends to moderate some as we close in. Still beyond cold enough for winter weather. Track, timing, and intensity all need to lineup for that though.

Same on Wxbell

Big drop in QPF, looks suppressed. Huge QPF spike out over the Gulf of Mexico. I'm betting most members followed the op in shearing out/leaving behind the southern energy.

Definitely need to watch how that CAD trends on the 6th system. As we know global models at this range often underestimate it and still it had most of the prime CAD region in the mid to upper 20's. Could be a nasty sleet/zr setup.

Another run with our southern piece of energy getting cutoff and left behind out west. This is our most likely path to failure on the Miller A potential. Without getting even a partial phase, it'll be too northern stream dominant. That's why it's important that the H5 look come to fruition, cause we should get more than one shot at it.

I'm sorry but the 6th has never really been the threat. Just because a few op runs have tried to show it doesn't make it so. As Eric Webb said yesterday this is a classic step down winter pattern that we've seen a thousand times in the south. 1: Clipper (3rd/4th), 2:Cutter with CAD potential (6th/7th), 3: Miller A potential anywhere from the Gulf coast to the mid-atlantic 8th-10th. As for the ensemble means, looking at the meteograms the Miller A threat itself hasn't budged. The reduction in means is largely due to outlier members showing significant snows from the Clipper/cutter dropping, as should be expected.

Biggest failure on the GFS is not enough separation between the stage setting storm on the 5th/6th and the trailing wave. We need a full day or two between them instead it's right on its tail which one prevents the cold from pushing in ahead of it and doesn't give it room to truly amplify. We want the first one to clear through and enhance the 50/50 low to entrench our cold air, then have our trailing wave move in along th thermal boundary. Way too small of a detail to worry at this time, models could still be struggling to key in on specific pieces of energy. Main thing is that the H5 look is still consistent, and is a look that historically has been kind to us.

Several rounds of winter weather on the 18z gfs and another on the way in as the run ends.

Very well might have followed that up with our big dog from last night had the energy not got left behind in the SW.

Also, I want a big dog as much as anybody. But going on 3 years without snow, after never going a single winter without before, I'd be thrilled just to get an inch or two from a potent clipper. Hell an aggressive flizzard would probably be enough to put a smile on my face lol.

The means go up and down with every run. Especially the GEFS and it's underdispersal bias, and tendency to be over influenced by individual members compared to the EPS. At this lead time H5 is all that matters, and nothing has changed in the last few days other than actually a few minor adjustments for the better. I believe the first storm around the 6th cutting could actually be crucial to enhancing the 50/50 ahead of the second one. Then it all comes down to timing a phase, always hard to do, but the block and 50/50 can make it easier. Betting on cold and dry is smart though if you don't wanna be let down. It's always the easiest outcome.

At least with this one unlike most, the ensembles started barking first. Never any guarantees and I'm sure we'll see some back and forth, but this is as good a signal as we've seen in a very long time. Nice to at least have something worth talking about.

Just ridiculous... High ratio snow in the mountains and foothills.

Holy smokes Euro.... Just an absolute perfect system. If only that was under 5 days.... This whole board deserves to end this drought on a storm like that.

You need to just keep asking for things please, cause seems the models just keep delivering on the very next run lol. I mean wow....about as perfect of a fantasy snow storm I've ever seen.

Overall a great look at this lead time. I'd take my chances that the stout 50/50 along with the arctic highs coming down would force that track a little further south. Regardless meaningless details at this point. Takeaway is pattern is there to support a miller A system.

New EPS snow mean. Starts around the 5th and just adds on nonstop through the end of the run. Getting multiple threats in this window could be huge, since as we all know we fail far more than we succeed.