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AMZ8990

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    Hurricane Florence Discussion Thread

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

    It is pretty amazing to see how many of the models struggled w this system, even at one point taking it agains the Gulf Stream current.  Steering mechanisms were were/are weak and this has caused many problems w forecasting the storm.  Overall, still amazing that we can model a hurricane these days.  The storm has spread out according to the main Florence thread.  This has made it next to impossible for the system to restrengthen.  We want it as weak as possible for the folks on the coast.  Still, extended times w winds and multiple high tides is not a good recipe.  Bout "go time" for the coast....

    I with you on your coast comment, it’s not even worth risking it.  Get out while you can and just play it safe.  The power outages are gonna cause serious issues as well, especially with the amount of rain being forecastEd.  Down power lines and standing water do not mix well.  The winds pinning the water inland is not going to help at all either.  Overall, just cause the storm has weakened that does not mean the effects will get better because of that weakening.  That’s a scary thought.

    • Like 3

    Fall Speculation 2018

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

    If you haven't tried it, click on the very first post of the thread and it "should" let you change the title.  I will tag @Mr Bob and see if he can help.  (Mr. Bob, we are just cleaning up some threads by separating fall from winter.  Maybe we can pin both the fall and winter threads?)  AMZ...if you can fix it, I will just delete the post.  

    Got it, thanks for the help buddy.  I’ve been trying to figure that out for the longest. lol

    • Like 1

    Fall Speculation 2018

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

    Thanks!  I will put My Weeklies updates here.  I think this will be easier.  

    No Problem Carver, I look forward to your update.  I tried to edit the winTer thread to take fall out of the heading but it would not let me edit the thread Title.    I Hope it’s not too confusing for everybody.

    Fall Speculation 2018

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Alright guys/gals.  Here is our Fall speculation thread.  We decided to create this thread so we can keep the winter spec thread on winter topics.  On a fall note,  looks like the next 5 days will be at or above average temps wise, but by day 6 we start getting some cooler temps incoming.  I for one hope the cooler weather continues to push into our forum.  I’m ready for some fall weather.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 2

    Long Range Winter Speculation 2018/19

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

    AMZ, would you be willing to change the Florence thread to Fall Pattern and flip this one back to winter speculation?  edit...OR just make this the winter spec thread, keep the Florence thread, and create a fall pattern thread.

    I can handle that.  I’ll have it done soon.

    Long Range Winter Speculation 2018/19

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

    I highly doubt the track, once inland, is nailed down yet.  NE TN was on the left side of the cone two days ago.  Now, we are on the right.  I don't have a ton of confidence that this is going to go where it is currently modeled(once inland).  I do think it is going to meander - and that is not good for the communities in the SE US wherever that happens.  What we really need to hope for is that this storm picks up speed and does not stop.  I think the mountains of NC (southwest corner to northwest corner) need to really watch this.  Seems that one constant is that they are increasingly at risk of flooding rains of maybe an unusual scale.  It is still possible that Florence actually misses the southern Apps w a southern trend.  But again, w low steering currents this is going to have a mind of its own so to speak.  Interesting to follow but very concerned for coastal communities of the SE coast as this storm will slowly(and I mean slowly as modeled) move on shore after first making a SE jog(still not totally sure I buy that).  The Gulf Stream will fuel that storm in the northeast quadrant even if part of the storm is barely onshore.  Downsloping winds will be the story here.  That would likely mean that the eastern side of the eastern TN Valley would see less rain but decent downsloping winds.  Not sure what would happen when those winds hit the upslope of the Plateau, though I think I know what it should do which is rain.  Once the remnants of Florence move into Tennessee per the Euro, then NE TN gets rain.  Still, uncertainty is the key word.  Nothing set in stone, though like I said, the mountains of NC need to really watch this.   @Math/Met, would the 0z Euro create a tropical induced (sorry...don't know of a better term) mountain wave even in places like Camp Creek?  

    Could the Bermuda high help any in giving this storm some push in the right direction.  Or are we past the point where the high could effect Florence now?

    Long Range Winter Speculation 2018/19

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

    I think MRX's wording is excellent... 

    
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Hurricane Florence will
remain the focus of the long term forecast period. The mid/upper
level ridge will remain over our area for the latter part of the
work week.  Some mainly isolated convection will affect parts of the
area especially during the afternoon/evening hours, but most areas
will be precipitation free through Friday.  The track of Hurricane
Florence is still unclear at this point toward the end of the
period, but the official track brings what is left of it into our
vicinity by the latter part of the weekend and current models
suggest it`s remnants may bring significant rains to our area in the
Sunday through Tuesday time frame.  However, as steering currents
will be weak as Florence moves onshore and model solutions have been
erratic, there remains a high level of uncertainty as to the exact
track of this system once it comes ashore.  Will keep mention of
possible impacts from Florence in the HWO.

      I agree, carver.  Sure was a wild run from yesterday to this morning.  We all thought it was gonna come further south and it has.  I’ve got family in Charleston so I’m just hoping for the best for them right now.  This storm is something else though man.

