AMZ8990

12 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Looking at the latest solar predictions this could be even more like the 2009-2010 winter.With a developing ElNino,like during the 2009-2010 winter we had our coldest winter here in over 30 years during this time in Nashville.If it happens or not we'll see.What's interesting to me is the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is at record proportion for the month of June -28.45,though this most certainly will change,it's never been this strongly negative this time of year

Interesting 

Looks like the Euro try’s to cool off significantly towards the end of its ten day run, potential flooding look for Chattanooga over to Atlanta around the 4th of August.  Still a ways out but North GA was showing 7.5 inches of rain for that timeframe, 2.5 for chatt!

2 hours ago, Knoxtron said:

I am pumped for college and NFL this year! Only one week until the NFL preseason... just a matter of time until cold crisp Saturdays singing rocky top!

Having said that, I expect UT to do slightly better this year than last.... low bar haha

I am just looking forward to not watching UT fall apart emotionally when we things dont work out perfectly.. hopefully Pruit can channel some Saban stoicism

 

Me too, it’s been a long offseason without football!  I think there’s more talent in the roster then people realize.  Now whether or not Pruitt can develop it is another question.  I do think he’s the guy to turn us around though.  It’s a big recruiting weekend this Saturday too, look for Tennessee to pick a few up right when the dead period ends.  As for NFL, my chargers are gonna get it done this year!!

It’s nearly football time in Tennessee folks.   Anybody besides me think Tennessee can surpise some teams this year??

On 7/21/2018 at 6:29 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

This whole pattern seems so unusual for late July.  At 500mb, it looks like a weird Miller B setup, low dropping in from the NW and then transferring to the coast, but in this case the coastal energy gets sucked back into the upper flow to the north and the parent upper low drops into a position south of the TN Valley. 

Ensembles showing (8-10 days out) a -NAO and a possible Gulf low.  Probably not good for severe weather folks, but hopefully it can bring some more cooling.  Fall's coming and I say gimme rain. 

Longer term, maybe this is evidence of the turning of the tide so to speak on the overall N. Hemisphere pattern? Pretty blocky pattern in across northern Canada right now for what can be the hottest part of summer. Not to say that it won't swing back to warm or hot again, but maybe a sign the ENSO balance is starting to shift. I don't mean to sound like I have some weird theory for this because I don't.  But we have been talking about this transition to El Nino for a while and maybe this is evidence that is finally starting to happen. 

We definitely have a great chance at seeing a developing El Niño start to influence our jet stream patterns soon.  I for one think we’re in for cooler temps over the next 2-3 months for the eastern US, with the West (particularly the west coast) getting locked into some heat. 

10 hours ago, John1122 said:

The SPC reasoning for the moderate risk area. It's crazy that there's an excessive heat warning right where the storms are getting fired up in Arkansas and West Tennessee. Memphis is supposed to have a HI around 115 today. I'm not sure I remember areas having excessive heat warnings and enhanced/moderate risk outlooks for severe at the same time.

 

I’m 60 miles east of Memphis and we’ve had thunderstorms every night this week. I work in Collierville which is technically south east Memphis but when I got to the golf course this morning the course was a mess.  We had standing water in a lot of areas, and limbs down everywhere.  It’s been pretty cool to watch these storms unfold and develop every night this week.  

Had a pretty intense storm Last night, came in around 2:30am this morning.  picked up around .65 in the rain gauge and some epic lighting strikes.  Had several that shook the house and I haven’t got that all year so far.   It was the strongest cell of the summer so far in my opinion.  Anyone else get anything this morning??

Got a good thunder storm last night around 11.  Rained steady for about an hour and we had some serious lighting going on.  Few limbs down but nothing substantial.  Might translate into a few storms for you guys across the east side of the state today.  Tomorrow looks like it’s gonna be wet in West Tennessee.  I haven’t looked at the severe outlook yet though for tomorrow. 

On 7/2/2018 at 1:31 PM, jaxjagman said:

You asked about the sea ice in another thread,figured i'd post it here,it's running below the Median right now

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-comparison-tool/

Thanks Jax!

Rain, sleet, snow, thunderstorms, regional climate, jet stream, La Niña, El Niño, polar vortex, ice pack, ETC.  anything that can have an affect on the two seasons in question is up for analysis and debate.  Our forum is one of the best at informing and teaching people as well as conversing with friends.  Let’s try to keep that going with this thread, and don’t forget a lot of people come to our threads just to learn.  As we have some very talented professional and novice Mets on our board.  Let the speculation begin!

