AMZ8990

National Weather Service Nashville TN 1137 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 - High confidence in winter weather with travel impacts this weekend. Stay tuned for the latest. - Cold temperatures are expected to remain through early next week which will prolong impacts. - Scattered showers expected tomorrow/tomorrow night with precipitation remaining as rain. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 After a frigid start to the day, temperatures are climbing through the 20s this morning. High pressure is centered over the area but it will slowly move east this afternoon which will allow weak southerly flow to start. With that, temperatures will not be as cold tonight, but still expect lows in the 20s. A weak trough and associated surface low will approach on Wednesday dragging a weak surface front. Ahead of the front, the southerly winds will increase along with moisture. Models are showing medium to high chances of scattered showers starting Wednesday morning. The shower chances will linger into Wednesday night along the plateau. It looks like the precipitation will remain all liquid with this system. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Behind Wednesday`s system, temperatures will remain around normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure will slide eastward from the central plains and quickly move across the Ohio River Valley. Behind that, a reinforcing cold front will move into the area on Friday. This will set the stage for this weekend`s system. An upper level trough will be situated off the southern coast of California on Friday. Ahead of the trough, southwesterly flow will send anomalously high moisture through the southern plains and into the southeast. This will override the cold air that settles into our area on Friday. In addition, some of that energy is expected to eject out of the Baja region eastward on Saturday. There are questions regarding how much energy is ejected and if it phases with upper level energy coming out of Canada. Regardless, precipitation is likely to start as snow either Friday night or Saturday morning. The question is what happens after that. The model solutions that eject more energy out of the Baja develop a stronger inverted surface trough over the southeast and possibly reaching into our area. This would do two things. First, it would enhance QPF amounts and second, it would draw warm air northward which would bring ice and sleet into the picture. Right now, sleet and freezing rain chances are highest closer to the Tennessee/Alabama border but there is still a lot of variation in model solutions. So what are the key messages regarding this weekend? Bottom line... we have high confidence in winter weather with impacts this weekend. Go ahead and make preparations and don`t plan on traveling if you don`t need to. It is not a simple setup that gives us high confidence in snow or ice amounts. Yes, there are individual models that say a large portion of the area will receive a foot of snow. BUT, on the flip side, there are models that bring the warm air well into Middle Tennessee which would produce more freezing rain or sleet which would crush the hearts of snow lovers, but still produce significant impacts. Any precipitation that falls will likely stick around as the cold air will be entrenched into at least early next week. We`ll continue to monitor the forecast trends in the models, so stay tuned as there is still some time to figure this out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue for the taf period. The low level jet will increase after 06z introducing a window for low level wind shear at BNA/CKV/MQY. Surface winds will increase mid to late Wednesday morning allowing for the LLWS to subside. Light scattered showers could impact the terminals starting from west to east Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 38 27 49 34 / 0 0 70 40 Clarksville 38 26 45 30 / 0 10 70 10 Crossville 33 21 47 34 / 0 0 50 60 Columbia 40 25 49 35 / 0 0 70 40 Cookeville 33 23 49 35 / 0 0 60 60 Jamestown 31 21 48 33 / 0 0 50 50 Lawrenceburg 39 25 50 37 / 0 0 70 50 Murfreesboro 38 23 50 36 / 0 0 60 50 Waverly 38 27 44 31 / 0 0 70 20 &&

Scottie, I am sorry to hear that brother. Praying that God brings you new opportunities and the strength needed to get through this. Let us know how we can help you.

That’s gonna be a big dawg run by the looks of it. Clown map incoming

Yes, Mr Bob should have it pinned soon. He usually does it pretty quickly after a thread goes up. @Mr Bob

I saw one last night from one of the YouTube weather guys and he was beating the same drum.

It would definitely be a sight to see! Needless to say I-40 would not want to be your preferred route of travel if this were to come to pass.

Just went up

January 23-25, 2026 Winter Storm thread. Things are heating up so we decided to go ahead and make a dedicated thread to this upcoming winter threat. Appreciate everyone’s input

Definitely colder, at 144 those temps for our neighbors in Oklahoma and Arkansas were at a balmy 5 degrees. Low teens across the forum

QPF totals were insane on that UKMET run, over 2" in a lot of the forum!

I think the biggest positive is that we have most models on board with a winter storm for our general area. Details still need to be ironed out but the continuity is there amongst models for the most part. Nice to have something inside 7 days to track.

I want to say 2019 or 2020, it was 2 systems over 4 days and the first one started off as all ice and sleet then changed over to snow. That Bottom layer was 1.5” of ice with another 2” of snow on top of it, second system dropped 2.5-3” of snow with a little bit of sleet as well. Roads were frozen solid for a week straight. Kids were out of school for 8 days

To me It’s interesting to see all these record breaking winter storms across the world the past few weeks. Juneau Alaska had a record month for snow, we all witnessed snow train that dumped on Mammoth in cali, a once in a decade winter storm in Japan last week, places in Russia where people are tunneling out of their houses to their cars due to excessive snowfall.

Crazy run

We have plenty of potential over the coming weeks for some wintry weather. We Just have to be patient and let it all play out, I know it’s tough though! One thing I really enjoy about our forum is that we don’t have pity party’s when weather isn’t cooperating, unlike some of the other forums on this site. Collectively we have built a great community here in the Tn valley sub forum and I’m thankful for that.

Lock it in! That’s definitely a frame worthy model run