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    On 8/14/2018 at 1:46 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

    It'll be a shellacking blizzard in DC that will make 1996 look like 2016.

     

      I lived in Maryland in 96, I was a kid but that storm was epic.  We lived out in a country area, are House was directly on the patuxent river (we could walk down to the beach from our back yard).  We also had a huge driveway that the majority off was a big hill with a slight turn in it midway down.  When that storm hit we were of course snowed in as well as all our neighbors.  My dad and his buddy who lived at the top off our driveway built a huge bon fire at the top and had everybody from our road come down and sled and enjoy the bon fire in the snow.  It was an epic night!

    • Like 1

    Long Range Winter Speculation 2018/19

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    19 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

    And I shouldn't be superstitious...but being in the bullseye in August just gives me a bad mojo feeling.  LOL.  The forum area on WxBell is depicted as -3F to -5F BN for DJF and 133-167% of snowfall(first flake to last flake).  The line for heavier precip is cut from Memphis to the Plateau and to the southeast of that.  The -5F bullseye is centered over Chattanooga - no lie.  I know @nrgjeff is rolling his eyes somewhere! To me, anytime I see -5F(below normal relative to averages) I scratch my head just a bit.  That takes a ton of cold to get that result.  I generally view -2F to -3F as a pretty cold winter.  Even -1F can make for a great winter provided we have moisture.  Just seems that recently our winters(barring a few exceptions) have had a substantial thaw that erases much of the BN temps.  Personally, I don't see -5F BN relative to norms...which makes me a bit skeptical and maybe makes me think I need to cut about 50% off those temp/precip numbers to account for hype.  I will gladly eat a serving of crow if wrong.

    If anything, their forecast is a good read and food for thought.  Past that, it is still August and things will for sure change...take w a grain of salt.

    Great read,  that is some serious cold!!  Models consistently keep upping percentages of El Niño, who knows what will happen though.  It is fun to play out how a winter like that would be for us though.  I really want to see a big time snow event, 6”+ in one storm type for us.  Maybe this is the year for our forum!  I tend to agree with your statement in your earlier post, NAO is gonna be a huge wildcard this year, lots oF implications one way or the other with how it goes.

    • Like 3

    Spring and Summer Banter 2018

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    5 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

    I really wish the NCAA and NFL would both have the same rules.Keep it simple.

    Too many egos for that to work.  I agree with you though, nfl is gonna sway the see saw too much with one of these rule changes eventually and then there gonna be screwed.  NCAA is a joke anyways.

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

    Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

    I have no idea w the -NAO...once we know that pattern has "flipped" to a more favorable regime, then I would feel more comfortable in making a prediction.  LR models are notorious for missing the NAO whether negative or positive.  It can change quickly at times without notice, but the QBO is the best "indicator" that I can find in giving us a hint.  The AMO might also.  I think ENSO will give us the best clue for the winter....it is not without its flaws, but that seems to give us a very good sign.   Right now, if forced, I would roll w Dec(AN slightly), Jan(normal-ish to very slightly AN), and Feb (BN).   Overall, I think the winter is slightly AN w plenty of rainy, dreary timeframes and chances for big snows(not nickel and dimed).  

    Great post,  Carver.  There’s definitely a lot of moving parts that go into a good winter.  I’m gonna have to look at the QBO a little more now that you said that.  I think Jax was talking about the QBO in one of his recent posts.  We should get some help for the solar minimum as well.  Although I don’t think it’s fullblown this year.  

    • Like 1

    Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, John1122 said:

    The -NAO/-AO is going to eventually return for winter, but it's a believe it when I see it thing for me at this point. 

    This is the worst time of year for me weather wise, over the heat but knowing it's still got weeks and weeks to go. Fortunately it's not so bad right now. Generally spending a week in late July/August in the upper 70s isn't too bad at all and it looks like I'll be there for the next 5-6 days.

    It’s been pretty nice on my side if the state this week as well.  Hopefully it continues the rest of the month.  I’m with you on this being a tough time of year weather wise, the leaves changing can’t get here fast enough for me.  

    • Like 1

    Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

    As an addendum to that last post...the Weeklies at 500 are actually supported by the 0z operational/ensemble.  I missed that.  So, a warm-up during week 2 followed by more "cooler" weather to follow looks legit....GFS at 6z looked warm.  I still think it may verify a bit warmer than shown.  I am good as long as we don't have prolonged AN temps...makes for a brutal August if so.  Last year, August was tolerable.

    I’m with you on that, it’s always better to cruise through August rather than sweating buckets everyday.  

    Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

    It will be interesting to see if the Euro Weeklies(tomorrow evening) hold firm w a cooler extended forecast as some of the various operational runs and their ensembles do not have that look, including the 0z Euro ensemble mean.  

    I think we’re in for a cool down, ensembles have gone back and forth quite a bit similar to what we saw this past winter.  I think the writings on the wall though for a shift.  

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