On 6/20/2018 at 9:13 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Going to miss John Ward.  He was my eyes and ears for Tennessee football for many, many years.  He was awesome.

Amen Brotha.  He was a genuinely good human being and that is rare nowadays.  The stories from journalism and broadcasting guys who he helped out over the years is amazing.  He had a huge heart, and he was the best possible representative we could’ve had for Tennessee football. 

On 6/30/2018 at 11:50 AM, John1122 said:

Currently in a panel with an NASA astrophysicist who is talking about the extremely low sunspot activity we are approaching over the next 2 to 3 years as she is linking them to extreme cold out breaks. She feels we are going into an extended minimum and so far she's mentioned that the little ice age featured 4 consecutive extended minimums and that the year without a summer also featured an extended minimum.  She has also spoken about an extended minimum in the late 1970s that led to those winters, including a downward peak that featured a July snow event in Michigan.  The panel is almost over, but I wanted to write that out while it was still fresh. 

I’m glad you said that because I was thinking about our deep freeze outbreak we had last winter and I was wondering if that could be a sign of a pattern for the next few winters for us in the Tennessee region and surrounding forum areas.  The extended minimum that u spoke of is interesting.  A lot of people have talked about the cold we had in West Tennessee last winter and how they’ve never seen measurable snow/ice be on the ground for so many days in a row like we got last year.  It was an intense cold outbreak, i for one would love to see more if this over the coming years.  Preferably with much more moisture so we can all captilize on a big snow from Memphis to Bristol!!!

On 6/30/2018 at 5:18 PM, jaxjagman said:

Cool,i was watching the radar and it was starting to die out seemingly with the loss of diurnal heating as mentioned.That would have been a nice storm if not for timing.Though i can do without wind storms like that, that knock the power grids out like it did into Ky into some towns

Yeah.  I with ya on the power getting knocked out, that’s never a good thing.  Especially in those rural areas where people don’t have access to help like you would in a city environment.  Have you been keeping up with the ice pack up north any Jax??

22 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

You guys get any of the storm last night?They put us in a watch but i figured it would go west of us,it was dropping S from Kentucky.Seen some 80 mph winds on my radar in Southern Kentucky,70 mph towards the KY/Tn line into Tn but it looked like it was starting to weaken the further S it went,i went to bed by the time it got to you guys

Yeah we did, it came in late though.  Right around 11:30 the wind picked up out of no where and the rain blew in.  It wasn’t a gully washer but we got a steady rain for about 2 hours.  Not too much lightning but the wind was was enough to bring some Limbs down.  No trees came down to my knowledge though. 

On 6/24/2018 at 3:59 PM, jaxjagman said:

Yeah,i was taking a nap and missed it :(.I caught the storm on my radar after it passed Lawrence Co.But it as well put up a couple OFB's into Alabama and So.Middle Tn late afternoon,we can't get nothing here

Here’s to hoping you get a good one sooner rather than later.  With this heat it wouldn’t take much to get a good storm!

22 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I have a friend who lives in Loretto,Tn who shared some pics on my facebook page.Tore some of his shingles off his home,tore his gutter almost completely off and threw his trampoline across his yard into the woods,plus numerous trees uprooted,that was a violent storm that swept through like you said

Heck yeah man, hope your buddy was ok. It was intense, came in pretty quick too.  Once it started it was ON too.  I was at the golf course and within 15 minutes the fairways had 2 foot of standing water running threw them.  Guy had a tree go down right on his driveway that I noticed as I left out of the course too. 

Big time cell just came through Memphis Anout an hour ago.  Thunder, lighting, straight line winds, and some torrential rainfall.  Few trees down, Did not see any hail though, we got a severe thunderstorm warning from it but no tornadic activity to speak of I believe.  Might be something to watch though as the system pushes east towards everybody else on in forum area. 

Got some light snow showers pushin through the west side of the state now.  Pretty crazy to see daytime flurries at this time of year!!

5 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

We really need to cash in next weekend before the pattern flips.  If JB is correct we may have a break until Feb then the cold comes back until sometime in March.  

So true, perfect conditions over the next week.  We just need some moisture to come through!

2 hours ago, Will (little rock) said:

Living in Central Arkansas, I love the 12z Euro 

Going to change though lol

I live in West Tennessee, I liked the euro as well! Ha.  It showed 8"+ in MBY.  Fun to look at and think of the possibilities, Either way were due for an old school I-40 snow storm.  Here's to hoping that comes to fruition!!

28 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We have wasted at least .10 on warm bl temps already

Atleast your in the snow zone.  You could be getting the screw job right now like me!